Table Of ContentRISING CHINA IN A
CHANGING WORLD
Power Transitions and Global Leadership
Jin Kai
Rising China in a Changing World
Jin Kai
Rising China in a
Changing World
Power Transitions and Global Leadership
Jin Kai
Yonsei University
Soul-t´ukpyolsi, Korea (Republic of)
ISBN 978-981-10-0826-9 ISBN 978-981-10-0827-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-0827-6
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P A
REFACE AND CKNOWLEDGEMENT
As a young scholar who served in the People’s Liberation Army for ten
years, and who has been studying and researching China’s politics and its
diplomacy for a long time, I have good reasons to cheer for, but also have
concerns about, the rise of China and its far-reaching implications, par-
ticularly with regard to a prospective power transition between the United
States and China.
I understand that while China is a major power undergoing a his-
toric rise, it is still more or less a developing country in the East Asian
region, rather than a truly global superpower. Although I have mostly
stayed in South Korea for the past twelve years, I frequently visit China
during holidays. I have seen how fast China has developed, how diverse
Chinese society has become, and how dynamic its economy has become.
The cities I had lived in simply have changed so much that even after a
few years’ absence I could hardly recognize the neighborhoods I used to
stay in. I was even more surprised to see rush hours with serious traffi c
jams every single day in the small town where I was born, even though
the city has invested a great deal into the construction of infrastructures
to accommodate growth, or more specifi cally the “explosion” of private
cars. However, this is just one side of China’s glorious story. There are
obvious issues with its fast-growing national economy, there are serious
problems with its regional and social disparities, and there is still much to
be improved with its public services. But at the end of the day, the true rise
of China will have to be the rise of the Chinese. An American friend once
told me about his understanding of the rise of China, when were talk-
ing about how China had signifi cantly overtaken Japan and become the
v
vi PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
world’s second-largest economy at the end of 2010. He argued that the
most striking thing about China’s emerging as a real great power would
not be how economically powerful it would be or how strong a military
force it would have, but how much potential China’s large population
had for further development. I agreed and believed that was an absolutely
appropriate and pertinent argument, since it clearly pointed out the inter-
nal driving force for China’s continuous rise. It is in this regard that rise
of China, therefore, starts from within its own land and people, and there
is still a long way to go.
Regionally or globally, China’s rise has been an even more complicated
issue. For example, regional states may have very different or very mixed
attitudes and perceptions of China’s rise and its policies in the given region.
South Korea, for instance, has become increasingly dependent on China’s
fast-growing economy and its vast domestic market, whereas the Seoul-
Washington alliance has remained fi rm or even been strengthened as an
alliance based on common values and mutual trust with bilateral, regional,
and global scope. Naturally the rise of China in the region has created a
geopolitical dilemma for South Korea. On one hand, South Korea may
truly welcome a rising China, but on the other hand, it may fi nd China’s
rising power a threat to its traditional ties with the United States.
Other concerns regarding China’s rise come from its recent assertive
policies regarding its maritime disputes with its neighbors in the East and
South China Seas (although China’s assertiveness has mainly been reac-
tive). Nevertheless, the fundamentally important question remains: How
the rise of China can be peaceful?
This monograph, which I started in 2008, is based on but not limited
to my Ph.D. dissertation, which specifi cally talks about the rise of China
mainly from a perspective of Power Transition theory. In 2010, I made
a signifi cant change to focus of my Ph.D. dissertation from economic
interdependence (between the United States and China) to institutional
engagement; and I believe that the international discussion on China’s
regional policy regarding two incidents in the Korean Peninsula in 2010
partially contributed to this signifi cant shift. I now believe the decision
I made in 2010 was a good one. Economic interdependence has been
important, but it surely does not explain the evolving power interactions
between the United States and China in the bigger picture.
Meanwhile, once I started to write for T he Diplomat as a columnist in
late 2013, I began to refi ne some of my arguments made in my previous
Ph.D. research and update some of the key chapters with new ideas and
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT vii
new materials. I found this process to be a very effi cient and effective way
to recast my ideas, since I could clearly and constantly organize my view-
points and put them together in relatively short pieces and collect con-
structive feedback from readers, including my seniors, colleagues, friends,
and even my students, who sometimes gave me very interesting feedback
and comments. There are of course not-quite-constructive or even very
unfriendly comments from the readers. But I understand that people may
have very different opinions, particularly when it comes to the rapid rise
of China in the still U.S.-led world system.
Nevertheless, as I continued my research on the subject of China’s rise
and its implications for a perceived future power transition between the
United States and China, I gradually realized that there are actually several
very important issues that I had not particularly emphasized in my previ-
ous research, such as the institutional “nature” of the rise of China, the
historical “nature” of Chinese politics and its political values, and the struc-
tural “nature” of U.S.-China confl icts or discords. Hence, I became more
convinced that cognitive divergence, for example, between China and the
West, may have played a much more important role in the world’s com-
plex views on the rise of China than people may have expected. Following
this logic, I described U.S.-China confl icts as more than a power game
between great powers driven by national interests, and actually the result
of “pride and prejudice” on both sides.
