Prospects of Arctic governance

156 Pages·2015·1.86 MB·English

Double
 Master’s
 Degree
 in
 International
 Relations

MGIMO
 –
 LUISS
 Guido
 Carli

Department
 of
 Political
 Science

Chair
 of
 International
 Organisation
 and
 Human
 Rights

Prospects
 of
 Arctic
 governance
:

critical
 analysis
 of
 current
 trends
 and
 future
 scenarios

SUPERVISOR
  CANDIDATE

Professor
 Elena
 Sciso
  Eleonora
 Milazzo

Professor
 Lev
 S.
 Voronkov
  Student
 Reg.
 n.
 622882

CO-­‐SUPERVISOR

Professor
 Maria
 Beatrice
 Deli

Academic
 year
 2014/2015
To
 my
 family.
Acknowledgments

First
 and
 foremost,
 I
 would
 like
 to
 express
 my
 deepest
 gratitude
 to
 my
 supervisors,

Professor
 Elena
 Sciso
 (LUISS),
 and
 Professor
 Lev
 S.
 Voronkov
 (MGIMO),
 who
 have

supported
  me
  throughout
  my
  thesis
  with
  their
  patience
  and
  knowledge
  whilst

allowing
 me
 the
 room
 to
 work
 in
 my
 own
 way.
 Their
 expertise,
 understanding,
 and

patience,
 added
 considerably
 to
 my
 graduate
 studies.

This
 thesis
 is
 the
 result
 of
 many
 experiences
 I
 have
 encountered
 in
 the
 past
 two

years.
 During
 my
 time
 in
 Moscow,
 I
 have
 been
 given
 the
 unique
 opportunity
 to
 carry

out
 a
 research
 period
 at
 the
 Russian
 International
 Affairs
 Council
 (RIAC).
 I
 wish
 to

thank
  all
  RIAC
  staff,
  and
  in
  particular
  Liudmila
  Filippova
  and
  Ilya
  Ivanov,
  for

introducing
 me
 to
 the
 Arctic.

I
 am
 grateful
 to
 Dominic
 Marcellino,
 Elizabeth
 Tedsen,
 and
 Arne
 Riedel
 (Ecologic

Institute),
  Daniel
  Bennett
  (Atlantic
  Council),
  and
  Edvard
  Glucksman
  (ELEEP

Network)
  for
  their
  guidance
  and
  encouragement
  during
  my
  time
  at
  Ecologic

Institute
 as
 Arctic
 Climate
 Change
 Emerging
 Leaders
 (ACCEL)
 Fellow.
 The
 ACCEL

Fellowship
 has
 been
 an
 exceptionally
 enriching
 experience
 and
 I
 am
 grateful
 to

them
 for
 having
 made
 it
 really
 unique.

Special
 thanks
 goes
 to
 Pavel
 Gudev,
 IMEMO
 RAN,
 for
 generously
 providing
 me
 with

his
 valuable
 insights
 on
 Arctic
 governance.

While
 working
 on
 this
 thesis,
 I
 took
 part
 to
 many
 activities,
 including
 the
 Potsdam

Summer
 School
 Arctic
 in
 the
 Anthropocene,
 the
 Arctic
 Summer
 College,
 and
 the

Arctic
 Circle
 Conference
 in
 Reykjavik.
 All
 these
 experiences
 inspired
 my
 work
 and
 I

am
 grateful
 to
 all
 those
 who
 took
 part
 to
 them.

Last
 but
 not
 least,
 I
 would
 like
 to
 express
 my
 gratitude
 to
 my
 parents
 and
 my
 family

for
 the
 unconditional
 support
 throughout
 my
 studies.

Finally,
  I
  would
  like
  to
  thank
  Francesco,
  without
  whose
  encouragement
  and

assistance
 I
 would
 not
 have
 finished
 this
 thesis.

  3
Table
 of
 Contents

TABLE
 OF
 FIGURES

 7

LIST
 OF
 ABBREVIATIONS

 8

INTRODUCTION

 10

PRELIMINARY
 REMARKS

 10

RESEARCH
 STRUCTURE
 AND
 METHODOLOGY

 15

CHAPTER
 1

INTRODUCTION
 TO
 THE
 ARCTIC
 REGION

 17

1.1
 DEFINITIONS
 AND
 KEY
 TERMS

 17

1.2
 LEGAL
 FRAMEWORK

 19

1.2
 UNCLOS

 19

1.2.2
 Other
 agreements

 22

1.3
 ARCTIC
 STATES
 AND
 THE
 ARCTIC
 COUNCIL

 24

1.3.1
 The
 Arctic
 Five

 25

1.3.2
 The
 Arctic
 Eight
 and
 the
 Arctic
 Council

 25

1.4.
 EU,
 NATO,
 AND
 NON-­‐ARCTIC
 STATES
 INVOLVEMENT
 IN
 THE
 ARCTIC

 27

1.4.1
 The
 European
 Union
 Arctic
 policy

 27

1.4.2
 Non-­‐Arctic
 states
 involvement

 30

1.4.3
 The
 Arctic
 and
 NATO:
 active
 engagement?

 31

1.5
 RESOURCES
 AND
 POTENTIAL

 33

1.5.1
 Ownership
 of
 resources

 33

1.5.2
 Fisheries

 34

1.5.3
 Mining

 35

1.5.4
 Shipping

 35

1.5.5
 Oil
 and
 gas
 sector

 37

CHAPTER
 2

ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE:
 SETTINGS,
 TRENDS,
 AND
 CHALLENGES

