REGIONAL LAND USE ALLOCATION MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO PLANNING by ...

139 Pages·2011·6.7 MB·English

REGIONAL LAND USE ALLOCATION MODELS AND THEIR
APPLICATION TO PLANNING
by
URS JOSEF THICKER
Dipl. Ing. ETH, Swiss Institute of Technology, 1965
A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT
OF THE. REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
MASTER OF SCIENCE
in the School
of
Community and Regional Planning
We accept this thesis as conforming
to the required staadard
THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
May, 1969
In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for
an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that
the Library shall make it freely available for reference and Study.
I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis
for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or
by his representatives. It is understood that copying or publication
of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my
written permission.
Department of Community and Regional Planning
The University of British Columbia
Vancouver 8, Canada
Date April 30, 1969
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ABSTRACT
In the planning profession there is increasing recognition
of the complex relationship of variables in an urban
region which impede rational decision-making. In order
to cope with this problem, quantitative models have been
developed in recent years. It is the purpose of this study
to investigate and evaluate the present stage of model-
building as it applies to regional planning.
It is hypothesized that the application of land use allo
cation models is a desirable aid for rational decision
making in regional planning.
The study begins with an outline of the theoretical basis
for building land use allocation models: economic location
theory and social physics. Economic location theory is
mainly concerned with finding criteria for a rational
choice of the location for a firm or a household. In this
context, the concept of economic rent is discussed. In
order to give explanations of the land use patterns within
a region the basic notion in respect to agricultural pro
duction is developed and then extended to the urban land
iv
uses. The second approach to land use allocation models,
social physics, is mainly based on statistical regulari
ties in explaining human mass behavior. The most commonly
employed concept is the gravity principle, which is an
attempt to apply Newton's physical law of gravitation to
social, mass behavior. This concept is very often applied
in community and regional planning and has yielded accept
able results in a great number of studies.
In part three the most important elements and steps in
the process of model-building are discussed, including
rules or standards which should be considered by a model-
builder. First of all, a 'wide range of types of models are
examined in order that the proper model may be selected
for an actual regional planning problem. The design process
is also discussed in some detail and it is shown that there
is evidence of fundamental criteria for model building.
Part four is concerned with three selected existing regional
land use allocation models. The model of the Pittsburgh
Region was the first operational model on a regional level
and its ingenuity influenced numerous model-builders. One
of the most salient findings of this model, which is mainly
based on social physics, relates to the fact that the
gravity principle seems to have enough flexibility to
comprehend the spatial pattern of land uses within an urban
region.
V
The model of the State of Connecticut is based on the
shift-analysis framework and distributes three population
and six employment groups to the 169 towns of-the State
of Connecticut. Its basic feature is the ability to repli
cate the structure of a region as large as a state and it
is therefore of great interest as a macro-approach. The
structure of the model is relatively simple and the data
requirements are not intensive. Hence, it seems that such
a model framework could serve as a sound basis for models
in other study areas.
The Bay Area Simulation Study is one of the most recent
models. It introduces a high level of disaggregation and
assumptions which are based, to some extent, on economic
location theory. Hence, it can be said that its basic
concept relates to the working mechanism of the market
process. The structure of the model is based on a number
of interrelated submodels, including a set of employment
allocation models and a set of residential allocation models.
The final part of this study relates the findings of the
preceding parts to regional planning. It is shown that
regional planning is fundamentally a locational problem.
In addition, some experiences of model application by
planning agencies are discussed. These experiences emphasize
the fact that, the essential feature of land use allocation
models is to improve the rationality of decision-making. By
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comparing the advantages of models with the principal
difficulties in application it is then possible to derive
the final conclusion that land use allocation models are
a desirable aid for rational decision-making in regional
planning.
v ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT - i ii
LIST OF FIGURES . . . ix
LIST OF APPENDICES x
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT S xi
1. INTRODUCTION .1
1.1 The Problem 1
1.2 Purpose and Scope of this Study 4
1.3 Hypothesis 6
1.4 Definitions 6
1.5 Organization of the Remainder 7
2. APPROACHES TO REGIONAL ALLOCATION OF
ACTIVITIES 10
2.1 Economic Location Theory............. 11
2.1.1 Agricultural Rent and Land Use 13
2.1.2 Urban Land Uses . 16
2.1.3 General Equilibrium 20
2.2 Social Physics 23
3 . ELEMENTS OF MODEL BUILDING . . .' 33
3.1 Typology of Models 33
3.2 Design of a Model 41
3.2.1 The Variables and their Relevance 43
3.2.2 The Level of Aggregation 44
3.2.3 Formulation of the Mathematical Relationship 46
v i ii
3- 3 Calibration and Testing of a Model 50
4. SELECTED REGIONAL LAND USE MODELS 58
4.1 The Model of the Pittsburgh Region by Lowry .. 59
4.1.1 The Concept of the Model 59
4.1.2 The Structure of the Model 61
4- .1.3 Interpretation of the Model 66
4.1.4 Calibration of the Model 67
4.1.5 Testing of the Model '. 71
4.1.6 Evaluation 72
4.2 The Connecticut Model 73
4.2.1 Formulation of the Model 74
4.2.2 The Structure of the Model 76
4.2.3 Interpretation . .... 79
4.2.4 Calibration and Testing 81
4.3 The Bay Area Simulation Study 83
4.3.1 . Formulation of the Model 84
4.3.2 Employment Location Submodels 85
4.3.3 Residential Location Submodel 92
4.3.4 Appraisal ' 94
4.4 Conclusions 96
5 REGIONAL PLANNING AND LAND USE ALLOCATION
MODELS 101
5.1 Regional Planning and the Importance of Land
Use Allocation Models 101
5.2 Advantages of Land Use Allocation Models 103
5.3 Difficulties of Applications 106
5.4 Conclusions 108
BIBLIOGRAPHY 113
APPENDICES 119
ix
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
1 Agricultural bid rent function for one crop ... 15
2 Agricultural bid rent functions for two crops . 15
3 Bid rent functions for urban land uses 21
4 Bid rent functions for a hierarchy of centers . 21
5 Cumulation of errors 4-9
6 Structure of a chain model 49
7 Proposed structure of an improved model 49
8 Information flows in the Pittsburgh Model 62
9 Differential shift and proportional share 75
10 Structure of the Bay Area Simulation Study 85
11 Retail allocation flow diagram • ••• 89
X
LIST OF APPENDICES
Appendix Page
1 Cumulation of Errors 119
2 Variables and Parameters of the Pittsburgh
Model 122
3 Control Totals and Structural Parameters of
the Pittsburgh Model- 124
4 Employment Groups for the BASS Model 126