Risk - A Multidisciplinary Introduction

472 Pages·2014·11.086 MB·English

by  Claudia Klüppelberg, Daniel Straub, Isabell M. Welpe (eds.)

Risk – A Multidisciplinary Introduction
Claudia Klüppelberg (cid:2) Daniel Straub (cid:2)
Isabell M. Welpe
Editors
Risk – A Multidisciplinary
Introduction
Editors
ClaudiaKlüppelberg IsabellM.Welpe
DepartmentofMathematics TUMSchoolofManagement
MunichUniversityofTechnology MunichUniversityofTechnology
Munich,Germany Munich,Germany
DanielStraub
FacultyofCivil,Geo
andEnvironmentalEngineering
MunichUniversityofTechnology
Munich,Germany
ISBN978-3-319-04485-9 ISBN978-3-319-04486-6(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-04486-6
SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
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Introduction
Riskisamulti-facetedandcomplexphenomenon;onethatdefiespuredisciplinary
treatment and whose analysis and evaluation requires interdisciplinary competen-
cies. Recent events like the 2008 financial crisis, large scale black-outs in energy
supply systems, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the
earthquake/tsunami event triggering the Fukushima nuclear accident highlight the
factthatrisksareincreasinglycausedbythecomplexandinterconnectednatureof
today’ssocietiesandtechnologies.Oneofthemajorconclusionsdrawnfromthese
andmanyothereventsisthestrongneedforimprovingtheinterdisciplinaryanaly-
sis,evaluation,managementandcommunicationofrisk.
Riskandsecurityissueshavealwaysbeenimportantinmodernsocieties;butthey
re-emergeandchangeshape,involvingnewissuesduetorapidandunprecedented
technologicalandclimaticchangesorpoliticaldevelopments.Thesedevelopments
cause major challenges to identification, understanding and management of risk.
Whiletraditionaltasks(e.g.reliability,availabilityoftechnicalsystems)needtobe
reframed,andapproachesandmethodsneedtobefurtheradvanced,theystillallow
forprimarilydisciplinarytreatment.Incontrast,modernriskstendtobesystemicin
natureandclearlydemandaninterdisciplinaryandtrans-sectionalapproach.
Present-day research and training with its sectorial approach cannot meet the
challengesposedbymultipleandinterlinkedeventsandsystemicrisk.Intheclas-
sicalareasofriskandreliabilityanalysis,suchastransportationsystems,pharma-
ceuticalsandstructures,undesiredtriggeringeventsandeventsequences,theirfre-
quenciesandconsequencesareevaluatedwithinclearsectoriallimitationsinspace
andtime.However,todayschallengesposenewdemandsonriskanalysisandrisk
evaluation:
– technical, economic and social systems become more integrated, e.g. by digital
ICT,andextendtolargescale-networkedsystems;
– risksareinterconnectedandcoupledtovaryingdegrees;
– riskeventsoncetriggered,cascade,crossbordersandarebecomingsystemic;
– consequencesofeventsextendtolong-lasting,trans-boundaryproblemsaswell
aslossofproductsandservicessystems.
v
vi Introduction
New and interlinked risk and security problems in a modern information
society—with its highly computerized trading centres, banks, the Internet and the
large-scope interactions between humans and the environment—add an unknown
complexity to the classical areas of technical risk analysis. Their management re-
quiresspecialsocio-technicalknowledgeandmethodsandshouldalsoincludebe-
haviouralcomponentsasconvincinglydemonstratedthroughoutthe2008financial
crisisortheFukushimaevent.Themiscalculation,misunderstandingormiscommu-
nication of risk by politicians, scientists, and executives poses an additional chal-
lenge.Today’sinterconnectednessofeconomic,socialandpoliticalchangesresults
incomplexandsimultaneousreactionsinvariousareas,andaffectsscientificdevel-
opment and technological assessment. Furthermore, climate risks, environmental
risksandbiotechnicalfoodaswellasmedicalriskshaveincreasedimmenselyover
thelastdecades.Globalwarming,endangeredbalanceinsoil-watersystemsandthe
decayofbiodiversityarelong-termrisksthatarehighlyinterdependentandwillin-
fluenceeachotherandoursocietyinunfamiliarandcomplexwaysinthefuture.The
scopeoftheirinfluenceishardtopredictbytoday’sdisciplinaryriskmanagement
approachesandmethodologies.
