Public Policy Analysis

524 Pages·44.55 MB·English

by  Dunn W.

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS
An Introduction
Third Edition
William N. Dunn
Graduate School ofP ublic and International A.ffa irs
University ofP ittsburgh
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Dunn. \\tlliam N.
Public policy analysis: an introductionJ\\i
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PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITION
This edition of Public Policy Analysis, like its two predecessors, is intended both as
a textbook and as an extended critical essay on the field of public policy analysis.
The primary audience for the book is upper-division undergraduate and graduate
students completing their first course in multidisciplinary policy analysis. Because
the book addresses concerns of several social science disciplines and social profes
sions, it provides case materials and examples in policy arenas including:
energy and environment economic and social development
foreign affairs urban affairs
public health transportation and safety
criminal justice employment and labor
social welfare education
science and technology communications
This book takes a pragmatic, critical, and multidisciplinary approach. One of
my beliefs is that the theory and practice of policy analysis must be distinguished
from that of the disciplines in which policy analysis originates. Although policy
analysis builds on political science, economics, and other social science disciplines
and social professions, it also seeks to transform them into a new multidisciplinary
whole. In this context, I define policy analysis as a process of multidisciplinary in
quiry that creates, critically assesses, and communicates information that is useful
for understanding and improving policies.
This book recognizes that many of the concepts and methods of this multidis
ciplinary field are likely to be unfamiliar. For this reason special instructional de
vices and learning strategies are employed throughout the book:
• Advance organizers. The book uses advance organizers, especially visual
displays, to introduce students to the logical structure of methods and tech
niques covered later. The advance organizer for the book as a whole is the
information-processing model of policy inquiry presented in the first chapter
and throughout the book. This and other advance organizers help students
grasp complex relations and critically examine the assumptions that underlie
theories, methods, and techniques.
• Learning objectives. The objectives that students should attain by reading
each chapter and completing related assignments are listed at the end of that
chapter. I have tried to state these objectives in terms of the acquisition of
knowledge and skills to do or perform something. For example, learning ob
jectives refer to the acquisition of knowledge and skills needed to recognize,
xiii
Preface to the Third Edition
xiv
define, understand, compare, contrast, explain, predict, estimate, evaluate,
synthesize, diagnose, plan, and apply. By stating objectives in this way the
emphasis is on active rather than passive learning, on application rather than
regurgitation.
• Key terms and concepts. It is important to build a multidisciplinary vocabu
lary of policy analysis. Key terms and concepts of policy analysis are defined
when first introduced in the text and listed at the end of each chapter.
• Review Questions. Knowledge and skills in policy analysis must be reinforced.
For this reason, review questions are provided at the end of each chapter. The
review questions address two kinds of skills: so-called higher-order skills in
conceptualizing, interpreting, explaining, synthesizing, evaluating, and apply
ing; and lower-order technical skills in calculating, estimating, and computing.
Review questions may be used by students for self-study and by instructors who
are developing written assignments, examinations, and tests.
• Demonstration F.xercises. Knowledge and skills do not stick unless there are
frequent opportunities to apply them to real-world problems. For this reason,
each chapter contains cases that supply a basis for demonstrating the applica
tion of different kinds of knowledge and skills. By completing demonstration
exercises students are drawn away from idealized notions of "perfect" analysis
("blackboard policy analysis") and empowered by analyzing real-life problems.
• Reference. In addition to literature cited in footnotes, each chapter is accom
panied by suggested readings keyed to the issues addressed in the chapter. In
this edition, I have attempted to include literature that is representative of
many of the most recent developments in public policy analysis.
• Guidelines for written and oral communication. Students who master meth
ods and techniques of policy analysis often experience difficulties when they
must not only obtain proper analytic and quantitative solutions, but also com
municate conclusions and recommendations in the form of policy memo
randa, policy issue papers, and oral briefings. To overcome these difficulties,
appendices present step-by-step guidelines on how to prepare policy issue
papers (Appendix 1), executive summaries (Appendix 2), policy memoranda
(Appendix 3), and oral briefings (Appendix 4). In addition, a new chapter (9)
examines the process of policy communication and offers strategies for im-
proving it.