 39

2.1
 GOVERNANCE:
 DEFINITION,
 KEY
 FEATURES,
 AND
 CHALLENGES

 39

2.1.1
 Defining
 the
 concept
 of
 governance

 40

2.1.2
 Global
 governance:
 key
 features

 41

2.1.3
 Global
 governance:
 challenges
 and
 objectives

 43

  4
2.2
 ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE:
 DEFINITION,
 KEY
 FEATURES,
 AND
 CHALLENGES

 44

2.2.1
 Defining
 the
 concept
 of
 Arctic
 governance

 44

2.2.2
 Arctic
 governance:
 key
 features

 45

2.2.3
 Arctic
 governance:
 challenges
 and
 objectives

 46

2.3
 ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE
 SETTINGS

 50

2.3.1
 Overview
 of
 Arctic
 governance
 settings

 51

2.3.2
 International
 governance
 of
 the
 Arctic

 54

2.3.3
 Regional
 governance
 of
 the
 Arctic

 55

2.3.4
 National
 governance:
 Arctic
 states
 policies

 65

2.4
 ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE:
 LATEST
 TRENDS
 IN
 GOVERNANCE
 SETTINGS

 73

2.4.1
 Arctic
 international
 governance:
 exploring
 trends
 and
 features

 74

2.4.2
 Arctic
 regional
 governance:
 exploring
 trends
 and
 features

 76

2.4.3
 Arctic
 states:
 trends
 in
 national
 policies

 80

CHAPTER
 3

ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE
 SCENARIOS

 83

3.1
 SCENARIOS
 FOR
 THE
 FUTURE
 OF
 ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE

 84

3.1.1
 Overview
 of
 Arctic
 governance
 models

 84

3.1.2
 Proposal
 for
 a
 model
 of
 Arctic
 governance

 85

3.2
 ARCTIC
 TREATY

 89

3.2.1
 Hard
 law
 as
 a
 governance
 pathway
 for
 the
 future

 89

3.2.2
 The
 Antarctic
 treaty
 system:
 setting
 out
 the
 grounds
 for
 a
 comparison

 90

3.2.3
 The
 case
 for
 a
 comprehensive
 international
 treaty
 of
 the
 Arctic

 92

3.2.4
 Counter-­‐arguments:
 hard
 law
 options
 and
 weaknesses
 of
 binding
 regimes

 95

3.2.5
 SWOT
 analysis:
 Arctic
 treaty
 scenario
 at
 a
 glance

 98

3.3
 ARCTIC
 INTERNATIONAL
 ORGANISATION

 99

3.3.1
 From
 Arctic
 Council
 to
 Arctic
 International
 Organisation

 99

3.3.2
 The
 case
 for
 the
 reform
 of
 the
 Arctic
 Council
  102

3.3.3
 Counter-­‐arguments:
 unfeasibility
 of
 the
 AIO
  106

3.3.4
 SWOT
 analysis:
 AIO
 scenario
 at
 a
 glance
  108

3.4
 SOFT
 LAW
 SCENARIO
  109

3.4.1
 Soft
 law
 and
 the
 Arctic:
 in
 search
 of
 a
 cooperative
 solution
  109

3.4.2
 The
 case
 for
 a
 soft
 law
 scenario
  110

3.4.3
 Counter-­‐arguments:
 too
 soft?
  114

3.4.4
 SWOT
 analysis:
 soft
 law
 scenario
 at
 a
 glance
  115

3.5
 REGIONAL
 INTEGRATED
 AGREEMENT
  116

3.5.1
 Regional
 solutions
 to
 global
 problems
  116

  5
3.5.2
 The
 case
 for
 a
 regional
 agreement
 and
 EBM
 in
 the
 Arctic
  118

3.5.3
 Counter-­‐arguments:
 a
 feasible
 option?
  122

3.5.4
 SWOT
 analysis:
 regional
 integrated
 agreement
 scenario
 at
 a
 glance
  124

6.
 PRELIMINARY
 CONCLUSIONS
  125

CHAPTER
 4

CONCLUSION
  126

4.1
 CURRENT
 SITUATION
 AND
 CHALLENGES
 AHEAD
  126

4.2
 IDENTIFYING
 GOVERNANCE
 TRENDS
  128

4.3
 IDENTIFYING
 GOVERNANCE
 DEMANDS
 AND
 ASSESSING
 POSSIBLE
 SCENARIOS
  130

4.4
 ON
 THE
 RADAR
 OF
 ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE:
 GUIDELINES
 FOR
 THE
 FUTURE
  134

REFERENCES
  137

  6
Table
 of
 figures

FIGURE
 1
 AMAP
 DEFINITION
 OF
 THE
 ARCTIC
 ........................................................................................
 18

