Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise

285 Pages·2012·1.56 MB·English

by  Carl Walter

RED CAPITALISM
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RED CAPITALISM
The Fragile Financial
Foundation of China’s
Extraordinary Rise
Revised and Updated
Carl E. Walter
and
Fraser J. T. Howie
John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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Copyright © 2012, 2011 John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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To John Wilson Lewis
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Contents
Preface to the Second Edition ...............................................................xi
Preface to the First Edition ................................................................xvii
List of Abbreviations ............................................................................xxi
1. Looking Back at the Policy of Reform
and Opening ................................................................................1
Thirty years of opening up: 1978–2008 .......................................2
Thirteen years of reform: 1992–2005 .........................................10
The end of reform: 2005 .............................................................15
China is a family business ..........................................................22
2. China’s Fortress Banking System ...........................................27
Banks are China’s fi nancial system ............................................29
China’s banks are big banks ......................................................31
Crisis: The stimulus to bank reform,
1988 and 1998 ............................................................................33
China’s fortress banking system in 2010 ....................................41
The sudden thirst for capital and cash dividends, 2010 .............47
3. The Fragile Fortress .................................................................53
The People’s Bank of China restructuring model ......................56
The Ministry of Finance restructuring model ............................66
The “perpetual put” option to the PBOC ...................................73
The new Great Leap Forward Economy ....................................76
China’s latest banking model .....................................................82
Valuing the asset management companies .................................85
Implications ................................................................................88
vii
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viii (cid:129) (cid:129) (cid:129) Contents
4. China’s Captive Bond Market ................................................95
Why does China have a bond market? .......................................98
Risk management .....................................................................102
The base of the pyramid: Protecting household
depositors .................................................................................116
5. The Struggle over China’s Bond Markets ............................125
The CDB, the MOF, and the Big 4 Banks ................................126
Local governments unleashed ..................................................134
Credit enhancements ................................................................141
China Investment Corporation:
Linchpin of China’s fi nancial system .......................................145
Cycles in the fi nancial markets .................................................158
6. Western Finance, SOE Reform, and
China’s Stock Markets ...........................................................163
China’s stock markets today .....................................................164
Why does China have stock markets? ......................................168
What stock markets gave China ...............................................172
7. The National Team and China’s Government .....................185
Zhu Rongji’s gift: Organizational streamlining, 1998..............186
How the National Team, its families, and friends
benefi t .......................................................................................196
A casino or a success, or both? .................................................209
Implications ..............................................................................212
8. The Forbidden City ................................................................215
The Emperor of Finance ...........................................................217
Behind the vermillion walls .....................................................220
An Empire apart .......................................................................227
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Contents (cid:129) (cid:129) (cid:129) ix
Have the walls been breached? ................................................231
Cracks in the walls ...................................................................235
Imperial ornaments ...................................................................239
Appendix ....................................................................................245
Select Bibliography ...................................................................249
Index ..........................................................................................251
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