Response of Flood Events to Land Use and Climate Change: Analyzed by Hydrological and Statistical Modeling in Barcelonnette, France

261 Pages·2013·12.81 MB·English

by  Azadeh Ramesh (auth.)

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Azadeh Ramesh
Response of Flood
Events to Land Use
and Climate Change
Analyzed by Hydrological
and Statistical Modeling
in Barcelonnette, France
Doctoral Thesis accepted by
the University of Vienna, Austria
123
Author Supervisor
Dr. Azadeh Ramesh Prof.Dr. ThomasGlade
Instituteof Geomorphological Systems Instituteof Geomorphological Systems
and RiskResearch and RiskResearch
Department of Geography andRegional Department of Geography andRegional
Research Research
Universityof Vienna Universityof Vienna
Vienna Vienna
Austria Austria
ISSN 2190-5053 ISSN 2190-5061 (electronic)
ISBN 978-94-007-5526-0 ISBN 978-94-007-5527-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-5527-7
SpringerDordrechtHeidelbergNewYorkLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2012952039
(cid:2)SpringerScience+BusinessMediaDordrecht2013
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I dedicate this work to ‘‘Alireza’’
Parts ofthisresearch havebeenpublished orprepared forpublicationatthe
following conferences and in the following journals:
• Ramesh,A.,Glade,T.,Malet,J.-P.,Trendanalysisinhydro-climateparameters
of a mountainous catchment in south east of France using Mann-Kendal test,
International Journal of Climatology (in prep.).
• Ramesh, A., Alkema, D., Glade, T., Flood hazard assessment using SOBEK
(1D-2D) model, Case study: Reconstruction of 1957 and 2008 floods in
Barcelonnette, France, International Journal of Hydrology and Earth System
Sciences (in prep.).
• Ramesh,A.,Glade,T.,Theresponseoffloodeventtolanduseandclimatechange
inBarcelonnette,France,InternationalJournalofNaturalHazards(inprep.).
• Ramesh, A., Glade, T., Alkema, D., Krol, B., Malet, J.-P., Model Performance
Analysis for Flood Hazard Assessment in Ubaye River, Barcelonnette, France,
International Conference;Mountain Risk—BringingScience to Society, CERG
Publication, Strasbourg, France, November 2010.
• Ramesh,A.,Glade,T.,Responseoffloodeventtolanduseandclimatechange,
International Summer School on Water Resources and the Water Cycle in a
Changing World, Oxford, UK, 04–08 July 2011.
• Ramesh,A.,Glade,T.,Trendanalysisinclimaticparameterstoinvestigateflow
regime of Ubaye River in Barcelonnette, European Conference on Applied
Climatology, EMS Annual Meeting, Berlin, Germany, 12–16 September 2011.
• Ramesh,A.,Glade,T.,Parodi,G.,Alkema,D.,DykefailurescenariosinUbaye
River,Franceusinghydraulicmodeling,EuropeanGeosciencesUnion,Vienna,
Austria, 03–08 April 2011.
• Ramesh, A., Glade, T., Alkema, D., Krol, B., Malet, J.-P., Model performance
analysis for flood hazard assessment in Ubaye River, Barcelonnette, France,
InternationalConference;MountainRisks:BringingSciencetoSociety,Firenze,
Italy, 24–26 November 2010.
• Ramesh, A., Glade, T., Malet, J.-P., Evaluation of climate change on flood
event by using parametric T-test and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test in
Barcelonnette basin, France, European Conference on Applied Climatology,
EMS Annual Meeting, Zurich, Switzerland, 13–17 September 2010.
• Ramesh,A.,Glade,T.,Kappes,M.,Malet,J.-P.,Delineationoffloodinundated
areas using aerial photo interpretation and GIS-based hydrological modeling—
an application in Barcelonnette, France, European Geosciences Union, Vienna,
Austria, 02–07 May 2010.
Supervisor’s Foreword
Floodsareoneofthemostimportanthydrogeomorphicprocessesoperatingonthe
earth’sphysicallandscapethatgreatlyinfluencessocietyinmanifoldways.These
events have been a major concern for people living near rivers since pre-historic
times. Floods cause not only one of the most widespread natural disasters often
associated with large numbers of casualties, rising economic losses, extensive
homelessness,anddisasterinduceddiseases,theyarealsooneofthemostfrequent
disastertype.TheCommissiontotheCouncil(theEuropeanParliament)reported
in 2004, that besides natural causes, river floods may also occur whenever the
capacityofman-made drainage system (such asdykes)is unabletocope with the
volume of water generated by rainfall, or when flood defences fail. Such failures
areoneofthemostcommoncausesforriverfloodinginEurope.Apartfromnon-
climaticfactorsthataffectflooding,thereareadversefloodhazardchangesdueto
climate change. Many investigators believe that climate change is expected to
have substantial impacts on hydrology on a global, regional, and local scale.
Unfortunately, a flood is in many locations not a purely natural phenomenon
anymore. Some human activities, such as increasing human settlements in flood-
plains,increasingwaterstoragethroughdams,orreducingnaturalwaterretention
