Table Of ContentRising Titans, Falling Giants
a volume in the series
Cornell Studies in Security Affairs
Edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt
A list of titles in this series is available at cornellpress. cornell . edu.
Rising Titans,
Falling
Giants
How Great Powers Exploit
Power Shifts
Joshua R. Itzkowitz
Shifrinson
Cornell University Press
Ithaca and London
Cornell University Press gratefully acknowledges receipt of
subventions from the Department of International Affairs at the
George Bush School of Government & Public Serv ice and the
Melvin G. Glasscock Center for Humanities Research, both at
Texas A&M University, which aided in the publication of this book.
Copyright © 2018 by Cornell University
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this
book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without
permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address
Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca,
New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu.
First published 2018 by Cornell University Press
Printed in the United States of Amer i ca
Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data
Names: Shifrinson, Joshua R. Itzkowitz, author.
Title: Rising titans, falling giants : how great powers exploit power
shifts / Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson.
Description: Ithaca : Cornell University Press, 2018. | Series: Cornell
studies in security affairs | Includes bibliographical references and
index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2018002247 (print) | LCCN 2018002931 (ebook) |
ISBN 9781501725067 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501725074 (epub/mobi) |
ISBN 9781501725050 (cloth ; alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: United States— Foreign relations— Soviet Union. |
Soviet Union— Foreign relations— United States. | Great powers—
History—20th century. | Balance of power— History—
20th century.
Classification: LCC E183.8.S65 (ebook) | LCC E183.8.S65 S5435 2018
(print) | DDC 327.73047— dc23
LC rec ord available at https:// lccn . loc . gov / 2018002247
Contents
Acknowl edgments vii
Introduction: Rising States and the Fate of Declining
Great Powers 1
1. Predation Theory 13
2. A Formerly Great Britain: Predicting U.S. and Soviet Strategy 42
3. The U.S. and Soviet Response to Britain’s Decline 63
4. Watching the Soviet Union Decline: Assessing Change
and Predicting U.S. Strategy 99
5. U.S. Strategy and the Decline of the Soviet Union 119
Conclusion: Rising Powers, the Fate of Declining States,
and the Future of Great Power Politics 160
Appendix 1. Declining Great Powers, 1860–1913 187
Appendix 2. Interviews Conducted with Former
U.S. Government Officials 191
Notes 195
Index 255
v
Acknowl edgments
To paraphrase Lyle Lanley, a professor with an acknowl edgments section is
a bit like a mule with a spinning wheel: it’s not clear how he got it, and
danged if he knows how to use it. This book was a long time coming. While
I was a gradu ate student at the Mas sa chu setts Institute of Technology (MIT)
casting about for research topics, the 2007–8 financial crisis was reaching its
apogee. In its aftermath, concerns over the course and consequences of U.S.
decline were ubiquitous, yet the discussion was disassociated from any-
thing theoretically or historically informed. The seed of a topic was planted
in my mind.
Barry Posen systematically encouraged my efforts as this proj ect took
shape and evolved. What ever arguments I offer in this work are immeasur-
ably better for his feedback; in this, he enjoyed some payback for the critique
I offered on his papers and book manuscript while serving as his research
assistant. He is a consummate scholar and a role model. Dick Samuels and
Taylor Fravel, who also helped shepherd this proje ct along from the begin-
ning, deserve equal praise. Dick offered incisive suggestions. Taylor was
generous with input and critique at e very stage.
Besides these three scholars, John Mearsheimer, David Edelstein, Jasen
Castillo, Kelly Greenhill, and Marc Trachtenberg had the biggest influence
on the book. Along with Christopher Layne, Valerie Hudson, Andy Ross,
Andrew Natsios, Gabriela Thorton, and Gregory Gause, John, David, and
Kelly provided instrumental feedback that helped transform an early ver-
sion of this work into a completed volume. I owe David and Jasen a part ic-
u lar debt for commenting on multiple drafts of several chapters, often on
short notice. Marc, meanwhile, was generous with his time, insight, and
vii
Acknowle dgments
patience as I tried to sort through the complicated set of historical questions
surrounding great power be hav ior in the post-1945 world.
