Table Of ContentAndromachi Tseloni
Rebecca Thompson · Nick Tilley
Reducing
Burglary
Reducing Burglary
Andromachi Tseloni • Rebecca Thompson
Nick Tilley
Reducing Burglary
Andromachi Tseloni Rebecca Thompson
Quantitative and Spatial Criminology Quantitative and Spatial Criminology
School of Social Sciences School of Social Sciences
Nottingham Trent University Nottingham Trent University
Nottingham, UK Nottingham, UK
Nick Tilley
Jill Dando Institute
Department of Security and Crime Science
University College London
London, UK
ISBN 978-3-319-99941-8 ISBN 978-3-319-99942-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99942-5
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018955907
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018
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Acknowledgements
Chapters 4, 5, 6, 8 and 9 of this book are based on the past work undertaken with
funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, Secondary Data Analysis
Initiative Phase 1 (ES/K003771/1 and ES/K003771/2). The authors are indebted to
the project’s Advisory Committee (http://www4.ntu.ac.uk/app_research/soc/docu-
ment_uploads/178982.pdf) for their support for the duration of the research project
and contribution to this work. Crime survey data sets used in this project are cited as
follows: Home Office, Research, Development and Statistics Directorate, TNS-
BMRB. (2012). British Crime Survey, 1992–2011. [data collection]. UK Data
Service. Retrieved from https://beta.ukdataservice.ac.uk/datacatalogue/series/
series?id=200009; and Office for National Statistics. (2013). Crime Survey for
England and Wales, 2011–2012. [data collection]. UK Data Service. Retrieved from
https://beta.ukdataservice.ac.uk/datacatalogue/series/series?id=200009. Any errors
or omissions are entirely the authors’ responsibility.
v
Contents
1 Introduction ............................................... 1
Andromachi Tseloni, Rebecca Thompson, and Nick Tilley
1.1 Domestic Burglary: Definition, Data Sources and Counts........ 2
1.2 The Distribution of Burglary............................... 4
1.3 Repeat Victimisation..................................... 12
1.4 Burglary Trends ........................................ 14
1.5 The Impact of Burglary................................... 15
1.6 Responding to Burglary .................................. 15
1.7 Outline of the Remainder of the Book ....................... 16
References ................................................. 17
2 A Short History of the England and Wales National
Burglary Security Initiatives.................................. 21
Gloria Laycock and Nick Tilley
2.1 Introduction............................................ 21
2.2 Background............................................ 23
2.3 Programmes ........................................... 25
2.3.1 N eighbourhood Watch ............................. 25
2.3.2 P roperty Marking ................................. 26
2.3.3 P ublicity Schemes................................. 26
2.3.4 T he Kirkholt Burglary Prevention Project .............. 27
2.3.5 S afer Cities ...................................... 28
2.3.6 H uddersfield and the ‘Olympic’ Model ................ 31
2.3.7 C rime Reduction Programme........................ 32
2.3.8 D esign Against Crime.............................. 33
2.3.9 A lley Gating ..................................... 33
2.3.10 E state Action, Single Regeneration Budget
and Priority Estates................................ 34
2.3.11 I mproved Street Lighting ........................... 35
2.4 The Vexed Question of Displacement........................ 36
vii
viii Contents
2.5 Lessons Learned ........................................ 37
2.5.1 W hat Worked?.................................... 37
2.5.2 W hat Didn’t Work................................. 39
2.5.3 T he Importance of Context.......................... 39
2.5.4 S trategy......................................... 40
2.6 Conclusions............................................ 41
References ................................................. 41
3 Domestic Burglary: Burglar Responses to Target Attractiveness.... 45
Rachel Armitage
3.1 Introduction............................................ 45
3.2 Reducing Burglary Through Secured by Design ............... 46
3.2.1 P lace-Based Crime Reduction ....................... 46
3.2.2 C rime Prevention through Environmental
Design (CPTED).................................. 47
3.2.3 S ecured by Design (SBD): Development,
Management and Implementation..................... 47
3.2.4 C onsideration for Crime Prevention Within
the Planning System ............................... 48
3.2.5 E valuating the Effectiveness of Secured
by Design (SBD).................................. 51
