Table Of ContentPublic Opinion Polling in a Globalized World
(cid:129)
Marita Carballo Ulf Hjelmar
Editors
Public Opinion Polling
in a Globalized World
123
Dr.MaritaCarballo
Dr.UlfHjelmar
TNS
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London,W51UA
UnitedKingdom
[email protected]
[email protected]
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Preface
The book contains results from opinion polls around the world, in
total more than 50 countries. As the world becomes more integrated,
political and social challenges have become increasingly global,
pointing to a greater need for understanding between nations and for
finding global trends.
Understanding public opinion is integral to modern democracies
around the world. It shapes public policies; it helps politicians to
connect with their audiences; it reveals underlying issues that are of
utmost importance for decision-makers.
The initiative for this book has come from TNS Political and Social,
a world leader in providing political and social information. TNS
provides insights into public opinion, covers elections and analyzes
other political, social and economic issues, in more than 70 coun-
tries. Each year TNS conducts millions of interviews for clients to
understand how the public is thinking or reacting to major issues on
a national or international scale. This unique position on the interna-
tional market has enabled us to conceive and produce this book.
I hope this book will find a big audience. Public opinion polling is a
powerful tool in the world of today and we need a thorough discus-
sion of its role and its potential in politics and society at large. The
following chapters explore and develop this idea.
London, September 2007 Marita Carballo
Global Head of Sector,
TNS Political & Social
Contents
Preface...................................................................................V
Introduction...........................................................................1
Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar
Part 1: International Polls
The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of
Democracy ..........................................................................13
Tony Cowling
Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and
Divergences ........................................................................25
Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd
A Europe of Values: From Shared History to
Common Objectives...........................................................43
Pascal Chelala
Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization,
Investments and the United States...................................61
Constanza Cilley
How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future?.............77
Marchella Abrasheva
VIII Contents
Part 2: Public Opinion Polling in National
Elections
Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election
Forecasts.............................................................................93
Richard Hilmer
Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling:
Lessons from ABC News’ 32-Night Tracking Poll..........109
Daniel Merkle, Gary Langer, and David Lambert
The Presidential Elections in France 2007 –
The Role of Opinion Polls................................................135
Brice Teinturier
Voters Lack Commitment: Canada..................................153
Richard Jenkins
Part 3: The Public Sector in Transition
Developing Employment Policy in Europe.....................173
Harald Bielenski
The School Sport Partnership Programme – Raising
Levels of Participation in Physical Education and
Sport in Schools in England............................................191
Susannah Quick
Client Satisfaction with Public Services:
A Norwegian Case ............................................................207
Ole Ugland
Contents IX
Part 4: Asia on the Move
The Role of Social Research in Development
Programs: Examples from India......................................229
U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji
A Framework for Social Development Assessment......247
Daniel Lindgren and John Budd
Polling in Developing Democracies – The Case of
the Philippines..................................................................267
Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez
Māori Television Services – Raising Knowledge of
Māori Language and Culture in New Zealand ................281
Elizabeth Vink
About the Authors............................................................293
Introduction
Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar
In recent years a number of studies have been published about the
globalization process and how it affects our societies.1 It has been
shown how the forces driving the process of cross-national integra-
tion started many centuries ago and it has been convincingly demon-
strated how this process has accelerated within the last couple of
decades due to the growth of information technology, the opening of
markets in Asia, Eastern Europe etc.
We live in a world where global trends affect us all and public opin-
ion seems to be among the key elements shaping our democracies2.
Already back in 1922 Walter Lippmann stated that:
“Representative government, either in what is ordinarily called
politics, or in industry, cannot be worked successfully, no matter
what the basis of election, unless there is an independent, expert
organization for making the unseen facts intelligible to those who
have to make the decisions.”3
Lippmann, in particular, referred to the free press as the key institu-
tion for the articulation of public opinion and today, more than 80
years later, this seems to be as true as ever. More recent studies have
also underlined the essential role the media have as the guardians of
1 Hirst and Thompson 1996; Giddens 2000; Schirato 2003; Friedman 2005.
2 Habermas 1989; Forester 1993; Lippmann 1997.
3 Lippmann 1997, p. 8.
2 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar
democracy and the guarantee that citizens can express their views
and have an open and rational debate.4 In democracies it is the voice
of the people that counts and that is why public-opinion polling is
closely linked to democracy. Nicolas Chamfort, an eighteenth cen-
tury French philosopher, surely would not agree with this. In his
view “the public opinion is the worst of all opinions”5. Chamfort
held the view that if an opinion could appeal to a majority it had to
be not common sense, but common nonsense. Democracy soon
changed this elitist point of view, which ruled in the aristocracy and
intellectual elite of the eighteenth century.
In the democracies of today it is of vital importance for governments
to be in line with the views of the voters. There are various ways to
ensure that political leaders and officials stay in contact with the
general public and are held accountable for their actions. Elections
provide the most essential element of this process. The importance
of free and fair elections can hardly be underestimated in modern
democracies since they represent the very essence of democracy and
political representation. At the same time, it is evident that democ-
ratic elections – even if they work flawlessly – are insufficient in
terms of ensuring political representation and accountability since
elections are exercised only at outstretched intervals and are usually
decided by summary judgments rather than reactions to particular
acts. As citizens, we clearly need more discriminating instruments to
enforce political representation and accountability.6
Public meetings have traditionally served as mechanisms for en-
couraging citizens to express their views on specific political issues
and obliging politicians and public officials to justify political ac-
tions. The problem we encounter today, however, is that public
meetings seem to attract an all the more limited group of people,
mainly from political parties, interest groups and other “insider-
4 Habermas 1989; Forester 1993.
5 de Botton 2004, p. 129.
6 Hjelmar, Hilmer and Mueller-Hilmer 2006.
Introduction 3
groups”. It is becoming increasingly difficult to attract citizens at
the margins of society to political meetings and, as a result, the
views expressed at such meetings are seldom representative of the
electorate7.
Public-opinion polling helps to fill this void. Traditional democratic
mechanisms do not seem to be sufficiently distinctive and cohesive
to fulfil the prerequisites of an effective system of political represen-
tation and this, we would argue, has led to an increase in magnitude
and importance of public-opinion polling in modern democracies.
Public-opinion polling seems to be one of the essential ways of ex-
pressing and defining public opinion in society today. For the media
it is an effective way of integrating the views of citizens in the pub-
lic debate and a powerful way of creating news and setting the
agenda. For NGO’s and other stakeholders in the public debate it is a
prime instrument to demonstrate support for specific viewpoints and
to try to influence the political agenda. For the public sector it is be-
coming an essential tool to measure expectations and satisfaction
with public services. For politicians, public opinion polls are very
effective in terms of showing how citizens view existing policies and
how policies could be changed in order to be more in line with “the
will of the people”. The political elite needs a more direct relationship
with its voters and is therefore tending towards a basic virtue of de-
mocracy: to listen to the needs and demands of citizens and link these
directly back to policy-making. This view of the political representa-
tion process emphasizes the benefits of market orientation: first and
foremost the necessity for political parties to understand those it seeks
to serve and deliver a product that reflects their needs and wants8.
The close link between public-opinion polls and democracy is also
underlined by the fact that public-opinion polls are heavily re-
stricted in countries without democracy. According to ESOMAR
and WAPOR, restrictions on the conduct or publication of opinion
7 Hjelmar, Hilmer and Mueller-Hilmer 2006.
8 Lees-Marshment 2004.
