Table Of ContentReal-Time and Deliberative Decision Making
NATO Science for Peace and Security Series
This Series presents the results of scientifi c meetings supported under the NATO Programme: Science
for Peace and Security (SPS).
The NATO SPS Programme supports meetings in the following Key Priority areas: (1) Defence
Against Terrorism; (2) Countering other Threats to Security and (3) NATO, Partner and Mediterra-
nean Dialogue Country Priorities. The types of meeting supported are generally "Advanced Study
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of these meetings. The meetings are coorganized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists
from NATO's "Partner" or "Mediterranean Dialogue" countries. The observations and recommenda-
tions made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, refl ect those of
participants and contributors only; they should not necessarily be regarded as refl ecting NATO views
or policy.
Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses intended to convey the latest
developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience
Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but informal exchange
of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action
Following a transformation of the programme in 2006 the Series has been re-named and re-organised.
Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from meetings supported under the
programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science Series.
The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the
NATO Public Diplomacy Division.
Sub-Series
A. Chemistry and Biology Springer
B. Physics and Biophysics Springer
C. Environmental Security Springer
D. Information and Communication Security IOS Press
E. Human and Societal Dynamics IOS Press
http://www.nato.int/science
http://www.springer.com
http://www.iospress.nl
Series C: Environmental Security
Real-Time and Deliberative
Decision Making
Application to Emerging Stressors
Edited by
Igor Linkov
U.S. Army Engineer
Research and Development Center
Concord, Massachusetts, USA
Elizabeth Ferguson
U.S. Army Engineer
Research and Development Center
Vicksburg, Massachusetts, USA
Victor S. Magar
ENVIRON International Corporation
Chicago, Illinois, USA
Based on papers presented at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Risk,
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis for Environmental Security
and Non-chemical Stressors, Estoril,
Portugal, April 2007
Library of Congress Control Number: 2008934299.
ISBN 978-1-4020-9025-7 (PB)
ISBN 978-1-4020-9024-0 (HB)
ISBN 978-1-4020-9026-4 (e-book)
Published by Springer,
P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
www.springer.com
Printed on acid-free paper
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© 2008 Springer Science + Business Media B.V.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface .......................................................................................................ix
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................xv
Part 1. R eal-Time and Deliberative Decision Making:
Needs and Applications
Cognitive Aspects of Business Innovation: Scientific Process
and Military Experience .............................................................................3
I. Linkov, C. Shilling, D. Slavin, E. Shamir
A Synopsis of Immediate and Deliberate
Environmental Assessments ......................................................................21
S.M. Cormier
Federal Decision Making for Homeland
Security: Mapping the Normative/Descriptive
Divide .......................................................................................................31
L. Valverde, Jr., S. Farrow
Group Information-Seeking Behavior
in Emergency Response: An Investigation
of Expert/Novice Differences ....................................................................55
Q. Gu, D. Mendonça
The Use of War Game Simulations for Business Strategies ......................77
B. Sheppard, D. Slavin
An Integrated Approach for Flood Risk Management .............................91
J. Ganoulis
Rationale and Development of a Scale
to Communicate Environmental and Other Community Risks ..............103
M.M. Plum
v
vi TABLE OF CONTENTS
Part 2. Risk Assessment for Emerging Stressors
Nanomaterial Risk Assessment and Risk Management:
Review of Regulatory Frameworks .........................................................129
I. Linkov, F.K. Satterstrom
Estimation of Effect Thresholds for the Development of
Water Quality Criteria ............................................................................159
S. Cormier, P. Shaw-Allen, J.F. Paul, R.L. Spehar
Comprehensive Risk Assessment: Applying the Cultural
Property Risk Analysis Model to the Canadian
Museum of Nature .................................................................................179
R. Waller
