Table Of ContentReliability Data on Fire
Sprinkler Systems
Reliability Data on Fire
Sprinkler Systems
Collection, Analysis, Presentation,
and Validation
Authored by
Arnstein Fedøy and Ajit Kumar Verma
CRC Press
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Library of Congress Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data
Names: Fedoy, Arnstein, author. | Verma, A. K. (Ajit Kumar) author.
Title: Reliability data on fire sprinkler systems : collection, analysis,
presentation, and validation / by Arnstein Fedoy and Ajit Kumar Verma.
Description: Boca Raton, FL : CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group, 2019. |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019020288 | ISBN 9780367251857 (hardback : acid-free paper) |
ISBN 9780429287503 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Fire sprinklers—Reliability. | Fire sprinklers—Testing—Statistical
methods.
Classification: LCC TH9336 .F43 2019 | DDC 628.9/252—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019020288
Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at
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Contents
Foreword .................................................................................................................ix
Preface ......................................................................................................................xi
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................xiii
Authors’ Biographies ............................................................................................xv
1 Introduction .....................................................................................................1
1.1 Background ............................................................................................1
1.2 Description of the Book and Methodology .......................................2
1.3 Limitations .............................................................................................3
1.4 Fire and Sprinkler Extinguishing Theory .........................................4
1.4.1 Fire .............................................................................................4
1.4.2 Combustion...............................................................................4
1.4.3 Room Fire ..................................................................................4
1.4.4 Sprinkler: Control and Extinguishing ..................................5
1.4.5 Sprinkler: Postpone Flashover ...............................................7
1.5 Reliability Theory .................................................................................9
1.5.1 Probability Distribution Over the Lifetime .........................9
1.5.2 Statistical Life Expectancy ......................................................9
1.5.3 Expected Number of Failures Per Unit of Time ..................9
1.5.4 The Likelihood That Something Will Work at a
Specific Time ...........................................................................10
1.5.5 Sprinkler Reliability ..............................................................10
2 Today’s Data: A Study of the Literature ...................................................11
2.1 Relevant Studies ..................................................................................11
2.2 Australia and New Zealand’s Experiences With Sprinklers ........17
2.2.1 Reliability ................................................................................18
2.2.2 Unreliability ............................................................................23
2.2.3 Summary .................................................................................26
2.3 Early Studies in the United States ....................................................27
2.3.1 Reliability ................................................................................27
2.3.2 Unreliability ............................................................................29
2.3.3 Summary .................................................................................32
2.4 US Experience With Sprinklers: 2010 ...............................................33
2.4.1 Reliability ................................................................................36
2.4.2 Unreliability ............................................................................40
2.4.3 Summary .................................................................................42
2.5 US Experience With Sprinklers: 2017 ...............................................44
2.5.1 Reliability ................................................................................45
2.5.2 Unreliability ............................................................................49
2.5.3 Summary .................................................................................51
v
vi Contents
2.6 UK Experience With Sprinklers: 2017 ..............................................51
2.6.1 Reliability ................................................................................52
2.6.2 Unreliability ............................................................................55
2.6.3 Summary .................................................................................56
2.7 Studies in Norway ..............................................................................56
2.7.1 Norwegian Experience With Sprinklers ............................56
2.7.2 Reliability ................................................................................57
2.7.3 Unreliability ............................................................................58
2.7.4 Summary .................................................................................58
2.8 What Is Known After the Review? ...................................................59
3 Investigation of How Data Are Collected, Analyzed, and
Presented in Selected Studies ....................................................................61
3.1 Document Analysis ............................................................................61
3.2 Document Analysis Validation .........................................................63
3.2.1 Studies in Australia and New Zealand ..............................66
3.2.2 Studies in the United States ..................................................67
3.2.3 Studies in the United Kingdom ...........................................70
3.2.4 Studies in Norway .................................................................73
3.2.5 Summary of the Document Analysis .................................73
3.3 Discussion of Findings .......................................................................74
3.3.1 Development of Problem and Purpose ...............................75
3.3.2 How to Collect Data ..............................................................75
3.3.3 Quality Assurance of the Analysis .....................................77
3.3.4 Discussion and Presentation ................................................78
3.3.5 Summary .................................................................................78
4 Reliability and Uncertainty Evaluations in Fire
Sprinkler Systems ........................................................................................79
4.1 Sprinkler Reliability............................................................................79
4.2 Operational Reliability/Operationality ...........................................80
4.3 Performance Reliability/Efficiency ..................................................81
4.4 Control of All Factors and Uncertainty ...........................................81
5 Develop Methodologies and Proposals for Studies With
General Scientific Value ..............................................................................83
5.1 Methodology ........................................................................................84
5.2 How to Perform a Simple Study (Descriptive Study) ....................87
5.2.1 Step One: Development of Problem and Purpose.............87
5.2.2 Step Two: Choice of Overall Study Design ........................89
5.2.3 Step Three: How to Collect Data .........................................90
5.2.4 Step Four: Analyzing and Calculating, Including
Uncertainty .............................................................................92
5.2.5 Step Five: Quality Assurance of the Analysis ...................93
5.2.6 Step Six: Discussion and Presentation ................................94
5.2.7 Summary of Conducting a Simple Study ...........................95
Contents vii
5.3 How to Perform a Complex Study (Explanatory Study) ...............96
5.3.1 Step One: Development of Problem and Purpose.............96
5.3.2 Step Two: Choice of Overall Study Design ........................99
5.3.3 Step Three: How to Collect Data .......................................103
5.3.4 Step Four: Analyzing and Calculating, Including
Uncertainty ...........................................................................105
5.3.5 Step Five: Quality Assurance of the Analysis .................105
5.3.6 Step Six: Discussion and Presentation ..............................107
5.3.7 Summary of Conducting a Complex Study .....................107
6 Conclusion....................................................................................................109
6.1 Summary ............................................................................................109
6.2 Conclusion ..........................................................................................110
6.3 Suggestions for Further Work .........................................................112
6.4 How Scientific Is the Use of Document Analysis? .......................114
Glossary ...............................................................................................................117
References ...........................................................................................................119
Index .....................................................................................................................123
Foreword
From time to time, a book gives a surprising new perspective on a familiar
subject, in this case, sprinkler reliability. The impression of those outside the
fire engineering field is that sprinklers are reliable. After reading this work,
it is clear that whilst there is much good work on the collection, analysis, and
presentation of sprinkler data reliability, there are some basic ruptures in
approaches to the field.
I have worked in safety, risk management, economics, planning, and
industrial asset management for many years (operations, maintenance and
support management, design for performance, and production performance
management), so this book touches the core of my work. The consequences of
failure in any type of industry, especially the petroleum industry, can be cat-
astrophic if fire hazards are not treated with care and knowledge. Knowing
where hazards are and how to reduce them to an acceptable level is critical.
One of the most important tools is knowing the risk of assets not function-
ing as designed. If the risk is known, it can be reduced with proper testing,
inspection, and maintenance. Collecting historical data is crucial.
This book explains how to conduct research and suggests the develop-
ment of methodologies to collect, analyze, and present reliability data in the
safety and engineering field. It is of interest to all personnel working with
fire, safety, reliability, and engineering, especially those who need to make
decisions. There is probably no book like this one.
Professor Tore Markeset Ph.D.
Head of Department of Safety, Economics and
Planning, University of Stavanger
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