Rationality and Social Responsibility: Essays in Honor of Robyn Mason Dawes (Modern Pioneers in Psychological Science: An Aps-Lea Series)

392 Pages·2008·4.31 MB·English

by  Joachim I. Krueger

RATIONALITY
AND SOCIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
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Modern Pioneers in Psychological
science: an aPs-Psychology Press series
This series celebrates the careers and contributions of a generation of
pioneers in psychological science. Based on the proceedings of day-long
Festschrift events at the annual meeting of the Association for Psycho-
logical Science, each volume commemorates the research and life of an
exceptionally influential scientist. These books document the profes-
sional and personal milestones that have shaped the frontiers of prog-
ress across a variety of areas, from theoretical discoveries to innovative
applications and from experimental psychology to clinical research.
The unifying element among the individuals and books in this series
is a commitment to science as the key to understanding and improving
the human condition.
PUBLISHED TITLES
1. Psychological Clinical Science: Papers in Honor of Richard M.
McFall, edited by Teresa A. Treat, Richard R. Bootzin, and
Timothy B. Baker (2007).
2. Rationality and Social Responsibility: Essays in Honor of Robyn
Mason Dawes, edited by Joachim I. Krueger (2008).
ER59969.indb 2 3/21/08 10:49:52 AM
RATIONALITY
AND SOCIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
Essays in Honor of Robyn Mason Dawes
Edited by
Joachim I. Krueger
aps
ASSOCIATION FOR
PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
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Psychology Press Psychology Press
Taylor & Francis Group Taylor & Francis Group
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New York, NY 10016 Hove, East Sussex BN3 2FA
© 2008 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Printed in the United States of America on acid‑free paper
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International Standard Book Number‑13: 978‑0‑8058‑5996‑6 (Hardcover)
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used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data
Rationality and social responsibility : essays in honor of Robyn Mason Dawes / editor,
Joachim I. Krueger.
p. cm. ‑‑ (Modern pioneers in psychological science) (An APS‑LEA series)
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978‑0‑8058‑5996‑6 (alk. paper)
1. Reasoning (Psychology) 2. Thought and thinking. 3. Decision making. 4.
Responsibility. I. Dawes, Robyn M., 1936‑ II. Krueger, Joachim I.
BF442.R37 2008
153.4‑‑dc22 2007045940
Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at
http://www.taylorandfrancis.com
and the Psychology Press Web site at
http://www.psypress.com
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contents
Acknowledgments vii
Chapter 1 A Psychologist between Logos and Ethos 1
JoAChIm I. KRuEgER
Chapter 2 The gambler’s Fallacy and the Coin’s memory 21
ERIC goLd
goRdon hESTER
Chapter 3 Being an Advocate for Linear models of Judgment Is
not an Easy Life 47
hAL R. ARKES
Chapter 4 What makes Improper Linear models Tick? 71
JASon dAnA
Chapter 5 Why meta-Science Should Be Irresistible to decision
Researchers 91
dAvId FAuST
Chapter 6 The Robust Beauty of Simple Associations 111
JoAChIm I. KRuEgER
Chapter 7 When It Is Rational for the majority to Believe That
They Are Better Than Average 141
don mooRE
dEBoRAh SmALL

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i • Contents
Chapter 8 Wishful Thinking in Predicting World Cup Results 175
mAyA BAR-hILLEL
dAvId v. BudESCu
moTy AmAR
Chapter 9 how Expectations Affect Behavior 187
CRISTInA BICChIERI
Chapter 10 depersonalized Trust and Ingroup Cooperation 215
mARILynn B. BREWER
Chapter 11 must good guys Finish Last? 233
dAvId mESSICK
Chapter 12 Women’s Beliefs about Breast Cancer Risk Factors:
A mental models Approach 245
STEPhAnIE J. ByRAm
LISA m. SChWARTz
STEvEn WoLoShIn
BARuCh FISChhoFF
Chapter 13 groups and the Evolution of good Stories and good
Choices 275
LInndA R. CAPoRAEL
Appendix 1 The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear models in
decision making 321
RoByn m. dAWES
Appendix 2 Behavior, Communication, and Assumptions about
other People’s Behavior in a Commons dilemma
Situation 345
RoByn m. dAWES
JEAnnE mCTAvISh
hARRIET ShAKLEE
Appendix 3 Robyn m. dawes’s Festschrift Remarks 363
Appendix 4 Robyn m. dawes’s Biography and Selected Work 365
Contributors 371
Subject Index 377
Author Index 383
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acknowledgMents
Robyn m. dawes was honored in a day-long symposium on may 29,
2005, as part of the 17th Annual Convention of the Association for Psy-
chological Science (APS) in Los Angeles, California. most of the chap-
ters collected in this volume are records of contributions to this event.
other chapters were solicited after the symposium.
The production of this Festschrift was supported by grants of the
Association for Psychological Science, The Society for Judgment and
decision making, Carnegie mellon university (College of Arts and Sci-
ences and department of Social and decision Sciences), and Lawrence
Erlbaum and Associates. We gratefully acknowledge their support.
ii
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1
a Psychologist Between logos and ethos
Joachim I. Krueger
Brown University
At the 17th Annual Convention of the Association for Psychological
Science, Los Angeles, may 29, 2005, Robyn mason dawes was honored
with a Festschrift conference. Following a convivial banquet on the eve
of the Festschrift symposium, several of Robyn’s friends and colleagues
presented papers on recent research that was, in one way or another,
indebted to his intellectual inspiration over the years. This volume is
composed of chapter-length reports of most of these research enter-
prises as well as some chapters authored by individuals who did not
speak at the symposium. With characteristic modesty, Robyn requested
that the contributors present their finest work and refrain from empha-
sizing his contributions to these efforts. It falls on this introductory
chapter to provide the overarching context for these lines of research
and a sense of Robyn’s abiding influence.
It is fitting to begin with a biographical note. Robyn entered the
graduate program in clinical psychology at the university of michi-
gan in 1958. his stint in that program included some experiences that
shaped his outlook on psychological science for years to come. Robyn
noticed that clinical psychology was caught between the two frames of
being seen as an art and a science. In his view, the latter was neglected.
he found that scientific advances showing the limits of clinical diagno-
sis were being ignored. In one poignant instance, Robyn was asked to
administer a Rorschach test to a 16-year old girl who had been admit-
ted because of sexual relations with an older man, which had led to

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