DPSIR and Risk Assessment of Dumped Chemical
Warfare Agents in the Baltic Sea ............................................................191
H. Sanderson, M. Thomsen, P. Fauser
Social and Ecological Challenges within the
Realm of Environmental Security ...........................................................203
L. Kapustka, R. McCormick, K. Froese
Adaptive Management and the Comprehensive
Everglades Restoration Plan ...................................................................213
D. Guinto, R. Reed
Part 3. Multicriteria Decision Analysis: Methodology and Tools
Uncertainty Modeling with Imprecise Statistical
Reasoning and the Precautionary Principle
in Decision Making ................................................................................225
I. Kozine
SMAA-III: A Simulation-Based Approach for Sensitivity
Analysis of ELECTRE III .....................................................................241
T. Tervonen, J.R. Figueira, R. Lahdelma, P. Salminen
TABLE OF CONTENTS vii
Attracting Additional Information for Enhancing
the Uncertainty Model: Towards Improved
Risk Assessments ....................................................................................255
V. G. Krymsky
Modeling Stakeholder Preferences with Probabilistic
Inversion: Application to Prioritizing Marine
Ecosystem Vulnerabilities .......................................................................265
R. Neslo, F. Micheli, C.V. Kappel, K.A. Selkoe,
B.S. Halpern, R.M. Cooke
Operations Research and Decision Analysis:
Software Tools and Applications ............................................................285
D. Strimling
Multicriteria Decision Analysis and Life Cycle
Assessment: Applications under High Uncertainty.................................305
K. Rogers, T. Seager, I. Linkov
Decision Evaluation for Complex Environmental Risk
Networked Systems (DECERNS): Cost/Benefit
Module and Application to Wildlife Reserve Management ....................315
A. Grebenkov, A. Yakushau, A. Lukashevich, T. Sullivan, I. Linkov
Sustainable Management of Water Resources and
Minimization of Environmental Risks: A Multi-Portfolio
Optimization Model ...............................................................................329
E. Levner, J. Ganoulis, D. Alcaide López de Pablo, I. Linkov
Avoiding MCDA Evaluation Pitfalls ......................................................349
J. Barzilai
Part 4. A pplications of Multicriteria Decision Analysis for
Environmental Stressors
Approaches Used for Remedy Selection at
Contaminated Sediment Sites: Analysis of Two Case Studies ................357
V.S. Magar, K. Merritt, M. Henning, M. Sorensen, R.J. Wenning
viii TABLE OF CONTENTS
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Choosing
the Remediation Method for a Landfill Based
on Mixed Ordinal and Cardinal Information .........................................379
R. Lahdelma, P. Salminen
Ordinal Measurements with Interval Constraints in the
EIA Process for Siting a Waste Storage Area .........................................397
R. Lahdelma, P. Salminen
Balancing Socioeconomic and Environmental Risks and
Benefits under Multiple Stressor Conditions: A Case Study
of the Powder River Basin in Wyoming ..................................................415
S. Shalhevet
Risk Assessment of Radionuclide Contamination
in Potable Water......................................................................................427
A.A. Bayramov, S.M. Bayramova
Assessment of Groundwater Contamination Risk
from Nonchemical Stressors in Wastewater ............................................435
N. Haruvy, S. Shalhevet
Wastewater Reuse: Risk Assessment, Decision Making,
and Environmental Security: A Technical Report ...................................445
M.K. Zaidi
List of Participants .................................................................................451
PREFACE
Over the past eight years, the editors of this book and their colleagues have
convened a series of meetings to explore the topic of making policy decisions
in the face of social and environmental management uncertainties. Each
workshop has tried to demonstrate the power of risk assessment and deci-
sion analysis as tools that decision makers should use to understand complex
environmental, economic, legal, social, and technological information and
to make rational, informed decisions. The first workshop in this series, enti-
tled, “Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks: Cost-efficient
Methods and Applications”(Lisbon, Portugal; October 2000) [1], confirmed
the role risk assessment could play as a platform for providing a scientific
basis for environmentally sound and cost-efficient management policies,
strategies, and solutions to various environmental problems. The second
workshop, entitled, “Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental
Management” (Anzio, Italy; May 2002) [2], explored the development and