One book can hardly address all challenges in risk outlined above. Neverthe-
less,wehopethatthisbookinspiresmulti-disciplinarylearning,stimulatessystemic
thinking,sharpensmulti-methodologicalcompetencies,andbringsriskandsecurity
issues closer to readers with various backgrounds. The goal of this book is to in-
tegrateriskandsecurityissuesintocoredomainsofnaturalsciences,engineering,
lifesciences,management,andmedicine.Itshouldencouragereaderstoworkwith
methods and subjects of various disciplines and on specific cross-sectorial risk is-
sues.Withthisbookwewanttopromoteacommonlanguageandthuscontributeto
riskcommunicationacrossdisciplinesandbetweentheoryandpractice.Itcanserve
asatrainingguidewhendealingwithcomplexriskdecisions,whichtypicallyhave
directandindirecteffectsineconomic,technicalandsocialareas.
Understanding and assessing systemic risk quantitatively is currently the main
challengeofriskresearch,anditisthereforeonegoalofthisbooktofostersystemic
risk understandingin aninterdisciplinaryway.With the foundationof the Munich
Center for Technology in Society (MCTS), the Technische Universität München
(TUM) commits itself to explore how society impacts research and vice-versa,
whichethicalfactorsshouldbetakenintoconsiderationwhendevelopingnewtech-
nologies,andhowscienceandthegeneralpubliccancommunicatewitheachother.
Projects like “sociotechnical systems, robotics and demographic change”, “water
management”,“mistakes,ignorance,contingency,anderrorinscienceandtechnol-
ogy”,or“fromprognosistopredictivemedicine”havealwaysariskcomponent,and
suchprojectshaveinfluencedthewritingofthisbook.LeadingexpertsfromTUM
presentnovelexcitingfields,surveysofrecentdevelopments,orfocusonsomeof
themostchallengingapplicationsinfutureriskresearch.Despitethewiderangeof
topics,eachchapteriswritteninanexpositorystyle,withtwobibliographiesatthe
end. A selected bibliography gives fundamental publications to the topic at hand.
Additionalreferencesaimatthosereaderseagertodivedeeperintothetopic.Inthis
way, each article makes an invaluable comprehensive reference text. The intended
Introduction vii
readersofthisbookareresearchersfromallfields,PhDstudentsandpostdoctoral
researchers,wholookforanintroductiontoriskfromdifferentangles,andwantto
get an overview of old and new applications in different fields and, not least, are
lookingforinspirationfromotherareasofresearch.
AtTUM,thebookwillbeusedattheMCTStoestablishauniqueresearchtrain-
ing programthat willcreate a new generationof researchers,who willunderstand
risk and security in an integrated and interdisciplinary way. Young researchers of
theMCTSwillreceivemulti-methodologicaltrainingthatdrawsfromstate-of-the-
artmethodologiesofalldisciplinesinvolved.Thesemethodologiescontainavariety
ofrisk-relevantconceptsandwillhaveatoolboxofquantitativemethodsattheirdis-
posal.Ourtrainingdevelopscommunicationskillsandenablesgraduatestoworkin
aninterdisciplinaryteaminthecontextofriskandsecurity-relatedissues.
Thebookisorganizedinthreesections.
PartIRiskinHistory,SocietyandScience:fourchaptersprovidethecontextin
which risk is to be seen. The first chapter gives a historical introduction into the
change of the perspective on risk during the centuries. Risk and business ethics is
the topic of Chaps. 2, and 3 explains the often difficult decision making process
from different perspectives. Chapter 4 by the Director of the MCTS, Prof. Klaus
Mainzer,makesthetransitiontothemethodologicalsection.
Part II Quantitative Risk Methodology: six chapters provide insight into quan-
titative methods for risk assessment. The first Chap. 5 introduces into the modern
theoryofriskmeasures,thesecondChap.6reviewsextremevaluetheoryandstatis-
tics as a basis for extreme risk assessment. Statistical prediction by linear models
and Bayesian modelling is presented in Chaps. 7 and 8. Some of the sometimes
disastrousconsequencesofdependenceforriskmodellingcanbeseeninChap.9.
Finally, Chap. 10 deals with model risk, one of the big issues of quantitative risk
assessment.Allchapterscontainafairbitoftheory,butalltheoreticalconceptsare
illustratedwithapplicationsfromvariousfields.
PartIIIRiskTreatmentinVariousApplications:incontrasttoPartII,thefocusof
thesechaptersistheapplication.Methodologyispresented,becauseofitsrelevance
to the application at hand. Such applications range from management problems,
classicalengineeringriskproblemsviainformationsystemstomedicalcancerrisk
research.
