Probabilistic Structural Mechanics: Advances in Structural Reliability Methods: IUTAM Symposium, San Antonio, Texas, USA June 7–10,1993

620 Pages·1994·44.19 MB·English

by  Suneung Ahn

Probabilistic Structural Mechanics:
Advances in Structural Reliability
Methods
International Union of Theoretical
and Applied Mechanics
P. D. Spanos, Y. -T. Wu (Eds.)
Probabilistic Structural Mechanics:
Advances in Structural Reliability
Methods
IUTAM Symposium, San Antonio, Texas, USA
June 7 -10,1993
Springer-Verlag
Berlin Heidelberg New York
London Paris Tokyo
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Prof. Pol D. Spanos
Rice University
L. B. Ryon Chair in Engineering
p. O. Box 1892
Houston, TX n251
USA
Dr. Y-T. Wu
Southwest Research Institute
6220 Culebra Road
San Antonio, TX 78228
USA
ISBN-13 : 978-3-642-85094-3 e-ISBN-13 : 978-3-642-85092-9
DOl : 10.1 007 /978-3-642-85092-9
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Preface
This symposium is the seventh of a series of IUTAM sponsored symposia
which focus on probabilistic methods in mechanics. It is the sequel to the
series of meetings in Coventry, UK (1972), Southhampton, UK (1976),
Frankfurt/Oder, Germany (1982), Stockholm, Sweden (1984), Innsbruck/Igls,
Austria (1987), and Turin, Italy (1991). The symposium focused on advances
in the area of probabilistic mechanics with direct application to structural
reliability issues. The contributed papers address collectively the four
components of a structural reliability problem. They are: characterization of
stochastic loads, description of material properties in terms of fatigue and
fracture, response determination, and quantitative assessment of the reliability
o.
of the structural system. Four Keynote Lectures by V. Bolotin (Russia),
Ditlevsen (Denmark), R. Heller (USA), and F. Ziegler (Austria) were
delivered; the remaining contributed papers were organized in ten technical
sessIons.
A reception was hosted by Dr. Y. Wu the first day of the symposium; the
second day of the symposium a banquet was hosted by Dr. P. Spanos, with Dr.
N. Abramson serving as the banquet speaker. Closing remarks were provided
by the IUTAM Secretary General, Dr. F. Ziegler.
On behalf of the Scientific and Organizing Committees of the symposium, we
would like to thank the IUTAM bureau for promoting and sponsoring this
symposium. Thanks are also expressed to the sponsors of this symposium who
have assisted in defraying its cost. Of course, the contribution of the authors
and participants in the symposium is most appreciated. The assistance in
processing the manuscipts provided by Mrs. L. Richardson and Messrs. R.
Eberle, S. Miller, and J. D. Rowatt of Rice University is acknowledged.
From a purely editorial perspective, a concerted effort has been made through
an iterative process between the editors and the authors to normalize and
homogenize the papers which are included in this volume. However, beyond
a certain stage of iteration, it was decided to respect the preferences and even
idiosyncratic style of some of the authors.
P. D. Spanos, Editor
Y.-T. Wu, Co-Editor
Closing Remarks by F. Ziegler,
IU TAM-Secretry General
IUTA M is proud of developments in Stochastic Mechanics, discussed in
documents such as the Proceedings of the IUTAM Symposium on Nonlinear
Stochastic Mechanics, (Torino, Italy, 1-5 July 1991), edited by N. Bellomo and
F. Casciati, and published by Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1992. Also here in San
Antonio, the Scientific Committee has put together a fme and selective
program with a proper mixture of contributions by younger and/or
distinguished speakers. Participants from 12 countries and from all five
continents are registered. Emphasis is on Reliability, but the Mechanics
background is more or less visible. Personally, I think that the Mechanics
community must break through the "classical" boundaries. However,
theoretical and applied Mechanics must remain the source of our
considerations. Lively discussions and devoted speakers made this symposium
a success also in the sense of a IUTAM-Symposium. The Session-Chairmen
had an easy task due to the 30 minutes allocated to each speaker and due to
their discipline; the very good personal relations within that truly international
group guaranteed a stimulating atmosphere. The thanks of IUTA M go to the
chairman, Dr. Y.-T. Wu, to the Scientific Committee, and last but not least,
to the Speakers and active Participants who did their best to bring up the
latest achievements in the field. Pol Spanos will seek a publisher of the
Proceedings of our Symposium which has come to an end.