3.2.6 T he Principles of Secured by Design (SBD)
and Their Individual Impact on Crime ................. 53
3.3 Accounting for Burglar Perceptions......................... 55
3.3.1 M ethodology..................................... 55
3.3.2 L imitations of the Research ......................... 56
3.4 Burglar Accounts of Target Attractiveness: Research Findings .... 58
3.4.1 W hat Makes a Suitable Target?....................... 58
3.4.2 W hat Makes an Unsuitable Target? ................... 59
3.4.3 S urveillance...................................... 61
3.4.4 M ovement Control ................................ 63
3.4.5 D efensible Space.................................. 66
3.4.6 P hysical Security.................................. 67
3.4.7 M anagement and Maintenance....................... 70
3.5 W hat Can Secured by Design Learn from Burglar Accounts?..... 71
References ................................................. 73
4 W hich Security Devices Reduce Burglary?...................... 77
Rebecca Thompson, Andromachi Tseloni, Nick Tilley,
Graham Farrell, and Ken Pease
4.1 Introduction............................................ 77
4.2 Previous Work on Security Availability ...................... 78
4.3 Previous Work on Security Device Effectiveness
Against Burglary........................................ 80
4.3.1 V ictimisation Survey Data .......................... 80
4.3.2 O ffender Interviews ............................... 82
4.3.3 L arge-Scale Initiatives ............................. 84
Contents ix
4.4 Data and Methods....................................... 85
4.4.1 W hy Examine Attempted Burglary and Burglary
with Entry Separately? ............................. 86
4.5 Results................................................ 88
4.5.1 F AVOR-able Cues: Accessibility and Occupancy ........ 88
4.5.2 W hich Security Devices Deter and Which Thwart?....... 90
4.6 Discussion and Conclusion................................ 93
Appendix A ................................................ 97
A.1 Introduction............................................ 97
A.2 Crime Survey for England and Wales Sample Selection ......... 97
A.3 Crime Survey for England and Wales Questionnaire Structure .... 97
A.4 Limitations ............................................ 98
A.4.1 Security Information Is Not Available
for All Burglary Victims............................ 98
A.4.2 Victims of Both Attempted Burglary and Burglary
with Entry Are Excluded............................ 100
A.5 Alternative Deter/Thwart Calculations....................... 100
A.6 More Information ....................................... 102
References ................................................. 102
5 H ousehold- and Area-Level Differences in Burglary Risk
and Security Availability over Time............................ 107
Andromachi Tseloni and Rebecca Thompson
5.1 Introduction............................................ 107
5.2 Theoretical Framework................................... 109
5.3 Previous Research Evidence............................... 111
5.3.1 B urglary Risks in Context........................... 111
5.3.2 S ecurity Availability in Context ...................... 112
5.3.3 S ecurity Availability and Burglary Risk in Context . . . . . . . 113
5.3.4 Who Has Benefited the Most (or, Conversely,
Drew Negligible Benefits) from the Reduction
in Burglary Risk and the Increase
in Security Availability? ............................ 114
5.3.5 L imitations of Previous Research..................... 116
5.4 Effective Security Availability and Burglary Risks
During the Crime Drop................................... 117
5.4.1 D ata and Methodology ............................. 117
5.4.2 Burglary Risk and Effective Security Correlation
During the Crime Drop............................. 119
5.5 Effective Security Availability and Burglary Risks
in Context over the Period of the Crime Drop ................. 121
5.5.1 General Remarks, Population Groups
and Their (National Average) Burglary Risks............ 121
5.5.2 Effective Security and Burglary Risk Across
Ethnic Groups.................................... 127
5.5.3 Effective Security and Burglary Risk with Respect
to Household Composition.......................... 129
x Contents
5.5.4 Effective Security and Burglary Risk with Respect
to Household Tenure............................... 133
5.5.5 Effective Security and Burglary Risk with Respect
to Annual Household Income........................ 135
5.5.6 Effective Security and Burglary Risk with Respect
to Household Car Ownership ........................ 138
5.5.7 Effective Security and Burglary Risk by Area
of Residence ..................................... 139
5.6 Security-Driven Burglary Drop and Distributive Justice ......... 141
