Table Of ContentQuantitative Methods for
Current Environmental Issues
Springer
London
Berlin
Heidelberg
New York
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HongKong
Milan
Paris
Singapore
Tokyo
Clive W. Anderson, Vic Barnett, Philip C. Chatwin
and Abdel H. EI-Shaarawi (Eds)
Quantitative Methods
for Current
Environmental Issues
With104Figures
Springer
CliveW.Anderson,MA,MSc,PhD
SchoolofMathematicsandStatistics,UniversityofSheffield,TheHicksBuilding,
SheffieldS37RH,UK
VicBarnett,MSc,PhD,DSc,PIS
SchoolofMathematicalSciences,UniversityofNottingham,UniversityPark,
NottinghamNG72RD,UK
PhilipC.Chatwin,MA,PhD,PSS
SchoolofMathematicsandStatistics,UniversityofSheffield,TheHicksBuilding,
SheffieldS37RH,UK
AbdelH.EI-Shaarawi,PhD
NationalWaterResearchInstitute,867LakeshoreRoad,Burlington,
OntarioL7R4A6,Canada
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData
Quantitativemethodsforcurrentenvironmentalissues
1.Environmentalsciences- Statisticalmethods-Congresses
2.Environmentalmonitoring- Statisticalmethods-Congresses
I.Anderson,C.W.(CliveWilliam),1944-
333.7'015195
ISBN-13:978-1-4471-1171-9 e-ISBN-13:978-1-4471-0657-9
DOl:10.1007/978-1-4471-0657-9
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Quantitativemethodsforcurrentenvironmentalissues1CliveAnderson...[etal.I,eds.
p. em.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN-13:978-1-4471-1171-9(alk.paper)
1.Environmentalsciences-Statisticalmethods-Congresses. I.Anderson,C.W.
(CliveW.) II.TIES/SPRUCE2000(2000:UniversityofSheffield)
GE45.S73 Q36 2002
363.7'007'27-dc21 2001055021
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Preface
One result of the developing public interest in and concern about environ
mental issues in recent years has been an increased worldwide emphasis on
relevant research. During the 1990s, two organizations were established that
fostered this research, particularly its quantitative aspects. They were TIES
(TheInternational EnvironmetricsSociety) and SPRUCE (Statistics in Public
Resources, Utilities and in Care ofthe Environment). Amongst their varied
activities has been the holding of regular and successful conferences. It was
perhaps inevitable that the two organizations would one day hold a joint
conference, and the first ofthese - TIES/SPRUCE 2000 - took place at the
University ofSheffield, UK from 4 - 8 September 2000.
The conference was organized to incorporate the most successful practices
of previous meetings of both TIES and SPRUCE. It was considered specially
important to emphasize the essentially multidisciplinary nature of research
intoenvironmental issues. The best quantitative work in thefield requiresex
pertise both in the underlyingscience and in statistical and/or mathematical
methods. Such work is becoming more widespread as understanding deep
ens and new collaborations are formed, but it remains difficult. It is hoped
that conferences such as TIES/SPRUCE 2000 can help promote the necessary
awareness and communication of ideas fundamental to such work, and can
add something to the experience of participants which will place them in a
stronger position to emphasize the need for new combinations ofskills in the
training ofyoung research scientists.
The theme of TIES/SPRUCE 2000 was Quantitative Methods in Current En
vironmental Issues. Eleven distinguished scientists or engineers gave invited
plenary lectures. They were:
Julian Besag University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Steve Buckland University ofSt Andrews, UK
(J Stuart Hunter Lecturer)
Brad Carlin University ofMinnesota, USA
Joe Chang George Mason University, Virginia, USA
Dave Higdon Duke University, North Carolina, USA
Gudmund Host Norwegian Computing Centre, Oslo, Norway
Jim McQuaid University ofSheffield, UK
Tony 0'Hagan University ofSheffield, UK
Paul Sampson University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Hans Wackernagel Ecole des Mines de Paris, Fontainebleau, France
Lucy Wyatt University ofSheffield, UK
vi Preface
This book contains articles based on nine of these presentations, together
with three others based on peer-reviewed contributed papers (ofwhich there
were more than 70). The articles are grouped around the themes of
Spatial and Temporal Models and Methods,
Environmental Sampling and Standards,
Atmosphere and Ocean, and
Risk and Uncertainty.
The success ofTIES/SPRUCE 2000 owed much to the enthusiasm and hard
work of the Organizing Committee. The Co-Chairs (Clive Anderson and
Philip Chatwin) wish to record their thanks to Nils Mole, above all, and also
to Paul Blackwell, Nirvana Bloor, Nancy Doss, Marianna Keray, Richard
Martin, Maged Messeh, Rick Munro, Ruth Parker and Robertus von Fay
Siebenburgen.
The present volume contains a selection of the most important work now
being undertaken on quantitative aspects of environmental issues. We hope
it will prove interesting and valuable.