In closing, I would like to call your attention to the next IUTAM-Symposium
on "Advances in Nonlinear Stochastic Mechanics", to be held 3-7 July 1995 in
Trondheim, Norway under the co-chairmanship of S. Krenk and A. Naess. If
we would like to keep the subject within IUTAM and to have a Symposium
in the year 1997, a proposal should be sent to the IUTAM-Secretary General
by the end of 1993. The decision would be made by the General Assembly
in Amsterdam, on 28 August 1994 after considering the suggestions made by
the Symposia Panel. Another earlier option would be to organize a Satellite
Session, a new "invention", at the 19th ICTAM, Kyoto, 25-30 August 1996.
The Congress President is Professor T. Tatsumi, President of the Kyoto
Institute of Technology.
F. Ziegler
Contents
Deriving Probability Models for Stress Analysis
S. Ahn, S. Chick and M.B. Mendel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Fatigue Life Prediction of Structures
V.V. Bolotin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11
Stochastic Boundary Element Methods: Computational
Methodology and Applications
T. Burczynski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Hysteretic Systems Subjected to Delta Correlated Input
S. Caddemi and M. Di Paola. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
A New Second-Order Approximate Reliability Method Based
on Hyper-Parabolic Failure Surfaces
G.Q. Cai and I. Elishakoff ....................................... 68
Fatigue Lifetime Prediction for Uncertain Systems
F. Casciati and P. Colombi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Probabilistic Assessment of Composite and Smart Composite
Structures
C.C. Chamis and M. C. Shiao... ... ... ..... . . .. . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. 100
Forecasting of Supply Interruption Rate with Widespread
Damage to the Water Supply Network
T. Chiba and Y. Shimizu. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. 120
Reliability of Silo Ring Under Lognormal Stochastic Pressure
Using Stochastic Interpolation
O. Ditlevsen, C. Christensen and S. Randrup-Thomsen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 134
Improved Bounds on First-Passage Times for Scalar Gaussian
Processes
S. Engelund, R. Rackwitz and C. Lange. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 163
Reliability Assessment via Log-Likelihood Maximization
L. Faravelli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 175
VIII
Reliability Analysis of Nonlinear 3-D Frames with PR Connections
bySFEM
L. Gao and A. Haldar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 189
Structural Reliability Optimization
P. Geyskens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 205
Response Functions and System Reliability of Bridges
M. Ghosn, F. Moses and N. Khedekar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 220
A Survey of Probabilistic Service Life Prediction Methods
for Structures
R.A. Heller and S. Thangjitham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 237
Prediction Control of Structures by ARMA Modeling
M. Hoshiya and Y. Saito . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 267
Reliability Analysis Methods for Linear Uncertain Dynamic Systems
Y. Ibrahim and L.H. Tong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 278
Improved Formula for Upper Bound of Probability of Failure Based
on Means and Variances
M. Ichikawa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. 293
Stochastic Simulation of Initiation and Early Growth of Small
Cracks in Creep-Fatigue
T. Kitamura, N. Tada and R. Ohtani . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 301
Study of Three Reliability Methods for Fatigue Crack Growth
w.K. Liu, Y.J. Lua, Y. Chen and T. Belytschko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 319
Reliability-Based Tail Estimation
M. A. Maes and K. Breitung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
Some Developments in Directional Simulation for Time Variant
Structural Systems
R.E. Melchers ................................................ 347
Empirical Limit State Modelling in Reliability Analysis
G. Mohr ..................................................... 366
Fatigue Specific Linearization Methods
A. Naess and S.R. Winterstein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 381
Stochastic Materials Design of Fibrous Composite Laminates
H. Nakayasu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 392
IX
Manufacturing Requirements from a Probabilistic Design Analysis
Approach to Optimizing for Robust Design
G.B. Orient, K.R Rajagopal, D.L. O'Connor and J.P. Newell. . . . . . . . . . .. 412
