Probabilistic Safety Assessment in the Chemical and Nuclear Industries

545 Pages·2000·46.726 MB·English

by  Ralph Fullwood Attended Texas Technological University Harvard University University of Pennsylvania and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment
in the Chemical and Nuclear Industries
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Probabilistic Safety Assessment
in the Chemical and Nuclear Industries
Ralph R. Fullwood
• »1U TTER W O R TH
|S|E 1 N E M A N N
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Copyright €> 2000 by Butterworth-Heinemann
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Fullwood, R. R.
Probabilistic safety assessment in the chemical and nuclear
industries / Ralph R. Fullwood.
p. cm.
Rev. edition of: Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power
industry, 1988.
ISBN 0-7506-7208-0 (alk. paper)
1, Nuclear power plants—Risk assessment. 2. Chemical plants—Risk
assessment. I. Title.
TK9153.F8531999 99-37453
363.17'992—dc21 CIP
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Disclaimer
The information in this book is collected from published and unpublished literature.
Responsibility for the accuracy of this material is disclaimed, however, responsibility is accepted for
the selection, organization, and presentation. The vastness of the information necessitates selectivity
in the attempt to make a comprehensive and cohesive presentation. The material is selected to
illustrate a procedure or principle not advocacy. Every effort toward objectivity was made to balance
human health and safety, environment, economic welfare, and civilization.
Neither I, Brookhaven National Laboratory from which I am retired, nor the publisher are
responsible for the materials presented here.
RALPH R. FULL WOOD
Upton, NY
October 1998
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Contents
Chapter I Protecting the Public Health and Safety , 1
1.1 Historical Review , , i
1.1.1 Beginnings , . . , , , ., . I
1.1.2 Industrial Revolution 2
1.1.3 This Century ....... 3
.,2 Risk Assessment Objectives , .... 5
1.3 Risk, Hazard, and other Terms .....,,,., 6
1.4 Quantitative Aspects of Risk 6
1.4.1 Actuarial or Linear Risk , , 6
1.4.2 Shortcomings of Linear Risk , .... 7
1.4.3 Presentation of Risk . . . . , . , . . , , .. 8
1.4.4 Public Perception of Risk , 12
1.5 Safety Goals 13
1.6 Emergency Planning Zones 15
1.7 Use of PSA by Government and Industry 17
1.8 Regulation of Nuclear Power , 18
1.8.1 Regulations 18
1.8.2 Regulatory Structure 18
1.8.3 Licensing Process 19
1.8.4 Public Participation 20
1.8.5 Advisory Committee on Reactor Safety (ACRS) 20
1.8.6 Inspection ..21
1.8.7 Decommissioning 21
1.8.8 Accident Severity Criteria , .21
1.8.9 PSA Requirements 22
1.9 Regulation of Chemical Processing and Wastes . 22
1.9.1 Environmental Law 22
1.9.2 Occupational Risk Protection: the PSM Rule 27
1.10 Summary 33
1.11 Problems 34
Chapter 2. Mathematics for Probabilistic Safety 35
2.1 Boolean Algebra 35
2.2 Venn Diagram and Mincuts 37
2.3 Probability and Frequency 39
2.4 Combining Probabilities 4!
2.4.1 Intersection or Multiplication 41
2.4.2 Union or Addition 41
2.4.3 M-Out-of-N-Combinations 42
2.5 Distributions 42
2.5.1 Discrete Distributions 43
vn
2.5.2 Continuous Distributions . , 44
2.5.3 Confidence Limits . 47
2.5.4 Markov Modeling 48
2.5.5 Summary of Functions and their Generating Functions 49
2.6 Bayesian Methods 50
2.6.1 Bayes' Equation 50
2.6.2 Bayes Conjugates for Including New Information 51
2.6.3 Constant Failure Rate Model 52
2.6.4 Failure on Demand Model 54
2.6.5 Interpretations of Bayes Statistics 55
2.7 Uncertainty Analysis . 56
2.7.1 Convolution 56
2.7.2 Moments Method . 57
2.7.3 Taylor's Series 57
2.7.4 Monte Carlo . 59
2.7.5 Discrete Probability Distribution (DPD) 60
2.8 Sensitivity Analysis and Importance Measures 61
2.8.1 Sensitivity Analysis 61
2.8.2 Importance Measures 62
2.8.3 Relationships between the Importance Measures 63
2.8.4 Interpretation and Usage 64
2.9 Summary 65
2.10 Problems ......... 66
Chapter 3 Chemical and Nuclear Accident Analysis Methods 67
3.1 Guidance from the PSM Rule 67
3.1.1 Rule Objectives 67
3.1.2. Employee Involvement in Process Safety 67
3.1.3. Process Safety Information 68
3.2 Process Hazard Analysis 70
3.2.1 Overview 70
3.2.2 Operating Procedures and Practices 71
3.2.3. Employee Training 71
3.2.4 Contractors 71
3.2.5 Pre-Startup Safety 72
3.2.6 Mechanical Integrity 72
3.2.7 Nonroutine Work Authorization 73
3.2.8 Managing Change ,73
3.2.9 Investigation of Incidents . 74
3.2.10 Emergency Preparedness . 74
3.2.11 Compliance Audits . 75
3.3 Qualitative Methods of Accident Analysis 76
3.3.i Checklist 77
Vlll
3.3.2 What-If Analysis 81
3.3.3 What-If/Checklist Analysis ... 84
3.3.4 Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) 86
3.3.5 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 94
3.4 Quantitative Methods of Accident Analysis 97
3.4.1 Parts Count 98
3.4.2 FMEA/FMECA . , 99
3.4.3 Reliability Block Diagram (RED). 100
3.4.4 Fault Tree Analysis 101
3.4.5 Event Trees ......... 111
3.4.6 Alternatives to Fault Tree Analysis 119
3.5 Common Cause of Failure 123
3.5.1 Known Deterministic Coupling 124
3.5.2 Known Stochastic Coupling 125
3.5.3 Unknown Stochastic Coupling 125
3.5.4 Modeling Known Dependencies ....,,, , . 125
3.5.5 Geometric Mean 126
3.5.6 Beta Factor 126
3.5.7 Example of the Beta-Factor Method: Emergency Electric Power ...... 127
3.5.8 Common Cause Multiparameter Models .127
3.6 Computer Codes for System Reliability Analysis 128
3.6.1 Codes for Finding Minimal Cutsets and Tree Quantification . 130
3.6.2 Truncation of a Fault Tree 133
3.6.3 Time Dependence 134
3.6.4 Uncertainty Analysis 134
3.6.5 Importance Calculations 134
3.6.6 Processing Cutset Information , . . 135
3.6.7 System Analysis Code Usage in Past PSAs 136
3.6.8 Logistics of Acquiring Codes ......,,,. 136
3.7 Code Suites ., 136
3.7.1 SAPHIRE 136
3.7.2 PSAPACK 141
3.7.3 RISKMAN . 143
3.7.4 R&R Workstation 144
3.7.5 WinNUPRA, NUCAP+, and SAFETY MONITOR 145
3.8 Summary 147
3.9 Problems 148
Chapter 4 Failure Rates, Incidents and Human Factors Data 151
4.1 Databases , 151
4.1.1 Background 151
4.1.2 Some Reliability Data Compilations 151
4.2 Incident Reports 158
IX