Table Of ContentQuantitative Conservation of Vertebrates
Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates. Michael J. Conroy, John P. Carroll
© 2009 Michael J. Conroy and John P. Carroll. ISBN: 978-1-405-19098-5
Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page i — #1
Anelectroniccompaniontothebookisavailableintwoformats:hypertextonCD,and
awebpagemaintainedattheUniversityofGeorgia,accessiblethrough
www.blackwellpublishing.com/conroy
Seep.xforfurtherdetails.
Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page ii — #2
Quantitative Conservation
of Vertebrates
MichaelJ.ConroyandJohnP.Carroll
University of Georgia
Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page iii — #3
Thiseditionfirstpublished2009
©2009byMichaelJ.ConroyandJohnP.Carroll
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Conroy,MichaelJ.(MichaelJames),1952-
Quantitativeconservationofvertebrates/MichaelJ.ConroyandJohnP.Carroll.
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Includesbibliographicalreferences.
ISBN:978-1-4051-9098-5(hardback:alk.paper)
ISBN:978-1-4051-8228-7(paperback:alk.paper)
1.Vertebratepopulations–Mathematicalmodels.2.Conservationbiology–Mathematicalmodels.I.Carroll,
JohnP.II.Title.
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Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page iv — #4
Contents
Preface vii
Acknowledgements ix
CompanionwebsiteandCD-ROM x
1 Introduction:theroleofscienceinconservation 1
Part I Basicconceptsinscientificinvestigationsforconservation 7
2 Usingmodelsinconservationbiology 9
3 Modelsofpopulationdynamics 15
4 Applyingpopulationmodelstoconservation 32
5 Basicsofstudydesignandanalysis 47
Part II Conservationstudiesandmonitoringprograms 71
6 Generalprinciplesofestimation 73
7 Occupancy(presence–absence)analysis 81
8 Samplecountsforabundanceestimation 101
9 Distancesamplingforestimatingdensityandabundance 115
10 Capture–mark–recapturestudiesforestimatingabundanceanddensity 135
11 Estimationofsurvivalfromradiotelemetry,nestingsuccessstudies,and
agedistributions 160
12 Mark–recaptureforestimatingsurvival,recruitment,abundance,and
movementrates 189
13 Analysisofhabitat 219
14 Estimationofspeciesrichnessandothercommunityparameters 230
Part III Integratingmodelingandmonitoringforconservation 251
15 Elementsofconservationdecisionmaking 253
16 Accountingforuncertaintyinconservationdecisions 265
17 Learningandadaptivemanagement 274
18 Casestudy:decisionmodelingandadaptivemanagementfordeclining
grasslandbirdsinthesoutheasternUSA 289
19 Summaryandrecommendations 303
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vi Contents
Literaturecited 307
Glossary 314
AppendixA:Statisticalandmodelingprogramsavailableontheworldwideweb 324
AppendixB:Otherinternetresources 326
AppendixC:Modelingandstatisticalnotation 328
AppendixD:Keytoabundanceandparameterestimation 331
Index 337
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Preface
This book is intended for use by field biologists and others, including future field
biologists who might be in a university course, engaged in the day-to-day study and
conservation of vertebrate animals. Our goal is that conservation biologists use this
bookasa(withapologiestoourcolleagueEvanCooch)“gentleintroduction”tothefield
ofquantitativeecology.Wehopetoconvincereadersthatthemethodsandapproaches
withinarenot thedomainofmathematicians,statisticians,andcomputerprogramers,
butinfactareessentialtoolstodoingthejobofconservationinthetwenty-firstcentury.
We intend this book to be used. Read it, mark it up, and take it into the field.
Consult it before collecting field data, to motivate and design your monitoring and
researchprograms(PartI),andafterwardstoproperlyanalyzeandinterpretthedata
that (hopefully) have now been properly gathered (Part II). Especially in Part II we
hopethatthisintroductiongivesfieldbiologiststhebasictoolsandconfidencetotackle
thespecializedbookscoveringmanyofthefieldtechniquesthatweciteinthisbook.
We draw particular attention to Part III of the book, which deals with structured
decision making and adaptive management. We would actually encourage readers to
skipaheadtothissectionandgettogripswiththeessentialideasofapplyingmodels
toconservationdecisions.ThenreturntoPartsIandIIforthedetailsofhowtobuild
modelsandcollectandanalyzefielddata.Thiswillhelpkeepthefocuswherewewant
it–onthepracticalapplicationofthesemethodstosolvingrealconservationproblems.