The related discussion may be a bit more intangible and personal. I par-
ticularly compared the “Chinese Dream” and the “American Dream” in
the conclusion, in hopes that it would encourage readers to abandon some
traditional but useful patterns of analyzing interactions among great pow-
ers temporarily, and visualize two different dreams pursued by the people
of two different great powers. Why are their dreams different? How differ-
ent are they? And maybe more interestingly, do they share some common
ground?
At the same time, the debate and discussion on the rise of China and it
implications for U.S. leadership also needs to be very serious and rigorous.
Therefore, theoretical review is also an element of this research. I am not a
Game Theorist, but I do believe that certain methods employed in Game
Theory may provide us with a theoretically ideal environment, one which
is simple and pure, to test possible strategic choices the United State and
China may have. This is a somewhat less detailed part of my book, and I
hope it will not appear too cursory, but rather serve as a means to stimu-
late further discussion.
viii PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This is my fi rst book, and it has come a long way. The very fi rst dif-
fi culty or issue with this project was how to take my stand. How would
people expect a Chinese young scholar who had served in PLA for a long
time to talk about the rise of China? This is also an issue for me in my
teaching and research that is at once neither too big nor too small. In
fact, there were times when I strongly felt that the rise of China would
never be peaceful, simply because all norms, rules, regulations, common
values, and institutions, however respected among a majority of states,
are actually subject to a single determinant—“power.” As China rises up,
why would it choose to break this “law of the jungle?” It came to me that
describing China’s rise as violent was actually helping me to “defend”
China’s policies, whether rational or irrational. Later I found that the key
somehow inhered in “power” itself, meaning that power has been dif-
fused across state borders. To put it simply, I should not view the rise of
China merely from a Chinese perspective, as a Chinese would naturally do,
but more often from a regional perspective, because, as the proverb says,
“bystanders see more than gamesters.” And this is actually a dynamic pat-
tern, which means that I have to place myself and my perspective “inside”
and “outside” China constantly. Obviously, I have to step inside China
when I try to understand issues like “what is China” and “what makes
China ‘China,’” whereas I have to step outside China to have a clearer
vision of “where is China heading to and where should it go.”
My second concern is with the idea of sharing some of my thoughts on
future scenarios. It seems to be popular or even fashionable for people to
talk about the rise of China and its relations with the dominant United
States. Strictly speaking, I do not expect that my research will give some
precise analysis on the future of China’s rise and the possible power, or
even leadership, transition with the United States, although some fi nd-
ings in my research may suggest certain prospects. In the fi nal part of this
book, although I shared some of my visions for the future of China’s rise
in the U.S.-led world system, I concluded, however, that some of the main
reasons or causes driving whatever will happen in the future, be it peaceful
co-existence or violent confl ict, remain unknowable at this point in time.
I hope this may draw attention to the root causes of any future peace or
war rather.
In sum, China’s rise has been one of the most signifi cant and important
issues in contemporary world politics. Its rise often arouses anxious reac-
tions from its neighbors, and especially the still-dominant superpower—
the United States—which anticipates a probable power transition with
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ix
China. But when we discuss a possible power shift, we must bear in mind
that China has come a long and somewhat different way—China is cul-
turally and structurally different from the dominant Western powers and
other former emerging great powers. Is the world ready to accept a power-
ful China as a regional and later global great power? Can the United States
fi nd a way to peacefully coexist with a powerful China? Will it choose to
do so? Why has China’s rise been so complex and why should the United
States allow and even encourage China’s involvement in international
institutions? These are some of the questions addressed in this book, and
there can be a myriad of different opinions and answers.
I am sincerely grateful to my parents, who have supported me without
reserve through all these years when I mostly have lived apart from them.
This has not been easy for them, as Chinese parents that expected much
from their son. When Chinese newspapers and magazines translated some
of the pieces I had published overseas, my father carefully collected them,
read them thoroughly, and talked with me when I went back and stayed
at home briefl y. Deep in my heart, I know I could never have fi nished this
book without the silent but powerful understanding and support I got
from my parents. My gratitude also goes to my mentor, Consul General
and also Professor at Yonsei, Dr. Sukhee Han. I have had constant dis-
cussions over the rise of China and its regional and global implications
with Dr. Han since I started the research on this subject, and I have truly
benefi ted from his sometimes different and even critical perspectives. His
consistent support and encouragement were also important when miscel-
laneous issues sometimes disturbed me.
In this book I presented many interpretations of fi ndings and argu-
ments made by other scholars, and I am sincerely grateful to them for their
works, without which my research could have never been carried out. At
the same time I take full responsibility of the contents of this book.
Seoul, South Korea Jin Kai
C
ONTENTS
1 Introduction 1
2 Theoretical Review Through Power Transition Theory 2 1
3 How the Rise of China Will Be Different:
Historical Analysis of Previous Power Transitions 57
4 Engaging China in International Institutions: Case Studies 7 9
5 Analytical Review of China’s Rise in the Contemporary
World System 115
6 Further Discussion, Summary of Main Arguments,
and Future Scenarios 157
Index 181
xi