Weeditorsandauthorstakepleasureinthankingourhomeinstitutionsforpro-
viding excellent working conditions. As most of us are members of the scientific
TUM community, this is a possibility to pay tribute to its scientific environment.
The TUM Institute for Advanced Study, founded with the support of the German
Excellence Initiative, provided since 2007 an interdisciplinary atmosphere, where
theideaofthisinterdisciplinaryintroductiontoriskwasborn.Theeditorsandsev-
eralauthorsacknowledgefinancialsupportfromtheInstitute,andtheyalsoprofited
immenselyfromthevariousinterdisciplinarymeetingsattheTUM-IAS.
Wealsotakepleasureinthankinganumberofpeople,whosupportedthebook
atvariousstages.WeareparticularlygratefultoProf.WolfgangKröger,Managing
Director of the ETH Risk Centre for various discussions on risk related research
issues.AlsoothermembersoftheETHRiskCentreweremostsupportive.Further-
more,Prof.OrthwinRenn,ChairoftheEnvironmentalSociologyandTechnology
viii Introduction
Assessment,UniversityofStuttgart,deservesourgratitudeforconstantsupport.On
thetechnicalsideDr.ThomasKleinhelpedtosetupthedesignofthechaptersand
startedthecommunicationprocesswiththeauthors.Dr.AnitaBehmetookoveras
ManagingEditorandhandledtherefereeingprocedureefficiently,whichwasama-
jor task with so many authors from different fields and varying background. Her
carefulinspectionofthebookchaptersandherpatientcommunicationwithauthors
and referees havecontributedimmenselyto thequalityof the book. Shealso han-
dled the book production with the Springer staff. The negotiations with Springer
concerningthecontractandthefollowingprintingprocesswentsmoothly,andwe
thankthestaffinvolved.Finally,wewouldliketothankProf.CharlesGoldie,Emer-
itus from Sussex University, who carefully read several book chapters and helped
themtoremainwithincertainboundsofproperEnglish.Ofcourse,theresponsibil-
ityforallfinalcontentsliesbytheauthors.
Munich,Germany ClaudiaKlüppelberg
October30,2013 DanielStraub
IsabellM.Welpe
Contents
PartI RiskinHistory,SocietyandScience
1 Risk in Historical Perspective: Concepts, Contexts, and
Conjunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
KarinZachmann
2 RiskManagementandBusinessEthics:IntegratingtheHuman
Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
ChristophLuetge,EberhardSchnebel,andNadineWestphal
3 Decision-Making Under Risk: A Normative and Behavioral
Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
DanielStraubandIsabellWelpe
4 TheNewRoleofMathematicalRiskModelingandItsImportance
forSociety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
KlausMainzer
PartII QuantitativeRiskMethodology
5 TheMathematicalConceptofMeasuringRisk . . . . . . . . . . . 133
FrancescaBiagini,ThiloMeyer-Brandis,andGregorSvindland
6 QuantifyingExtremeRisks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
VickyFasen,ClaudiaKlüppelberg,andAnnetteMenzel
7 StatisticalModelsforthePredictionofGeneticValues . . . . . . . 183
Chris-CarolinSchönandValentinWimmer
8 BayesianRiskAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
ClaudiaCzadoandEikeChristianBrechmann
9 DealingwithDependentRisks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
ClaudiaKlüppelbergandRobertStelzer
ix
x Contents
10 Model Risk and Uncertainty—Illustrated with Examples
fromMathematicalFinance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
KarlF.BannörandMatthiasScherer
PartIII RiskTreatmentinVariousApplications
11 Cost-BenefitAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
JuttaRoosen
12 EngineeringRiskAssessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
DanielStraub
13 IntegratedModelingofComplexProductionAutomationSystems
toIncreaseDependability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
BirgitVogel-HeuserandSusanneRösch
14 InformationTechnologyRisks:AnInterdisciplinaryChallenge . . 387
MichaelSchermann,ManuelWiesche,StefanHoermann,and
HelmutKrcmar
15 Risk Issues in Developing Novel User Interfaces for Human-
ComputerInteraction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407
GudrunKlinker,ManuelHuber,andMarcusTönnis
16 TranslationalRiskModels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
DonnaPaulerAnkerst,VanadinSeifert-Klauss,andMarionKiechle
17 RiskReductionofCervicalCancerThroughHPVScreeningand
Vaccination—AssumptionsandReality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459
LeonoreThümer,UlrikeProtzer,andVanadinSeifert-Klauss