by land use and climate change, contribute to the increased likelihood of flood
events. Therefore, studies on floods are in the research focus for many decades.
Numerous disciplines are involved and respective topics include past information
on floods using geoarchives or historical sources, field mapping and monitoring,
1D,2D,and3Dmodelingapproachesaswellasanysocioeconomicconsequences
and disaster management in their broadest sense. In recent years, the effects of
global change including, for example, land use and climate change receive
increased attention. As described inthe previous paragraph, it is obvious, that the
fluvialsystemisnotonlydrivenbynaturalforces,itisalsohugelydeterminedby
societal interactions. Numerous scientific questions associated to this topics are
still unsolved, leaving space for further research. Consequently, Azadeh Ramesh
dedicates her research to this increasingly important field of research. The given
different data sets are analysed with respect to climate change focusing on both
temperatureandprecipitationvariations.Thelandusechangeanalysisisbasedon
ix
x Supervisor’sForeword
aerial photograph imagery to determine spatiotemporal land use patterns. The
book’s main focus is on flood hazard assessment which is based on hydrological,
spatial, and statistical modeling. The study intends to develop an advanced
understandingofhowclimatechangeandlandusechangeprocesseshaveoperated
fromthepastuntilthepresent,andhowthesehaveaffectedtheflowregimeofthe
Ubaye River in the Barcelonnette area, located in the Alpes de Haute Provence,
SoutheastofFrance.Thispresentedresearchisanoriginalandnovelcontribution,
asitaddressesthediversetopicsoffloodhazardandclimateandlandusechange.
The coherent structure and logical scientific arguments clearly expressed
throughout thebookare enhanced bythesoundandthoroughliterature review on
these topics. The research objectives are distinctively addressed and followed
throughout the text, and are supported by a thorough review of the available
literature on this topic. The conceptual and methodological approaches are
described in great detail and thus, the study is clearly reproducible. This research
hasbeen carried outinaspecific catchment.However,theresultsare transferable
and might be of highest interest also for other flood-related studies investigating
climate and land use change pattern and their effect on the natural and human
environment. Therefore I am confident, that this book is a rich source for other
related studies.
Vienna, Austria, July 2012 Prof. Dr. Thomas Glade
Preface
Thisbookaimstoserveasaneffectivesourceofinformation,aswellasavaluable
basis for setting priorities and making further technical, financial, and political
decisions regarding flood hazard assessment. In general, the main aim of this
researchwastodevelopandapplymethodstoidentifyandevaluatetheresponseof
flood events to land use and climate change. Flood hazard assessment was ana-
lyzedbycomputingasetofcrisisscenarios(e.g.dykefailure),whichareimportant
informationforcivilprotectionpurposes.Subsetsofthesescenarioswereanalyzed
with distinct return periods asinputsintothehydraulic(1D)andhydrologic(1D–
2D) models. Moreover, two severe flood events’ characteristics (1957 and 2008)
occurred in the study area were compared, and then flood propagation using
hydrodynamic models (one dimensional (1D) HEC-RAS model and one-two
dimensional(1D–2D)SOBEKmodel)wereestimated,withrespecttoavarietyof
cross sections, river morphology, and different hydrographs. Additionally, this
research gives a comparative overview of the major challenges faced with, like
climate change and land use change, when dealing with flood hazards. Hydrody-
namic simulation, together with trend detection climate change focusing on the
analysis of climatological and hydrological parameters in a time series coupled
with land use change estimation, led to the conception of a modern structure for
flood hazard assessment. This research aimed to establish such a system, using a
case study catchment to test and demonstrate its ability to perform under the
typical conditions of mountainous catchments in France. The results of this
research represent important fundamental information for policymaking, decision
support, and flood hazard planning in any region, but are indeed particularly
relevant for the Barcelonnette area. The results of this research have been pre-
sented at several international conferences, seminars, and workshops. Addition-
ally, some articles are also already prepared (as listed in this book) and ready to
submitininternationaljournals.Thisresearchhasbeenoneofthemostsignificant
academicchallengesIhaveeverfaced.TheUniversityofVienna,especiallyProf.
Thomas Glade, provided an intriguing foundation for me to work on physical
aspects of the earth, focusing on hydrodynamic simulation (1D–2D modeling),
xi