• Tbe political context ofp olicy analysis. Two newly written chapters address
the process of policy analysis (Chapter 1) and its role in the policymaking
process (Chapter 2). Policy analysis is treated as a systematic intellectual ac
tivity embedded in a political process. The emphasis in these chapters is on
political factors that facilitate and constrain the use of policy analysis in real
life settings.
• Policy argumentation, public discourse, and critical thinking. A newly de
veloped chapter on policy argumentation (Chapter 8) shows how analysts
can translate even the most specialized technical analyses into policy argu-
Preface to the Third Editon xv
ments, thus contributing to processes of public discourse and policy debate.
The chapter also elaborates the many forms of reasoning-political, eco
nomic, ethical, legal-that are used in policy debates. Finally, by systemati
cally examining policy arguments, students engage in a process of critical
thinking whereby the assumptions underlying many forms of policy argu
mentation are raised to a level of explicit consciousness.
In the past twenty and more years this book has been used and evaluated in
regular degree programs in social science departments and in professional schools
of public policy and public administration in this country and abroad. The book
has also been used and evaluated in training programs and projects in government
agencies. The extensive revisions incorporated in this third edition reflect much of
what I have learned from these evaluations, from my own teaching and training
experiences, and from doing policy analyses and other applied research projects
for agencies at the local, state, national, and international levels.
By now there are so many students and faculty colleagues whose reactions
have improved this book that a full list is too long to present here. I will say only
that students in the MPA Program in Public Management and Policy and the Ph.D.
Program in Public Policy Research and Analysis, both in the University of Pitts
burgh's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, have provided insights,
criticisms, and suggestions which have improved this book. In addition, colleagues
in Pittsburgh and elsewhere have offered helpful advice on various parts of the
book, directly and through discussions of my published journal articles and papers.
I wish to acknowledge those who reviewed this and previous editions when
they were being prepared. These include David Nice of Washington State Univer
sity, David Houston of the University of Tennessee at Knoxville, and Louise Com
fort of the University of Pittsburgh. Sheila Kelly, Lien Rung-Kao, Sujatha Raman,
and Eric Sevigny assisted in preparing materials for this and previous editions. I am
grateful to Kate Freed for editorial and technical assistance and to John Shannon
for guiding the book through the production process. ·
William N. Dunn
Graduate School of Public
and International A.ffa irs
University of Pittsburgh
CONTENTS
...
Prefa ce to the Third Edition
xiii
1 TIIE PROCESS OF POLICY ANALYSIS
1
The Process of Policy Inquiry 2
Multidisciplinary Policy Analysis
3
Policy-Relevant Information
3
Policy-Informational Transformations
5
Policy-Analytic Methods
6
Three Cases of Policy Analysis
8
Forms of Policy Analysis
10
Retrospective and Prospective Analysis
10
Descriptive and Normative Analysis 14
Problem Finding and Problem Solving 14
Segmented and Integrative Analysis 15
The Practice of Policy Analysis 16
Reconstructed Logic versus Logic-in-Use 16
Methodological Opportunity Costs 17
Critical Thinking and Public Policy 19
The Structure of Policy Arguments
20
Dynamics of Argumentation, Public Discourse,
and Debate
22
Chapter Summary
23
Learning Objectives
23
Key Terms and Concepts 23
Review Questions 24
Demonstration Exercise 24
References
25
Case 1. Multidisciplinary Policy Analysis-
Benefits, Costs, and Consequences ofH ighway Safety 25
2 POLICY ANALYSIS IN TIIE POLICY-MAKING
PROCESS
33
Some Historical Background 34
Early Origins
34
v
Contents
vi
The Nineteenth-Century Transformation 37
