Table Of ContentECONOMICRESEARCHCENTRE
EClili
RESEARCH RELEVANT
TO TRENDS IN TRANSPORT
OVER THE COMING DECADE
EUROPEANCONFERENCEOFMINISTERSOFTRANSPORT
PARIS1987
ECONOMICRESEARCHCENTRE
REPORTOFTHE
SEVENTY-FIFTH ROUNDTABLE
ON TRANSPORT ECONOMICS
HeldinParison28th-29thJanuary 1987
onthefollowingtopic:
RESEARCH RELEVANT
TO TRENDS IN TRANSPORT
OVER THE COMING DECADE
EUROPEANCONFERENCEOFMINISTERSOFTRANSPORT
THE EUROPEAN CONFERENCE
OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT [ECMT]
The European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT), an inter-governmental organisation
establishedbya Protocolsigned in Brusselson 17thOctober 1953,constitutesaforum forthe Ministersof
Transportof 19 Europeancountries'. TheworkoftheCouncil of Ministers isprepared byaCommitteeof
Deputies.
ThepurposesoftheConference are:
a) to take whatever measures may be necessary to achieve, at general or regional level, the most
efficient use and rational development of European inland transport of international impor¬
tance;
b) toco-ordinateand promotetheactivitiesofinternationalorganisationsconcerned with European
inland transport,,taking intoaccount thework ofsupranational authorities in thisfield.
MajorproblemswhicharebeingstudiedbytheECMTinclude:transportpolicy;thefinancialsituation
and organisation of railways and road transport; problems concerning inland waterway transport and
combined transport; development of European trunk lines ofcommunication; problemsconcerning urban
transport;thepreventionofroadaccidentsandco-ordination,atEuropeanlevel,ofroadtrafficrulesandroad
signsand signals; traffictrends and long-term traffic forecasts.
Moreover,the ECMTorganises RoundTablesandSymposia.Theirconclusionsareconsidered bythe
competentorgansoftheConference,undertheauthorityoftheCommitteeofDeputies,sothatthelattermay
formulate proposals for policydecisions to besubmitted tothe Ministers.
The ECMT isequipped with a computerised Documentation Centre.
TheSecretariatisattachedfromanadministrativepointofviewtotheSecretariatoftheOrganisationfor
EconomicCo-operation and Development (OECD) which distributes its publications.
I. Austria, Belgium.Denmark. Finland. France,Germany,Greece. Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,theNetherlands.Norway. Portugal.
Spain.Sweden.Switzerland.Turkey,theUnitedKingdomandYugoslavia(associatedcountries:Australia.Canada,Japan,UnitedSlates).
Publiccnfrancaissousletitre:
RECHERCHESCONVENANTAUXTENDANCESDESTRANSPORTS
POURLADECENNIEAVENIR
© ECMT, 1987
ECMT publications are distributed by theOECD Publications Service,
2, rue Andre-Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD
(Jan C. Terlouw, Secretary-General of the Conference) (cid:9) 5
"RESEARCH RELEVANT TO TRENDS IN TRANSPORT OVER THE
COMING DECADE"
(A. De Waele and M. Violland) (cid:9) 7
INTRODUCTION (cid:9) 8
CHAPTER 1: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT (cid:9) 9
1.1. Deregulation (cid:9) 9
1.2. The decision-making process (cid:9) (cid:9) 14
1.3. Other problems (cid:9) 15
SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION ON CHAPTER 1 (cid:9) 16
CHAPTER 2: FINANCING IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR (cid:9) 20
2.1. Investment (cid:9) 20
2.2. Operation (cid:9) 22
2.3. Other aspects (cid:9) 24
SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION ON CHAPTER 2 (cid:9) 24
CHAPTER 3 : DEMAND (cid:9) 27
3.1. Human factors (cid:9) 27
3.2. Physical factors (cid:9) 28
3.3. Specific problems (cid:9) 30
SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION ON CHAPTER 3 (cid:9) 31
CHAPTER 4: SUPPLY OF SERVICES (cid:9) 34
4.1. Freight services (cid:9) 34
4.2. Regional passenger transport (cid:9) 36
4.3. Urban and suburban public transport (cid:9) 36
4.4. Other problems (cid:9) 38
SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION ON CHAPTER 4 (cid:9) 40
CHAPTER 5: METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (cid:9) 42
SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION ON CHAPTER 5 (cid:9) 43
ANNEX: TRENDS IN RESEARCH OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS (cid:9) 45
1. Introductory comments (cid:9) 45
2. Interpretation of the data (cid:9) 46
3. World Conference on Transport Research (Vancouver,
Canada: llth-15th May 1986) (cid:9) 47
TABLES (cid:9) 48-50
LIST OF PARTICIPANTS (cid:9) 51
ECMT: ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE
Forthcoming publications (cid:9) 57
FOREWORD
When organising round tables the Economic Research and
Documentation Division of the ECMT seeks to bring together
scientists, civil servants and users of the transport systems,
in order to discuss in a scientific manner international
transport developments which are already taking place or
foreseen. The ultimate aim of the discussions is to provide
the Conference's political bodies with the basic data and the
necessary factual information essential to the formulation of
policy decisions.