Of course, no book can be completed without the help, input, encourage-
ment, and support of a wide range of friends and colleagues. I am sure t here
are omissions in this list, but I particularly want to thank Owen Cote, Steve
Van Evera, Brendan Green, Phil Haun, Lindsey O’Rourke, Jennifer Erickson,
Ahsan Butt, Keren Fraiman, Andrew Radin, Dan Altman, Peter Krause, W ill
Norris, Aila Matanock, Jon Lindsay, Miranda Priebe, David Weinberg,
Sameer Lalwani, Cindy Williams, Joshua Rovner, Harvey Sapolsky, Colin
Jackson, Alec Worsnop, Michele Margolis, Erica Dobbs, Rachel Wellhausen,
Noel Anderson, Ben Freidman, Kentaro Maeda, Joseph Torigian, James
Conran, Mark Bell, Toby Harris, Paul Staniland, Nicholas Miller, Chris Clary,
Caitlin Talmadge, Kaija Schilde, Tara Maller, Alex Downes, Jack Levy, Rachel
Stein, Aisha Ahmad, W ill Inboden, Annie Tracey Samuel, Sarah Bush, Chad
Levinson, Walter Ladwig, Stefanie Hlatky, Rob Litwak, Ethan Corbin, Jim
Goldgeier, Keith Darden, Rachel Whitlark, Jessica Trisko-D arden, Austin
Carson, Kyle Lascurettes, Julia Macdonald, Jeff Friedman, Sheena Chestnut-
Greitens, Rose Kelanic, Jennifer Dixon, Christian Ostermann, Kent Portney,
Simon Miles, Evan Braden Montgomery, Tim McDonnell, James Graham
Wilson, Stacie Goddard, James McAllister, Erik Gartzke, Jeremi Suri, Man-
jari Miller, Steve Lobell, Hal Brands, Emily Sellars, Paul MacDonald, Joseph
Parent, Dale Copeland, Larry Napper, Norrin Ripsman, Kevin Narizny,
Kate Geohegan, Katy Powers, Simon Toner, Paul Avey, Jon Markowitz, Rob-
ert Reardon, Ryan Grauer, Patrick Porter, Tim Crawford, David Blagden,
Eugene Gholz, Domonic Bearfield, Justin Bullock, John A. Thompson,
Dan Lindley, Eric Lorber, Richard Maass, Jennifer Keister, Mike Beckley,
Stacie Pettyjohn, and John Schuessler. Brendan, in par tic u lar, heroically
read nearly every word of an earlier version of the manuscript and made
the final product far better; Miranda, Jennifer, and Lindsey deserve med-
als for tolerating far too many of my rambling theoretical musings and his-
torical digressions. In addition, Mary Sarotte and Jeff Engel were incredible
resources on U.S.-S oviet relations in the late Cold War and systematically en-
couraging as I tried to play historian. I am deeply indebted to Michele and the
entire Margolis f amily for putting me up during trips to the Reagan Library.
Key portions of this proje ct were completed at the Woodrow Wilson In-
ternational Center for Scholars, the Belfer Center for Science and Interna-
tional Affairs, George Washington University’s Institute for Security and
Conflict Studies, the Dickey Center for International Understanding at
Dartmouth College, and the Cato Institute. Steve Walt, Steve Miller, and
Sean Lynn- Jones are heroes for sitting through at least three dif fer ent pre-
sen ta tions of my early research at the Belfer Center. Charlie Glaser is a true
mensch for offering feedback and being willing to bounce around ideas
during my year at George Washington. Meanwhile, I could not have asked
for a better environment for revising this work into a viable book than that
viii
Acknowle dgments
provided by the Dickey Center, where Bill Wohlforth, Jennifer Lind, Ben Val-
entino, Dan Benjamin, Daryl Press, and Steve Brooks w ere wonderful friends
and mentors. The final revisions to this volume w ere undertaken while I was
a visiting scholar with the Cato Institute’s Defense and Foreign Policy Stud-
ies Program, and I am im mensely grateful to Chris Preble for his support.
Along the way, I also received useful comments from scholars at the MIRTH
Colloquium at the University of California; Southern Methodist University’s
Tower Center; Lehigh University’s Department of International Relations;
and the University of Chicago’s Program on International Security Policy.
My undergraduate advisers—R obert Art, David Hackett Fischer, Seyom
Brown, and Shai Feldman— encouraged students to ask big questions and
offer big answers. I have tried to follow that motto and am grateful for
their guidance. I also benefitted beyond mea sure from the terrific research
assistance provided by Amber Stubblefield, Hannah Fletcher, Lowell Van
Ness, and— above all— Julie Malinda Thompson. At Cornell University
Press, I thank Steve Walt, Roger Haydon, and Nuno Monteiro for their in-
sightful comments on the final manuscript.
The research in this book was generously supported by grants from the
Tobin Proj ect, the Scowcroft Institute for International Affairs, the Clements
Center at the University of Texas, and the MIT Center for International Stud-
ies. Robert Holzweiss and Zachary Roberts at the George H. W. Bush Presi-
dential Library and Daniel Linke at Princet on University went above and
beyond the call of duty in facilitating access to many of the archival docu-
ments employed in this proj ect. I cannot thank Nicholas Burns, Robert
Hutchings, and Philip Zelikow enough for their openness in discussing their
work in the George H. W. Bush administration; their insights significantly
shaped the research.
Beyond the classroom, my life has been enriched by many good friends,
all of whom made sure that the research for this book did not overwhelm
my life. Sam Eaton and Martin Kaminski made me look forward to each of
our many barbeque trips and the occasional hiking diversion. Andy Jaffe
and I spent college carousing, and I am glad we have kept that spirit alive.
Prem Trivedi and Dan Schleifstein have been among my closest friends for
years and voices of reason every step of the way. Melissa and Dave Wreski
are two of my favorite p eople in the world. Karin Schneider has been a source
of wisdom for many years; I owe her a great deal.
Lastly, my family has always been a source of inspiration. My mother,
Joan Itzkowitz, consistently shows what perseverance means. Zachary
Itzkowitz Shifrinson put up with a cranky older b rother for too many months.
The good humor and calm that he communicated in numerous phone calls
made the research proc ess bearable. Fin ally, I am lucky beyond meas ure to
have Stephen Shifrinson for a f ather. At e very step, he encouraged me. At
every moment of doubt, he supported me. He has been my biggest fan, and
I hope he knows I am his. It is to him that I dedicate this book.
ix