The Twentieth Century- And Beyond 39
The Policy-Making Process 43
44
Models of Policy Change
47
Comprehensive Economic Rationality
48
Second-Best Rationality
Disjointed lncrementalism 50
51
Bounded Rationality
52
Mixed Scanning
53
Erotetic Rationality
Critical Convergence 53
54
Punctuated Equilibrium
Policy Analysis in the Policy Process 55
55
Potential Uses of Analysis
58
Uses of Analysis in Practice
61
Chapter Summary
61
Learning Objectives
61
Key Terms and Concepts
62
Review Questions
62
Demonstration Exercise
64
References
Case 2. Are Policy Analysts Technocrats? 64
71
3 STRUCTURING POLICY PROBLEMS
72
Nature of Policy Problems
72
Beyond Problem Solving
75
Characteristics of Problems
77
Problems verses Issues
79
Three Classes of Policy Problems
Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis 81
Creativity in Problem Structuring 82
Phases of Problem Structuring 82
85
Errors of the Third Type (Em)
86
Types of Policy Models
87
Descriptive Models
88
Normative Models
88
Verbal Models
Contents vii
Symbolic Models 89
Procedural Models 91
Models as Surrogates and Perspectives 91
Methods of Problem Structuring 96
Boundary Analysis 96
Classificational Analysis 99
Hierarchy Analysis 103
Synectics 106
Brainstorming 108
Multiple Perspective Analysis 110
Assumptional Analysis 112
Argumentation Mapping 115
Chapter Summary 117
Learning Objectives 117
Key Terms and Concepts 117
Review Questions 118
Demonstration Exercise 119
References 120
Case 3. Problem Structuring in Mine Safety and Health,
Traffic Safety, and job Training 122
4 FORECASTING EXPECTED POIJCY OUTCOMES 129
Forecasting in Policy Analysis 130
Aims of Forecasting 132
Limitations of Forecasting 132
Types of Futures 134
Goals and Objectives of Normative Futures 135
Sources of Goals, Objectives, and Alternatives 136
Approaches to Forecasting 137
Objects 138
Bases 138
Choosing Methods and Techniques 142
Extrapolative Forecasting 142
Classical Time-Series Analysis 143
Linear Trend Estimation 145
Nonlinear Time Series 150
Exponential Weighting 156
Contents
viii
157
Data Transformation
Catastrophe Methodology 159
162
Theoretical Forecasting
163
Theory Mapping
167
Theoretical Modeling
168
Causal Modeling
170
Regression Analysis
176
Point and Interval Estimation
178
Correlational Analysis
180
Judgmental Forecasting
181
The Delphi Technique
188
Cross-Impact Analysis
193
Feasibility Assessment
197
Chapter Summary
197
Learning Objectives
198
Key Terms and Concepts
198
Review Questions
198
Demonstration Exercise
200
References
Case 4. Political Consequences of Forecasting:
Environmental justice and Urban Mass
201
Rapid Transit
215
5 RECOMMENDING PREFERRED POLICIES
216
Recommendation in Policy Analysis
Recommendation and Multiple Advocasy 216
217
Simple Model of Choice
220
Complex Model of Choice
222
Forms of Rationality
Criteria for Policy Recommendation 223
230
Approaches to Recommendation
231
Public versus Private Choice
232
Supply and Demand
234
Public Choice
236
Cost-Benefit Analysis
237
Types of Costs and Benefits
240
Tasks in Cost-Benefit Analysis
244
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Contents ix
Methods and Techniques for Recommendation 247
Objectives Mapping 248
Value Clarification 248
Value Critique 250
Cost Element Structuring 251
Cost Estimation 253
Shadow Pricing 254
Constraint Mapping 256
Cost Internalization 257
Discounting 259
Sensitivity Analysis 263
A Fortiori Analysis 263
Plausibility Analysis 264
Chapter Summary 267
Learning Objectives 268
Key Terms and Concepts 268
Review Questions 268
Demonstration Exercise 270
271
References
Case 5. Saving Time, Lives, and Gasoline:
Benefits and Costs of the National Maximum
Speed Limit 271
6 MONITORING OBSERVED POLICY
276
OUTCOMES
Monitoring in Policy Analysis 277
Sources of Information 278
Types of Policy Outcomes 280
Types of Policy Actions 280
Definitions and Indicators 282
Approaches to Monitoring 284
Social Systems Accounting 287
Social Experimentation 291
Social Auditing 295
Research and Practice Synthesis 297
Techniques for Monitoring 302
Graphic Displays 302
The Gini Index 307