Asnotedonpageii,wehaveprovidedawebsiteforthebookandanaccompanying
CD. The website will be updated (and corrected) periodically as new developments
occurandas(inevitably)mistakesarefound.TheCDcontainsallthematerialonthe
websitebutcannot,ofcourse,bekeptuptodateaseasilyasthewebsite.Bothprovide
readyaccesstoalltheworkedexamplesintheboxesinthebook,withmuchmoredetail
thanallowedforintheprintedbook.Tothatend,wehaveprovidedlinkstosoftware
andotherresources,mostofitfreelyavailableontheinternet.ThewebsiteandCDare
essentialresourcesforthebook,sowestronglyencouragereaderstousethemtorepeat
forthemselvestheanalysesperformedinthebook,andasatemplateforperforming
analysesoftheirowndata.
Finally, this book is not intended as a substitute for other, more comprehensive
books, notably Williams et al. (2002). To keep this book to a reasonable length, and
inordertoremainaccessibletoalessmathematicallyorientedaudience,wechosenot
tocoverallthemethodsavailable,andhavenotprovidedthesortofdepththatmore
advancedreferencessuchasWilliamsetal.(2002)provide.So,forexample,wehaveonly
brieflydescribedsuchimportantapproachesasthePradeltemporalsymmetrymodel,
Barker/Burnhamjointrecapture–recovermodels,andmulti-statemodels(Chapter12),
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viii Preface
buthaveinsteadprovidedacontextinwhichreadersmightassesswhetherthesemodels
could be useful in their applications, and have pointed the reader to the appropriate
in-depthbackgroundandrelevantsoftware.Likewise,wehavegivenonlya“barebones”
treatmentoftheRobustDesign(Chapter12),butwehaveprovidedanexamplethat
should give readers a good idea of just how powerful an approach this is. We have,
rather,emphasizedpracticalapplicationsandexamples–whichiswhyweagainexhort
readerstousetheCDandwebsitetofulladvantage.
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Acknowledgements
Thisbookwasmadepossiblebythesupportandhelpofmanypeople.M.J.C.thanksLiz,
Mary,andLauraforputtingupwithanotherbookproject;hiscurrentandpastgraduate
studentsforkeepinghimrelativelyhonest;andcolleaguesandoccasionalpartnersin
crime including Richard Barker, Bob Cooper, Chris Fonnesbeck, Clint Moore, Jim
Nichols,BillPalmer,JimPeterson,JonRunge,JuanCarlosSenar,JeffThompson,Ken
Williams,andofcoursehiscoauthorJohnCarroll,tonameafew.J.P.C.thanksEileen,
Caitlin, and Sean for their patience and understanding especially during periods of
frustrationandchaos.Also,tohispartnerinthisventure,MikeConroy,whoprovided
lots of interesting times during our tenure teaching Applied Population Dynamics
together and then the Galliformes Shortcourse. J.P.C. particularly thanks the ‘UGA
GamebirdPosse,’especiallyBrantFaircloth,TheronTerhune,andJeffThompson.We
allupgradedourquantitativeskillstogether,althoughJ.P.C.nowlagswellbehindthe
rest.Itwas5or6yearsofAPDstudentswhoputtheauthorsonthecourseforwriting
thisbookandtheydeserveourthanks.Asastudentoncewroteinacourseevaluation,
‘Dr.ConroyneedstolearnhowtodumbdownandDr.CarrollneedstogetonRitalin.’
Thisprettymuchsumsupourworkingrelationship.Cheers!
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Companion website and CD-ROM
We have provided an electronic companion to the book in two formats: hyper-
text on CD, and a webpage maintained at the University of Georgia available via
www.blackwellpublishing.com/conroy
The companion contains the details of all the Box examples in the book, includ-
ingdatainputandprogramoutputwherespecialtyprograms(suchasMARKor
DISTANCE) are used, or in many simpler cases, spreadsheets in Microsoft Excel
format.
Allsoftware(exceptMicrosoftandotherstandardproprietaryproducts)referenced
hereincanbeobtained,usuallyfreeofcharge,viatheinternet.
Wehaveprovidedlinkstotheseprograms,aswellastoothermodelingandstatis-
ticalsoftwarethat,whilenotdirectlyreferenced,maybeusefultoreaders.Readers
shouldalwaysobtainthemostup-to-dateversionsoftheseprograms.
Finally, we have provided links to advanced undergraduate and graduate courses
thatweandcolleagueshavetaughtattheUniversityofGeorgia,aswellastoshort
coursesandworkshopsontopicscoveredinthebook.
Weencouragereaderstoperiodicallyconsultthewebpageandcheckforupdatesto
thismaterial,aswellastoreporttousanyerrorsthattheymayfind.
Wetrustthatreaderswillfindthismaterialuseful,andsuggestthatitismainlyby
applyingtheconceptsinthebooktorealexamplesthatreaderswillmostbenefit
fromthismaterial.
Conroy Editedby:JulieMusk: “fm” — 2008/10/7 — 15:12 — page x — #10
