Quantitative Ecotoxicology, Second Edition

578 Pages·2012·19.7 MB·English

by  Michael C. Newman

QUANTITATIVE
ECOTOXICOLOGY
Second Edition

QUANTITATIVE
ECOTOXICOLOGY
Second Edition
Michael C. Newman
Boca Raton London New York
CRC Press is an imprint of the
Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
MATLAB® and Simulink® are trademarks of The MathWorks, Inc. and are used with permission. The MathWorks does not warrant the
accuracy of the text or exercises in this book. This book’s use or discussion of MATLAB® and Simulink® software or related products does
not constitute endorsement or sponsorship by The MathWorks of a particular pedagogical approach or particular use of the MATLAB®
and Simulink® software.
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300
Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
© 2013 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business
No claim to original U.S. Government works
Version Date: 20120615
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4398-3565-4 (eBook - PDF)
This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reli-
able data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences
of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication
and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been
acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint.
Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by
any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or
in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers.
For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright.com (http://www.copyright.
com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-
profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy
license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged.
Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and
explanation without intent to infringe.
Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at
http://www.taylorandfrancis.com
and the CRC Press Web site at
http://www.crcpress.com
To Peg, Ben, and Ian
… what we hope ever to do with ease we may learn first to do with diligence.
—Samuel Johnson (from Green 1984*)
* Greene, D., ed., Samuel Johnson, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1984.