FIGURE
 2
 MARITIME
 ZONES
 UNDER
 UNCLOS
 ........................................................................................
 19

FIGURE
 3
 ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE
 ARRANGEMENTS
 ...................................................................................
 52

FIGURE
 4
 ARCTIC
 GOVERNANCE
 ARRANGEMENTS
 AND
 OVERLAPPING
 STATE
 MEMBERSHIP
 .............
 53

FIGURE
 5
 MAIN
 FEATURES
 OF
 INTERNATIONAL
 AND
 REGIONAL
 GOVERNANCE
 SETTINGS
 .................
 74

FIGURE
 6
 RESEARCH
 ADDED
 VALUE
 ..........................................................................................................
 87

FIGURE
 7
 MODEL
 FOR
 SCENARIO
 ANALYSIS
 ..............................................................................................
 88

FIGURE
 8
 DESCRIPTION
 OF
 THE
 FOUR
 SCENARIOS
 ...................................................................................
 89

FIGURE
 9
 SWOT
 ANALYSIS
 OF
 THE
 ARCTIC
 TREATY
 SCENARIO
 ...........................................................
 99

FIGURE
 10
 SWOT
 ANALYSIS
 OF
 THE
 AIO
 SCENARIO
 ..........................................................................
 108

FIGURE
 11
 SWOT
 ANALYSIS
 OF
 THE
 SOFT
 LAW
 SCENARIO
 ................................................................
 115

FIGURE
 12
 SWOT
 ANALYSIS
 OF
 THE
 REGIONAL
 INTEGRATED
 SCENARIO
 ........................................
 125

  7
List
 of
 abbreviations

AC

  Arctic
 Council

AIO

  Arctic
 International
 Organisation

AMAP

  Arctic
 Monitoring
 and
 Assessment
 Program

AMSA

  Arctic
 Marine
 Shipping
 Assessment

Artt.

  Articles

BEAC

  Barents
 Euro-­‐Arctic
 Council

BRC

  Barents
 Regional
 Council

CBSS

  Council
 of
 the
 Baltic
 Sea
 States

EBM

  Ecosystem
 Based
 Management

EEZ

  Exclusive
 Economic
 Zone

IMO

  International
 Maritime
 Organisation

ICC

  Inuit
 Circumpolar
 Council

NC

  Nordic
 Council

NCM

  Nordic
 Council
 of
 Ministers

ND

  Northern
 Dimension

NEAFC

  Northeast
 Atlantic
 Fisheries
 Commission

NF

  Northern
 Forum

POPs

  Persistent
 Organic
 Pollutants

PPs

  Permanent
 Participants

SAR

  Search
 and
 Rescue

SWOT

  Strengths-­‐Weaknesses-­‐Opportunity-­‐Threats

UNCLOS
  United
 Nations
 Convention
 on
 the
 Law
 of
 the
 Sea

UNFCC

  United
 Nations

  8
The
 Arctic
 is
 not
 only
 the
 Arctic
 Ocean,
 but
 also
 the
 northern
 tips
 of
 three

continents:
 Europe,
 Asia
 and
 America.
 It
 is
 the
 place
 where
 Eurasian,
 North

American
 and
 Asian
 Pacific
 regions
 meet,
 where
 frontiers
 come
 close
 to
 one

another
 and
 the
 interests
 of
 the
 states
 belonging
 to
 mutually
 opposed
 military

blocs
 and
 nonaligned
 ones
 cross.

M.
 Gorbachev,
 Murmansk
 Speech,
 1987

  9
Introduction

Preliminary
 remarks

In
 the
 next
 few
 years,
 the
 Arctic
 is
 going
 to
 face
 new
 challenges
 and
 transboundary

threats.
 Global
 climate
 change
 will
 bring
 deep
 changes
 to
 the
 Arctic
 ecosystem
 with

economic,
 political,
 environmental,
 and
 social
 repercussions.

Prospects
 of
 expanded
 navigable
 routes
 constitute
 one
 of
 the
 greatest
 challenges
 to

Arctic
 governance.
 According
 to
 the
 United
 States
 Arctic
 Research
 Commission,
 in

2012
  the
  ice
  cap
  of
  the
  Arctic
  Ocean
  reached
  its
  lowest
  level
  since
  the
  first

observation
 made
 by
 National
 Aeronautics
 and
 Space
 Administration
 (NASA)
 in

1979.1
 In
 September
 2012,
 40
 percent
 of
 the
 Central
 Arctic
 Ocean
 was
 free
 from
 ice.

In
 the
 next
 decade,
 sea
 ice
 reduction
 will
 expand
 navigable
 routes
 connecting
 the

Arctic
 and
 the
 Pacific
 Ocean
 in
 summer
 time.
 Observations
 of
 lowering
 sea
 ice
 levels

1
 US
 Arctic
 Research
 Commission
 (USARC),
 2013.
 Report
 on
 the
 Goals
 and
 Objectives
 for
 Arctic

Research
 2013-­‐2014.
 Available
 at
 http://www.arctic.gov/publications/goals/usarc_goals_2013-­‐

14.pdf.
 [Accessed
 19th
 April
 2015].

  10