Advances in Reliability Estimation of MDOF- Systems
H.J. Pradlwarter, G.!. Schueller and P.G. Melnik-Melnikov 432
Grain Boundary Failure and Geometrical Models of Creep Damage
H. Riesch-Oppermann and A. Bruckner-Foit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 442
Reliability of Unidirectional Composites Using Genetic Algorithms
D.G. Robinson and G. Toussaint. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 455
Random Vibration of Structures Under Non-Gaussian Excitation
P. Sniady and R Sieniawska ..................................... 466
Design Sensitivity Random Eigenvalue Problem in Dynamics and
Buckling of Structures
P. Sniady and S. Zukowski ...................................... 481
A Probabilistic Model for the Accumulation of Fatigue Damage in
Composite Laminates
P.D. Spanos and J. D. Rowatt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 494
Analysis of Structural Control Robustness: Reliability Methods
B.P. Spencer, Jr., M.K. Sain, C.-H. Won and L.M. Barroso ............. 504
Probabilistic Structural Analyses of Ceramic Gas Thrbine Components
T. Teramae, S. Hamada and J. Hamanaka ........................... 518
Robust Structural System Design Using A System Reliability-Based
Design Optimization Method
T.Y. Tomg and RJ. Yang . ...................................... 534
Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS)-Based System Reliability
Sensitivity Analysis Method
Y.-T. Wu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 550
Time Dependent System Reliability Under Cumulative Damage
Q. Xiao and S. Mahadevan ...................................... 565
Reliability Against Fracture with Uncertain Crack Geometry
Y. Zhang and A. Der Kiureghian ................................. 582
Dynamic Snap-Through and Snap-Buckling of Shear-Deformable
Panels in a Random Environment
P. Ziegler, R Heuer and H. Irschik . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 595
x
Scientific Committee
A. H-S. Ang, USA
T. A. Cruse, USA
A. Der Kiureghian, USA
O. Ditlevsen, Denmark
R. A. Heller, USA
H. Ishikawa, Japan
R. E. Melchers, Australia
R. Rackwitz, Germany
K. Sobczyk, Poland
P. D. Spanos, USA
Y.-T. Wu, USA
F. Ziegler, Austria
Local Organizing Committee
Y.-T. Wu
U. S. Lindholm
O. H. Burnside
P. D. Spanos
Sponsors
International Union of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics
Southwest Research Institute, USA
National Science Foundation, USA
Department of Energy, USA
Deriving Probability Models for Stress
Analysis
Suneung Ahn, Stephen Chicktand Max B. Mendelt
Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University
of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
tSupported by Department of Defense NDSEG fellowship.
tResearch partially supported by the Army Research Office (DAAL03-91-G-
0046) grant to the University of California at Berkeley.
Abstract. This paper presents an approach to derive probability models for
use in structural reliability studies. Two main points are made. First, that it
is possible to translate engineering and physics knowledge into a requirement
on the form of a probability model. And second, that making assumptions
about a probability model for structural failure implies either explicit or
hidden assumptions about material and structural properties. The work is
foundational in nature, but is developed with explicit examples taken from
planar and general stress problems, the von Mises failure criterion, and a
modified Weibull distribution.
Keywords. Probability models, static stress, material reliability
1 Introduction
An important design parameter for structural analysis is the probability that
a structure or component will fail. This number is generally calculated from
material constants, the probable stresses to be applied to the component, a
failure criterion (such as the von Mises or Tresca criteria), experimentation,
and the selection of a probability model (such as the normal, exponential
or Weibull distributions). Although there has been much discussion on the
relative merits of the various failure criteria, and much experimental work in
describing material constants such as Young's modulus and the Poisson ratio,
relatively little work has been done to direct the selection of an appropriate
probability model, or to connect model parameters to physically measurable
values.
Probability models are often selected by choosing one of the standard ana
lytical models, such as the normal, exponential or Weibull models, and fitting
the parameters to experimental data. This paper discusses an alternate ap
proach to selecting a probability model. It is a method of deriving models