Contents
Preface..............................................................................................................................................xv
Acknowledgments ...........................................................................................................................xix
About the Author ............................................................................................................................xxi
Chapter 1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Ecotoxicology as a Scientific Discipline .................................................................................1
1.2 Toxicants and Biosphere .........................................................................................................2
1.3 Toxicant Effects in Ecosystems ..............................................................................................3
1.3.1 Classification Based on the Stress Concept ...............................................................3
1.3.1.1 Stress ..........................................................................................................3
1.3.1.2 Nonstress Effects ........................................................................................7
1.3.1.3 Summary ....................................................................................................8
1.3.2 Classification of Effects Based on Other Criteria ......................................................8
1.3.2.1 Temporal Context .......................................................................................9
1.3.2.2 Lethality .....................................................................................................9
1.3.2.3 Site of Action ..............................................................................................9
1.3.3 Summary of Toxicant Effects ....................................................................................9
1.4 Toxicant Fate in Ecosystems .................................................................................................11
1.4.1 Fate in Biotic Components .......................................................................................12
1.4.2 Fate in Abiotic Components ....................................................................................12
1.5 Organization of Knowledge Based on Explanatory Principles.............................................12
1.5.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................13
1.5.2 The Structure of Scientific Knowledge ....................................................................13
1.5.2.1 Historical Perspective ...............................................................................13
1.5.2.2 Strong Inference .......................................................................................15
1.5.2.3 Selection of Hypotheses ...........................................................................15
1.6 Bayesian Inference ................................................................................................................16
1.7 Toward Strongest Possible Inference and Clear Ecological Relevance ................................21
References ........................................................................................................................................22
Chapter 2
The Measurement Process ...............................................................................................................27
2.1 General ..................................................................................................................................27
2.1.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................27
2.1.2 The Necessity of Controlled Measurement .............................................................28
2.2 Regions of Quantitation ........................................................................................................28
2.2.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................28
2.2.2 Data Sets with Below Detection Limit Observations ..............................................30
2.2.2.1 Definitions ................................................................................................30
2.2.2.2 Reporting ..................................................................................................30
2.2.2.3 Estimating Mean and Standard Deviation for Censored Data .................31
2.2.2.4 Hypothesis Testing with Censored Data ..................................................39
2.2.2.5 Summary ..................................................................................................46
2.3 Blank Correction ...................................................................................................................46
2.3.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................46
vii
viii Contents
2.3.2 Estimating the Effects of the Blank on the Measurement Process ..........................46
2.3.3 Blank Control Charts ...............................................................................................47
2.4 Accuracy and Precision .........................................................................................................49
2.4.1 Accuracy ..................................................................................................................49
2.4.1.1 Overview ..................................................................................................49
2.4.1.2 Estimation of Accuracy ............................................................................49
2.4.2 Precision ...................................................................................................................50
2.4.2.1 Overview ..................................................................................................50
2.4.2.2 Estimation of Precision ............................................................................51
2.4.3 Control Charts ..........................................................................................................51
2.4.3.1 Overview ..................................................................................................51
2.4.3.2 Accuracy ...................................................................................................52
2.4.3.3 Precision ...................................................................................................56
2.5 Variance Structure ................................................................................................................59
2.6 Sample Size ...........................................................................................................................61
2.6.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................61
2.6.2 Number of Individuals to Sample ............................................................................61
2.6.2.1 Overview ..................................................................................................61
2.6.2.2 Minimum Number of Individuals if Analytical Error Is Negligible........62
2.6.2.3 Minimum Number of Replicate Analyses ...............................................63
2.6.2.4 Sample and Replicate Numbers under Other Variance Structures ..........64
2.6.3 Weight (or Volume) of Sample .................................................................................64
2.6.3.1 Overview ..................................................................................................64
2.6.3.2 Increment Weight (or Volume) for Well-Mixed Materials .......................66
2.6.3.3 Increment Weight (or Volume) for Poorly Mixed Materials ....................67
2.7 Outliers ..................................................................................................................................68
2.7.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................68
2.7.2 Single Suspect Observation .....................................................................................69
2.7.3 Several Suspect Observations ..................................................................................70
2.8 Summary ...............................................................................................................................72
References ........................................................................................................................................73
Chapter 3
Bioaccumulation ..............................................................................................................................77
3.1 General ..................................................................................................................................77
3.2 Modeling Bioaccumulation: General Approach ...................................................................77
3.2.1 Elimination ..............................................................................................................78
3.2.1.1 General .....................................................................................................78
3.2.1.2 Reaction Order .........................................................................................79
3.2.1.3 Linear Elimination Model ........................................................................79
3.2.1.4 Single (Mono-) Exponential Elimination Model .....................................82
3.2.1.5 Elimination Model with Two Loss Terms for One Compartment ...........84
3.2.1.6 Elimination Model with Two Loss Terms for Two
Subcompartments (Biexponential) ...........................................................89
3.2.1.7 Power Elimination Model ........................................................................93
3.2.1.8 Michaelis–Menten Elimination Model ....................................................94
3.2.1.9 Comment on Interpreting Two Compartment Kinetics ...........................96
3.2.2 Adsorption................................................................................................................98
3.2.2.1 General .....................................................................................................98
Contents ix
3.2.2.2 Common Forms of Freundlich and Langmuir Equations ........................99
3.2.2.3 Other Useful Adsorption Equations .......................................................102
3.2.3 Accumulation Models: One Compartment ............................................................103
3.2.3.1 General ...................................................................................................103
