Table Of Content::Return to Armageddon ::
Return to Armageddon
The United States
and the Nuclear Arms Race,1981-1999
ronald e. powaski
1
2000
3
Oxford New York
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Copyright © 2000by Ronald E.Powaski
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Powaski,Ronald E.
Return to Armageddon:the United States and the nuclear arms race,1981-
1999/
Ronald E.Powaski.
p.cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-19-510382-3
1.United States—Military policy. 2.Arms race—History—20th century.
3.Nuclear Weapons. I.Title.
UA23.P624 1999
327.1'747—dc21 99-19999
Book design by Adam B.Bohannon
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
To
Daniel Weidenthal, M.D.
and William Reinhart, M.D.
Contents
Preface ix
Introduction:The Nuclear Arms Race,1939-1981 3
1 The Reagan Nuclear Buildup 14
2The Reagan About-Face 39
3 Bush and start i 83
4Bush and start ii 128
5 Clinton,start ii,and the abmTreaty 165
6Clinton and Counterproliferation 205
Conclusion:The Enduring Nuclear Threat 251
Acronyms and Technical Terms 259
Notes 263
Suggested Readings 283
Index 287
Preface
When i began writing this book in 1995,i was opti-
mistic that the nuclear arms race was winding down.
The Cold War was over.Eight years had passed since
the administration of President Ronald Reagan had
concluded the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces
(inf) Treaty, which eliminated, for the first time, a
whole class of nuclear weapons.By 1993,Reagan’s suc-
cessor,George Bush,had completed the negotiation of
two Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (startiand
startii),which together would bring about massive
reductions in the strategic nuclear arsenals of the two
former adversaries.In start ii,the two sides would
lower their total nuclear warheads to between 3,800
and 4,250warheads by the year 2000,and to between
3,000and 3,500warheads by the year 2003.The accord
would reduce the number of strategic weapons held by
both sides to a quarter of the amount they had
deployed in 1990,and to the lowest levels since 1969.
In 1995, a new administration had been in office for two years, that of
William Jefferson Clinton,which was openly committed not only to revers-
ing the “vertical”proliferation of U.S.and Russian nuclear weapons through
the start process, but also to halting the “horizontal” spread of nuclear
ix
x:: Preface
weapons to the nonweapon states of the world.During that year,the Clinton
administration was instrumental in gaining the indefinite extension of the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (npt).This agreement requires nonweapon
state parties to refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons.During the following
year, the Clinton administration also played a major role in negotiating a
comprehensive test ban treaty (ctbt).This agreement requires its parties to
refrain from conducting nuclear weapons tests, which, many believe, is a
major deterrent to the development of nuclear weapons.
Unfortunately, as the new millennium approaches, I have become less
optimistic that humanity can avert some form of nuclear catastrophe, and
thus the title of this book:Return to Armageddon.Continued U.S.-Russian
cooperation on nuclear matters can no longer be assured for a variety of rea-
sons,not the least of which is nato’s decision to expand its membership by
including three states—Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic—that
were all once members of the Soviet-dominated Warsaw Pact.nato’s expan-
sion is partly responsible for the failure of the Russian parliament to ratify
the startiiTreaty.The inability of the Clinton administration to maintain a
common policy with Russia toward Iraq is another reason for thinking that
U.S.-Russian nuclear cooperation can no longer be taken for granted.
To make matters worse, the ctbt is stuck in the U.S. Senate’s Foreign
Relations Committee because its chairman,Senator Jesse Helms,and other
Republicans believe the treaty cripples the ability of the United States to
maintain an effective nuclear deterrent and hinders the U.S.effort to build
an antiballistic missile (abm) defense system.
Perhaps even more ominously,efforts to halt the horizontal proliferation
of nuclear weapons may have been dealt a major blow by nuclear weapon
tests conducted by India and Pakistan in May 1998.Not only did their action
weaken the effort to gain “universal”participation in the nptand the ctbt,
but it also threatens to encourage other states—like Iran, to mention only
one—to develop nuclear weapons.And,again,there is the ongoing problem
of preventing Iraq from developing—and using—weapons of mass destruc-
tion,including nuclear weapons.
If this were not enough to frighten the most stouthearted,there is also the
possibility that nuclear weapons or materials will be smuggled out of Russia
and find their way into the hands of terrorists willing to threaten an Ameri-
can city with destruction unless their demands are met.
What this study attempts to do is present the history of the U.S.effort to
diminish the nuclear threat facing the world during the Reagan,Bush,and
Description:Return to Armageddon: the United States and the nuclear arms race, 1981-. 1999/. Ronald E. Before entering the political arena in the early 1960s