Clive Anderson
Vic Barnett
Philip Chatwin
Abdel EI-Shaarawi
Sheffield
Nottingham
Burlington
Contents
Part I. Spatial and Temporal Models and Methods
1 Modeling Spatio-Temporally Misaligned Areal and
Point Process Environmental Data 3
Bradley P. Carlin, Andrew S. Mugglin, Li Zhu, and Alan E. Gelfand
1.1 Introduction............................................ 4
1.2 Misaligned Areal Data Model Development ................. 5
1.3 Example: Radon Exposure near an Ohio Contamination Source 11
1.4 Misaligned Point-Block Data Model Development 18
1.5 Example: Ozone Exposure by Zip Code in Atlanta. .......... 24
1.6 Summary and Discussion. ................................ 30
References 31
2 Space and Space-Time Modeling using Process
Convolutions 37
Dave Higdon
2.1 Introduction............................................ 37
2.2 Constructing Spatial Models via Moving Averages. .......... 38
2.3 Basic Spatial Model 42
2.4 A Multiresolution Model .............................. 45
2.5 Building Space-Time Models. ............................. 48
2.6 Discussion.............................................. 52
Appendix. ................................ ... ............... 52
References 54
3 Multivariate Kriging for Interpolating with Data from
Different Sources. .. ......................... ............ ..... 57
H. Wackernagel, L. Bertino, J. P. Sierra, and J. Gonzalez del Rio
3.1 Introduction............................................ 57
3.2 Data from Different Sources. ............................. 58
3.3 Simple and Ordinary Cokriging ........................... 59
3.4 Cokriging with External Drifts. ........................... 60
3.5 Cokriging Neighborhood 61
3.6 Ebro Case Study ........................................ 64
References 74
viii Contents
Part II. Environmental Sampling and Standards
4 Distance Sampling: Recent Advances and Future
Directions .................................................... 79
S. T. Buckland, L. Thomas, F. F. C. Marques, S. Strindberg,
S. L. Hedley, J. H. Pollard, D. L. Borchers, and M. L. Burt
4.1 Introduction............................................ 79
4.2 Standard Distance Sampling Methods. ..................... 81
4.3 Covariate Models for the Detection Function. ............... 83
4.4 Double-Platform Methods. ............................... 85
4.5 Spatial Distance Sampling Models. ........................ 87
4.6 Indirect Distance Sampling Surveys. ....................... 88
4.7 Automated Design Algorithms. ........................... 89
4.8 Adaptive Distance Sampling. ............................. 91
4.9 The Software DISTANCE. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 94
4.10 State-Space Models for Trend. ............................ 94
4.11 Discussion.............................................. 95
References ........................................ 96
5 Setting Environmental Standards: A Statistical Approach. 99
Vic Barnett and Marion Bown
5.1 Background............................................ 99
5.2 Setting a Statistically Verifiable Ideal Standard 102
5.3 A Best Linear Unbiased Quantile Estimator 103
5.4 Example: Copper Levels in River Water 106
5.5 Conclusion............................................. 107
References 108
Part III. Atmosphere and Ocean
6 The Interpretation and Validation ofMeasurements
ofthe Ocean Wave Directional Spectrum ..................... 113
Lucy R. Wyatt
6.1 Introduction 113
6.2 The Statistical Description ofthe Sea Surface 114
6.3 Measurement Techniques 115
6.4 Validation/Intercomparison Issues 117
6.5 Methods Used and their Application 118
6.6 Concluding Remarks 125
References 127
Contents ix
7 Thermal Energy Emission and Propagation from
Accidents 129
A. Pelliccioni, F. Altavilla, and S. Berardi
7.1 Introduction 129
7.2 Heat Transfer Theory 131
7.3 Global Radiative Model Architecture and Application 136
7.4 Comments on Model Results 140
7.5 Conclusions 144
References 145
8 Development and Application ofan Extended
Methodology to Validate Short-Range Atmospheric
Dispersion Models 147
Harry Eleveld and Harry Slaper
8.1 Introduction 147
8.2 Model Validation Tool 148
8.3 Descriptions ofDispersion Models TADMOD and TSTEP 151
8.4 Results and Discussion 152
8.5 Conclusions 160
Appendices 161
References 164
9 Uncertainty and Sensitivity ofDispersion Model Results
to Meteorological Inputs: Two Case Studies 167
Joseph C. Chang
9.1 Introduction 168
9.2 Model Evaluation and Sensitivity Study with Dipole Pride 26 . 170
9.3 Persian Gulf War Exposure Study 187
9.4 Conclusions 197
References 199
Part IV. Risk and Uncertainty
10 Statistics and the Environmental Sciences:
Approaches to Model Combination 207
Gudmund H{list
10.1 Introduction 207
10.2 Statistical Framework 208
10.3 Examples 212
10.4 Discussion 224
References .... .............................................. 225
x Contents
11 Bayesian Analysis of Computer Code Outputs 227
Marc C. Kennedy, Anthony O'Hagan, and Neil Higgins
11.1 Analysis of Computer Code Outputs 227
11.2 Bayesian Methods 231
11.3 Windscale Nuclear Accident 234
11.4 Discussion 241
References ........................................ 242
12 The Realities ofDecision Making on Risks ............... 245
Jim McQuaid
12.1 Introduction 245
12.2 Decision Making on Health and Safety 246
12.3 Changing Nature of Risk Debates 248
12.4 Changing Influence ofScience 251
12.5 Public Responses to Risk Issues 252
12.6 Features of the Public Debate on Risk Decision Making 253
12.7 Risk-Based Approach to Regulation 256
12.8 Risk Assessment 258
12.9 Strengths and Limitations ofRisk Assessment 259
12.10 Concluding Remarks 261
References 261
Index 265
