Reducing Boating Accidents through Advanced Risk Analysis

228 Pages·2015·7.67 MB·English

ABSTRACT
Ernest G. Marshburn. BEYOND HUMAN FACTORS: EXAMINING THE UNDERLYING
DETERMINANTS OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENTS WITH SPATIAL
ANALYSIS AND MODELING (Under the direction of Dr. Ronald L. Mitchelson) Institute
for Coastal Science and Policy, Ph.D. Coastal Resources Management, December,
2014.

Recreational boating has grown in popularity in recent decades, accompanied
with increased accidents resulting in property damage and personal injury. Some 5,000
recreational boating accidents are reported annually, ranking recreational boating as a
leading cause of transportation accidents, second only to automotive.
Recent research suggests that recreational boating accidents stem from multiple
factors. In contrast, public perception and public policy overwhelmingly attribute boating
accidents to human error, e.g., operator drug or alcohol use or lack of experience. This
dissertation offers a comprehensive perspective on recreational boating accidents by
exploring human, technological, and environmental factors that most influence these
accidents. This level of inclusiveness is absent from previous research.
The conceptual model developed in this dissertation is derived from general
accident theory that integrates spatial and temporal qualities of recreational boating
(and boating accidents) from satellite imagery, on-the-water boater surveys, and federal
boating accident data. Data were assembled for two distinctive research sites,
Sandusky, OH and Tampa, FL. Analyses of these data depended, in part, upon various
forms of spatial statistics, e.g., hot spot analyses. The boating accident model
developed in this study uses the multivariate negative binomial model to analyze
accident count data aggregated to 0.25 mi2 grid cells. The result is a synthetic model
with improved parameter estimates and predictive capability compared to previous
boating accident research. Key risk factors contained in the final model clearly
represent human (operator experience), technological (boat speed and length), and
environmental (boat density and channel character) dimensions.
This research has important societal impact, i.e., to public officials faced with the
allocation of limited resources. In particular, this research emphasizes the concentrated
nature of boating risk in time (seasonality, day of week, time of day) and in space
(shoals, channels, fixed facilities). These features should guide the timing and the
placement of mobile law enforcement capacity as well as the location of operation
centers near high risk boating sites. Finally, this work emphasizes the need for
investigations of additional sites and the importance of including remotely sensed data
to complement survey data in studies of recreational boating accidents.

BEYOND HUMAN FACTORS: EXAMINING THE UNDERLYING DETERMINANTS
OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENTS WITH SPATIAL ANALYSIS
AND MODELING

A Dissertation
Presented to
the Faculty of the Institute for Coastal Science
and Policy, Coastal Resources Management
East Carolina University

In Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree
Ph.D. Coastal Resources Management
Primary Concentration in Social Science & Coastal Policy
Secondary Concentration in Coastal & Estuarine Ecology

by

Ernest G. Marshburn

December, 2014
© Copyright 2014
Ernest G. Marshburn
BEYOND HUMAN FACTORS: EXAMINING THE UNDERLYING DETERMINANTS
OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENTS WITH SPATIAL ANALYSIS
AND MODELING

by
Ernest G. Marshburn

DISSERTATION DIRECTOR:
(Ronald L. Mitchelson, Ph.D.)

COMMITTEE MEMBER:
(Yong Wang, Ph.D.)

COMMITTEE MEMBER:
(Thomas R. Allen, Ph.D.)

COMMITTEE MEMBER:
(Claudia L. Jolls, Ph.D.)

COMMITTEE MEMBER:
(Lynn L. Harris, Ph.D.)

COMMITTEE MEMBER:
(Jason S. Brinkley, Ph.D.)

Director, Ph.D. COASTAL
RESOURCES MANAGEMENT;
INSTITUTE FOR COASTAL
SCIENCE AND POLICY:
(Hans Vogelsong, Ph.D.)

DEAN OF THE
GRADUATE SCHOOL:
(Paul J. Gemperline, Ph.D.)
vii
DEDICATION
Special thanks go to my family, David Marshburn (brother), Tammy Burroughs
(sister), and extended family members (Slater Burroughs, Lorrie Marshburn, Margaret
and Baxter Matheson, Matt Burroughs, Michelle Burroughs, Jeremy Marshburn, Eric
Marshburn, and Adam Marshburn) without whose love, support, and steadfast belief; I
could not have turned this dream into a reality.
Most especially, my continuing gratitude and special thanks go to my wife,
Dianne Marshburn. She has been patient, understanding, supportive, and most
importantly encouraging during a time when my research focus took priority over family
time. This critical and timely support provided the foundation required for the successful
completion of an area of recreational boating research that we are both passionate
about.
viii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My profound gratitude is expressed to the many people who have supported my
scholarly and research work in pursuit of a Ph.D. in Coastal Resources Management.
First, I thank my adviser, Ron Mitchelson, Ph.D., for his support, encouragement, and
mentoring in connection with this invaluable and enriching educational experience. I
also thank my dissertation committee, Yong Wang, Ph.D., Tom Allen, Ph.D., Claudia
Jolls, Ph.D., Lynn Harris, Ph.D., and Jason Brinkley, Ph.D., who offered course of study,
scholarly advice, and comforting spirits. Appreciation is also expressed to the Institute
for Coastal Science and Policy faculty and staff, especially, Hans Vogelsong, Ph.D.,
Kay Evans, and Cindy Harper and fellow CRM student colleagues, especially Cecilia
Krahforst and Mahealani Kaneshiro-Pineiro, for their continuing encouragement.
I would like to express appreciation to my program collaborators including the
Department of Homeland Security, United States Coast Guard (CAPT Mark Rizzo,
CAPT Tom Boross, Jeff Hoedt, and Susan Tomczuk), USPS (Mary Catherine Berube,
SueLee Tang), National Association of State Boating Law Administrators (John
Johnson), Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (Richard Moore, Seth
Wagner), the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Watercraft (Pam
Dillon, Rodger Norcross, Tammy Terry), DigiGlobe (Jennifer Kennedy, Jeff Ferrara,
Timothy C. Kammerer, and Diana Pavlecka), Intergraph ERDAS Imagine (Diane
Geheber), and PCI Geomatics (Deborah Panagopoulos, Ross Downey) for research
funding, software, and data support.
ix
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DEDICATION…………………………………………………………………………… iv

ACKNOWLDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………..... v

LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………….………… x

LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………..………… xi

CHAPTER 1: THE RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENT PARADOX………. 1

Boating Safety………………………………………………………..………… 2

Under-Reporting………………………………………………………………... 3

Under-Reporting Problem……………………………………………………... 4

Traffic Safety and Policy……………………………………………..………... 5

Historical Perspectives……………………………………………….………... 6

Significance of the Study and Broader Impact…………………….……….. 8

Limitations and Assumptions………………………………………..……….. 9

Boating Accidents through an Economic, Political, and Social Lens…….. 9

Research Study Overview…………………………………………...……….. 10

CHAPTER 2: EXISTING RESEARCH ON RECREATIONAL BOATING
ACCIDENTS………………………………………………………………….……….. 12

Research Context and Theoretical Framework…………………..……….. 13

Key Concepts………………………………………………………………….. 17

The Human Dimension……………………………………….……….. 18

The Technological Dimension……………………………….……….. 19

The Environmental Dimension……………………………………….. 20

Proposed Recreational Boating Accident Model………………….……….. 21

Review of Recreational Boating Accident Literature: Prior to 1989……… 23
x