5.7 How Can Crime Prevention Redress the Uneven
Burglary Drop and Reignite Overall Falls? ................... 144
Appendix B ................................................ 146
B.1 Data and Methodology ................................... 146
B.1.1 Variables........................................ 146
B.1.2 Data and Sample Sizes............................. 147
B.1.3 Statistical Model and Modelling Strategy .............. 151
B.2 The Correlation of Burglary Risk and Effective Security
Availability Nationally, 1993–2011/2012..................... 156
B.3 Estimated Bivariate Logit Regression Models of Burglary
Risk and WIDE Security Availability During the Crime Drop..... 157
References ................................................. 161
6 An Evaluation of a Research-Informed Target Hardening
Initiative .................................................. 165
James Hunter and Andromachi Tseloni
6.1 Introduction............................................ 165
6.2 Evaluation of Burglary Reduction Initiatives .................. 167
6.2.1 Theoretical Underpinnings: Repeat and Near Repeat
Victimisation..................................... 167
6.2.2 Key Methodological Issues in the Evaluation of Burglary
Reduction Initiatives............................... 167
6.3 Project Context ......................................... 169
6.3.1 The City of Nottingham ............................ 169
6.3.2 Burglary Profile of Nottingham ...................... 170
6.3.3 Nottingham Crime and Drugs Partnership (NCDP)....... 170
6.4 T he Nottingham Pilot Burglary Target Hardening Initiative ...... 171
6.4.1 P roject Inception and Operational Framework........... 171
6.4.2 R esearch-Informed Project Aims and Protocol........... 171
6.4.3 Selection of Participating Areas ...................... 173
6.4.4 Pilot Process: Planning, Implementation, Security Cost
and Evaluation ................................... 175
6.5 Evaluation............................................. 180
6.5.1 Pilot Data ....................................... 180
6.5.2 E valuation Data: Did It Work? ....................... 183
6.6 Discussion and Conclusion................................ 185
Contents xi
Appendix C ................................................ 186
C.1 The Nottingham Crime and Drugs Partnership (NCDP) ......... 186
C.1.1 Statement ....................................... 186
C.1.2 For Recognition .................................. 187
C.1.3 History ......................................... 187
C.2 Selected Protocol and Home Security Assessment Templates ..... 188
References ................................................. 191
7 The Role of Security Devices Against Burglaries: Findings
from the French Victimisation Survey.......................... 195
Amandine Sourd and Vincent Delbecque
7.1 Introduction............................................ 195
7.2 Source, Contextual Data and Modelling...................... 198
7.2.1 S ource.......................................... 198
7.2.2 D efining the Three Stages of the Burglary .............. 199
7.2.3 Security Features and Information Regarding
the Presence of Someone in the Housing Unit........... 202
7.2.4 E nvironmental Factors and Lifestyle .................. 204
7.2.5 M odelling ....................................... 205
7.3 Results................................................ 206
7.3.1 T he Role of Security Devices........................ 206
7.3.2 A nalysis of Combinations of Devices.................. 211
7.3.3 T he Specific Case of Repeat Victimisations............. 214
7.4 Discussion............................................. 217
Appendix D ................................................ 220
References ................................................. 221
8 T he Role of Security in Causing Drops in Domestic Burglary ...... 223
Nick Tilley, Graham Farrell, Andromachi Tseloni,
and Rebecca Thompson
8.1 Introduction............................................ 223
8.2 A Comprehensive Theory of the Crime Drop.................. 226
8.2.1 S eventeen Propositions and Four Tests................. 226
8.2.2 T he Security Hypothesis............................ 226
8.3 Testing the Security Hypothesis for the Burglary Drop:
A Data Signatures Approach............................... 229
8.4 S ecurity-Led Burglary Drop in England and Wales . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
8.4.1 Signature 1: There Would Be an Overall Increase
in the Level of Security of Dwellings.................. 230
8.4.2 Signature 2: There Would Be a Reduction
in the Proportion of Dwellings Unprotected
by Security Measures .............................. 231
8.4.3 Signature 3: Dwellings with More Security
Would Generally Be Less Vulnerable to Burglary
than Those with Less Security ....................... 232
