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Probabilities Probabilities The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives Second Edition Peter Olofsson DepartmentofMathematics TrinityUniversity SanAntonio,TX Copyright(cid:2)c 2015byJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.Allrightsreserved. PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey. PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,or transmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying, recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSection107or108ofthe 1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthe Publisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetothe CopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,(978) 750-8400,fax(978)750-4470,oronthewebatwww.copyright.com.Requeststothe PublisherforpermissionshouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,John Wiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030,(201)748-6011,fax(201) 748-6008,oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permission. LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveused theirbesteffortsinpreparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswith respecttotheaccuracyorcompletenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecifically disclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose. Nowarrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysalesrepresentativesorwrittensales materials.Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitableforyour situation.Youshouldconsultwithaprofessionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthe publishernorauthorshallbeliableforanylossofprofitoranyothercommercial damages,includingbutnotlimitedtospecial,incidental,consequential,orother damages. Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport, pleasecontactourCustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800) 762-2974,outsidetheUnitedStatesat(317)572-3993orfax(317)572-4002. Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthat appearsinprintmaynotbeavailableinelectronicformats.Formoreinformationabout Wileyproducts,visitourwebsiteatwww.wiley.com. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData: Olofsson,Peter,1963- Probabilities:thelittlenumbersthatruleourlives/PeterOlofsson,Mathematics Department,TrinityUniversity,SanAntonio,TX.–Secondedition. pagescm Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-1-118-89890-1(cloth) 1.Probabilities–Popularworks.2.Mathematics–Miscellanea.I.Title. QA273.O462015 519.2–dc23 2014020559 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica. 10987654321 Contents PrefacetotheSecondEdition ix PrefacetotheFirstEdition xi 1 ComputingProbabilities:RightWaysandWrongWays 1 TheProbabilist 1 TheProbabilist’sToysandLanguage 4 TheProbabilist’sRuleBook 10 Independence,Airplanes,andRussianPeasants 15 ConditionalProbability,SwedishTV,andBritishCourts 20 Liar,Liar 25 CarDealersandColorBlindness 29 ShuttlecocksandSpaghettiWesterns 34 Combinatorics,Pastrami,andPoetry 40 TheVonTrappsandTheBinomialDistribution 45 FinalWord 51 2 SurprisingProbabilities:WhenIntuitionStruggles 53 Boys,Girls,Aces,andColoredCards 53 vi CONTENTS GoatsandGloats 58 HappyBirthday 61 TypicalAtypicalities 66 TheBritishSnobandI 72 Strategery 75 FinalWord 78 3 TinyProbabilities:WhyAreTheySoHardtoEscape? 79 ProbableImprobabilities 79 SaddamandI 83 TakingTinyRisks 89 AMillion-to-OneShot,Doc,MilliontoOne! 91 MonsieurPoissonandtheMysteriousNumber37 93 ClumpsinSpace 98 FinalWord 100 4 BackwardProbabilities:TheReverendBayestoOurRescue 101 DrivingMissDaisy 101 Bayes,Balls,andBoys(andGirls) 104 BayesandMyGreenCard 107 ObjectionYourHonor 112 Ornithology 122 FinalWord 125 5 BeyondProbabilities:WhattoExpect 127 GreatExpectations 127 ThePriceisRight(Maybe) 134 Blood,Sweat,andTheory 137 GoodThingsCometoThoseWhoWait 140 ExpecttheUnexpected 145 ExponentialGrowthtowardExtinction 149 SizeMatters(andLength,andAge) 159 Mean,Median,Mode 165 vii CONTENTS DeviantBehavior 171 FinalWord 176 6 InevitableProbabilities:TwoFascinatingMathematicalResults 177 AleaIactaEst,OverandOver 177 Even-Steven?TheLawMisunderstood 181 CoinTossesandFreewayCongestion 188 Let’sGetSerious 195 BellsandBread 200 HowaTorontoQuincunxChangedMyLife 204 FinalWord 206 7 GamblingProbabilities:WhyDonaldTrumpIsRicherthanYou 209 FrenchLetters 209 Roulette:AClassyWaytoWasteYourMoney 214 Craps:NotsoDiceyafterAll 219 Blackjack:MoneyforMnemonics 222 MathforLosers 227 WinMoneyandLoseFriends 234 FinalWord 245 8 GuessingProbabilities:EntertheStatisticians 247 Lies,DamnedLies,andBeautifulLies? 247 4Outof10LikethePresident19TimesOutof20 251 PollsGoneWild 257 TheSilverLining 262 TheLawsuitandtheLurker 265 FootballPlayersandGeyserEruptions 271 SnoopingintheAbbot’sGarden 278 FinalWord 284 9 FakingProbabilities:ComputerSimulation 285 MahoganyDiceandModularArithmetic 285 RandomandNot-So-RandomDigits 293 viii CONTENTS NumberOneisNumberOne 294 IsRandomReallyRandom? 297 FinalWord 302 Index 305

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Praise for the First Edition“If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations.” - Keith Devlin, Stanford Un

Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives PDF

325 Pages·2015·2.26 MB·English

by Peter Olofsson

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Publication Year:	2015
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Language:	English
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