3.2.3.2 Compartment Models .............................................................................104
3.2.4 Accumulation Models: Several Compartments or Sources ...................................113
3.2.4.1 General ...................................................................................................113
3.2.4.2 One Compartment with Uptake from Food and Water ..........................113
3.2.4.3 Multiple Sources and Elimination Components ....................................114
3.2.4.4 Complex Multiple Compartment Models ...............................................114
3.2.5 Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models ...................................................115
3.2.5.1 General ...................................................................................................115
3.2.5.2 Uptake from Water .................................................................................116
3.2.5.3 Uptake from Food ..................................................................................117
3.2.5.4 Growth and Allometric Considerations .................................................118
3.2.6 Fugacity-Based Models ..........................................................................................118
3.3 Modeling Bioaccumulation: Alternative Approaches .........................................................119
3.3.1 Statistical Moments Approach ...............................................................................119
3.3.2 Stochastic Models ..................................................................................................125
3.4 Intrinsic Factors Affecting Bioaccumulation ......................................................................126
3.4.1 General ...................................................................................................................126
3.4.2 Lipid Content .........................................................................................................126
3.4.3 Size .........................................................................................................................127
3.5 Summary .............................................................................................................................132
References ......................................................................................................................................133
Chapter 4
Lethal and Other Quantal Responses to Stress..............................................................................139
4.1 General ................................................................................................................................139
4.2 Dose-Response at a Set Endpoint .......................................................................................140
4.2.1 General ...................................................................................................................140
4.2.2 Metameters of Dose and Response ........................................................................140
4.2.3 The LC50/LD50 .....................................................................................................143
4.2.3.1 Litchfield–Wilcoxon Method ..................................................................144
4.2.3.2 Maximum Likelihood Method (Normal, Logistic, and
Weibull Models) .....................................................................................146
4.2.3.3 Trimmed Spearman–Karber Method .....................................................149
4.2.3.4 Binomial Method ...................................................................................154
4.2.3.5 Moving Average Method ........................................................................154
4.2.3.6 Up-and-Down (Sensitivity) Method .......................................................155
4.2.3.7 Coping with Control Mortalities ............................................................158
4.2.3.8 Duplicate Treatments .............................................................................160
4.2.3.9 Summary of LC50 Methods ...................................................................163
4.2.3.10 Incipient LC50 ........................................................................................163
4.2.3.11 The Significance of the LC50 ................................................................164
4.3 Time to Death .....................................................................................................................168
4.3.1 The Standard Approach .........................................................................................168
4.3.1.1 General ...................................................................................................168
4.3.1.2 Litchfield Method for Estimating LT50 .................................................169
x Contents
4.3.1.3 Lethal Threshold Concentration.............................................................171
4.3.2 The Survival Time Approach ................................................................................173
4.3.2.1 General ...................................................................................................173
4.3.2.2 Nonparametric Methods .........................................................................175
4.3.2.3 Parametric and Semiparametric Methods ..............................................177
4.4 Quantifying the Effects of Extrinsic Factors ......................................................................185
4.4.1 Overview ................................................................................................................185
4.4.2 Inorganic Toxicants ................................................................................................185
4.4.2.1 Ammonia ................................................................................................185
4.4.2.2 Metals .....................................................................................................187
4.4.2.3 Organic Toxicants...................................................................................192
4.5 Quantifying Effects of Intrinsic Factors .............................................................................195
4.5.1 Overview ................................................................................................................195
4.5.2 Acclimation ............................................................................................................195
4.5.3 Size .........................................................................................................................196
4.6 Toxicant Mixtures ...............................................................................................................200
4.6.1 Methods Based on Additivity ................................................................................200
4.6.2 Methods Based on Mode of Action .......................................................................203
4.6.3 Graphical Depictions Using Isobolograms ............................................................205
4.7 Summary .............................................................................................................................206
References ......................................................................................................................................207
Chapter 5
Statistical Tests for Detection of Chronic Lethal and Sublethal Stress .........................................217
5.1 General ................................................................................................................................217
5.2 Method Selection ................................................................................................................217
5.2.1 The U.S. EPA Scheme ...........................................................................................217
5.2.2 The OECD Scheme ................................................................................................218
5.3 One-Way Analysis of Variance ...........................................................................................220
5.3.1 General Design ......................................................................................................220
5.3.2 Assumption of Independence .................................................................................220
5.3.3 Other Assumptions ................................................................................................221
5.4 Test of Normality: Shapiro–Wilk’s Test ..............................................................................228
5.5 Test for Homogeneity of Variances: Bartlett’s Test.............................................................230
5.6 Treatment Means Compared to the Control Mean .............................................................232
5.6.1 Dunnett’s Test ........................................................................................................232
5.6.1.1 Equal Number of Observations ..............................................................232
5.6.1.2 Unequal Number of Observations ..........................................................234
5.6.2 t-Test with Bonferroni’s Adjustment ......................................................................235
5.6.3 Dunn–Šidák t-Test ..................................................................................................236
5.7 Monotonic Trend: Williams’s Test ......................................................................................237
5.8 Steel’s Multiple Treatment-Control Rank Sum Test ...........................................................242
5.9 Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test with Bonferroni’s Adjustment ...................................................245
5.10 A Second Look at Statistical Testing ..................................................................................247
5.10.1 General ...................................................................................................................247
5.10.2 Deference to Power, Effect Size, and Balanced Error Rates .................................254
5.10.3 Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) ...............256
5.10.4 The Virtues of Confidence Intervals ......................................................................260
5.11 Inferring Biological Significance from Statistical Significance .........................................263