Rather than examining in depth one particular problem,
the aim of Round Table 75 was to try to obtain an overview, a
panorama, of the entire field of ground transport in Europe.
The date of the round table happened to coincide with the
formulation of a new, three-year programme of the Conference
and the topics for a new series of round tables had also to be
decided. Round Table 75 participants were not, however, asked
to single out the most interesting subjects for future work.
They were invited to describe what, in their view, were the
most urgent problems for the next decade, thus using a
Delphi-type method to obtain some insight of the near future.
The discussions were based on a paper prepared by the
Secretariat, drawn up from a large number of interviews with
European experts in transport economics. Altogether it may be
said that this report from Round Table 75 provides the most
recent overview, from a scientific angle, of the way people and
goods in Europe can be or should be transported. I should like
to express my gratitude to all those who participated in this
and in the previous seventy-four round tables, thus enabling
the Secretariat to provide the decision-making Council of
Ministers of Transport with solid background material.
Jan C. Terlouw
Secretary-General
RESEARCH RELEVANT TO TRENDS IN TRANSPORT
OVER THE COMING DECADE
A. De WAELE
Head of the Economic Research & Documentation Division
and
M. VIOLLAND
Administrator. Economic Research
& Documentation Division
INTRODUCTION
For nearly twenty years the ECMT has been organising
Round Tables within the framework of its research activities,
the aim being to enable a restricted number of specialists to
make a thorough analysis of a particular aspect of transport
economics and so provide data which may be of use for the
formulation of policy in the transport sector.
The ECMT is a policymaking organisation and accordingly
has an interest in the findings of applied economic research
which point the way to an efficient allocation of resources to
the transport sector. Such research must therefore be
undertaken early enough for it to be used for guidance, a
fundamental requirement which implies that if the research is
to be of use it must ascertain in advance the matters that will
be of concern to policymakers.
Round Table 75 differs from the customary ones in that
it was not confined to the analysis of a particular topic,
since it was found advisable to hold a general discussion every
now and again to ascertain what contribution can in fact be
made by Round Tables.
The aim of Round Table 75 -- as was also the case
earlier with Round Table 50 -- was to consider what future
lines of research might provide bases for shaping tomorrow's
policies, and thus provide the reference material for a future
programme of research.
It is clearly both ambitious and difficult to try to
outline studies to be undertaken in the coming years, studies
that would have to foresee the problems that may arise over
that period. The endeavour is nevertheless essential and past
experience has shown that the Round Tables can successfully
fulfil this role of indicating incipient policy problems.
Having ascertained the objective, there were seen to be
several ways of achieving it, one being to compile an
encyclopaedic volume of information. While not without value
from a scientific standpoint, such a method has serious
drawbacks in practical terms. The large volume of data
collected would not throw sufficient light on the major issues,
nor provide for a conclusive debate, but would instead give
rise to commentary without leading to the desired convergence
of views.
A second method was to send a questionnaire to the main
research centres. Although immediately more selective, such an
approach would not have permitted an exhaustive debate since it
would have focussed on research actually underway rather than
on research that should be initiated. Indeed, this type of
information is collected periodically from those concerned and
published in a special bulletin by ECMT. Moreover, only some
of the information has the forward-looking and anticipatory
character being sought after in particular.
A third method was to hold quite lengthy interviews with
specialists who discuss issues and answer questions which go
more deeply into particular aspects. Notwithstanding the risk
of subjectivity and less exhaustive coverage, this method was
adopted because it seemed most appropriate for a critical
analysis of the major problems and also enabled us to ask a
number of specialists for their opinions on an issue raised by
one of them, a process of restating the question which is
invaluable when a number of views have to be obtained on a
controversial matter.
This report summarises the essential findings of some
fifty interviews. Rather than drawing up a long list of
possible research topics, the subject matter was organised
around a number of axes, so that the participants were able to
lay stress on particular areas. A summary of the relevant
Round Table discussions can be found at the end of each chapter
of the report. The annex to the report outlines the transport
economics research currently in hand and shows the extent to
which such research is in fact relevant to the major problems
to be expected.
CHAPTER 1: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT
1.1. Deregulation
This topic is dealt with by almost all the specialists
and the views expressed in this connection differ widely. The
most fervent advocates of deregulation consider it now
essential to put an end to an excessively costly system that is
developing very little. Those who are not in favour of
deregulation acknowledge that it offers some degree of
flexibility but warn against the risk of an unduly radical
policy.
A distinction must first be made between freight and
passenger transport, bearing in mind that caution is often
recommended as regards the latter sector, particularly where it
is advisable to preserve a reasonable degree of mobility and
accessibility.