application of comparative risk assessment (CRA) and other risk-based,
decision-analysis tools in environmental management. The use of CRA was
exceptional for facilitating decision making when various social, political, and
economic activities compete for limited environmental resources. The third
workshop, entitled, “The Role of Risk Assessment in Environmental Security and
Emergency Preparedness in Mediterranean Region” (Eilat, Israel; April 2004) [3],
focused on environmental security challenges in the Middle East and how
risk assessment could resolve some of the region’s pressing environmental
needs. The fourth workshop, entitled, “Environmental Security In Harbors
And Coastal Areas: Management Using Comparative Risk Assessment And
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis” (Thessaloniki, Greece; April 2005) [4],
explored environmental security issues in ports, harbors, and coastal areas
and how the use of MCDA, in conjunction with risk assessment, could
evaluate environmental security threats, formulate responses to those threats,
and evaluate the threat-reduction efficacy of different responses. The fifth
workshop, entitled, “Management Tools for Port Security, Critical Infrastructure,
and Sustainability” (Venice, Italy; March 2006) [5] merged the concepts of envi-
ronmental risks and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities with the objective
of harmonizing risk management and decision support methods and tools.
This book is based on discussions and papers presented at a sixth work-
shop, entitled “Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Analysis for Environmental
Security and Non-chemical Stressors.” This meeting—held in Estoril, Portugal,
in April 2007—started with building a foundation to apply chemical risk
assessment approaches and tools to a broad collection of non-chemical
ix
x PREFACE
stressors, including physical (unexploded ordnance, noise, temperature, pH)
and novel technologies, as well as emerging materials (nanomaterials, phar-
maceuticals and pathogens), and biological agents (invasive species, biocon-
trol agents, biological warfare agents). More than 60 international science,
risk assessment, decision-making, and security analysts from 14 countries
discussed the current state-of-knowledge with regard to emerging stressors
and risk management, focusing on the adequacy of available systematic,
quantitative tools to guide vulnerability and threat assessments, evaluate the
consequences of different events and responses, and support decision-mak-
ing. This workshop, like those previous, was sponsored jointly by the Society
for Risk Analysis and NATO.
The organization of the book reflects sessions and discussions during the
Estoril meeting. The goals of the meeting were to review the needs, meth-
ods, and tools for real time and deliberative decision making and develop
a solution-focused framework and supporting tools. The papers included
in Part 1 focuses primarily on real time decision making in emergency set-
tings. It includes reviews of military decision making, response to floods and
homeland security threats as well as applications in business settings. Part 2
highlights regulatory and management challenges associated with non-chem-
ical stressors, including nano-materials, suspended and bedded sediments,
warfare agents, and physical environmental stressors. Part 3 provides multi-
criteria decision analysis methods and tools that are useful for supporting
management decisions and focuses on methodology development. The final
section encompasses a series of case studies that illustrate different applica-
tions and needs across MCDA applications.
The wide variety of content in the book reflects the workshop partici-
pants’ diverse views and regional and global concerns. They also reflect the
increasing complexity of societal and environmental change in response to
the new global economy that requires an enhanced capacity for scientific
assessment and management. Public pressure for decision transparency in
government and corporations drives the need for more deliberative decision
making and a framework for thinking about globalization and the prioriti-
zation of social and corporate resources that reaches beyond the realms of
economics, world trade, and corporate management to include environmental
protection and social goals. Risk assessment and decision analysis have been
proposed to guide policies in many settings, including military, corporate,
environmental, and others. Risk assessment offers a relatively objective,
unbiased, and rational approach for framing and solving complex problems
based on assessing the likelihood of hazard, potential population exposure,
and resulting impairments. It is increasingly likely that decision analysis will
supplement traditional risk assessment by providing the means for integrat-
ing heterogeneous scientific information, technical expert j udgment, and
