Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in America’s Foreign and Defense Policy

420 Pages·2000·58.33 MB·English

by  Robert Kagan

CRISIS AND OPPORTUNITY IN
AMERICAN FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICY
EDITED BY ROBERT KAGAN AND WILLIAM KRISTOL

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Present Dangers
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Present Dangers
Crisis and Opportunity
in American Foreign and Defense Policy
edited by
Robert Kagan and William Kristol
E
Encounter Books
San Francisco, California
Copyright © 2000 byRobertKagan andWilliamKristol
Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced, stored
in a retrieval system, ortransmitted, in any form orbyanymeans, elec-
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Firstpaperbackeditionpublishedin2000byEncounterBooks, anactiv-
ityofEncounterforCultureandEducation, Inc., anonprofittaxexempt
corporation.
EncounterBookswebsite address: www.encounterbooks.com
Manufactured inthe United States andprinted onacid-freepaper.
The paperused in thispublicationmeets the minimumrequirements of
ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992 (R 1997) (PermanenceofPaper).
LibraryofCongress Cataloging-in-PublicationData
Kagan, Robert.
Present dangers : crisis and opportunityinAmericanforeign and
defense policy,
p. cm.
Includes bibliographic referencesand index.
ISBN 1-893554-16-3 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. United State—Foreign relations—1989—Philosophy. 2. United
States—Militarypolicy—Philosophy. I. Kristol, William. II. Title.
E840.K316 2000
327.7—dc21
00-034728
9876543
10
Contents
Vll
Preface
An Overview
I.
3
WILLIAM KRISTOL AND ROBERT KAGAN
Introduction:
National Interest and Global Responsibility
25
JAMES CEASER
W.
The Great Divide:
American Internationalism and its Opponents
II. The Mounting Threat
47
ROSS MUNRO
H.
China: The Challenge ofa Rising Power
75
PETER RODMAN
W.
Russia: The Challenge ofa Failing Power
99
RICHARD PERLE
N.
Iraq: Saddam Unbound
111
REUEL MARC GERECHT
Iran: Fundamentalism and Reform
145
NICHOLAS EBERSTADT
North Korea: Beyond Appeasement
III. Allies and Military Assets
179
JEFFREY GEDMIN
Europe and NATO: Saving the Alliance
197
AARON FRIEDBERG
L.
Asian Allies: True Strategic Partners
221
ELLIOTT ABRAMS
Israel and the "Peace Process"
241
FREDERICK KAGAN
W.
The Decline ofAmericas Armed Forces
267
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER
Weapons Proliferation and Missile Defense: The Strategic Case
IV. American Leadership: Strength and Principle
289
WILLIAM BENNETT
J.
Morality, Characterand American Foreign Policy
307
PAUL WOLFOWITZ
Statesmanship in the New Century
337
DONALD KAGAN
Strength and Will: A Historical Perspective
363
About the Authors
367
Notes
387
Index
Preface
This book is an outgrowth ofan article we published in For-
eign Affairs in 1996, "Toward a Neo-Reaganite Foreign Pol-
icy." Wewarned there ofthe growingthreats totheAmericanpeace
established at the endofthe ColdWar, and called foraforeignpol-
icyof"benevolent hegemony" as awayofsecuring thatpeace and
advancing American interests and principles around the world.
The article sparked controversy in the United States and abroad,
and the question ofAmerican hegemony has become a principal
focus ofthe foreign policy debate.
Events of recent years have given us no reason to change our
fundamental view either ofthe emerging dangers or ofthe pre-
scriptions formeeting these dangers. Ifanything, the trend ofthe
past fewyears hasproven moretroublingthanwe anticipated. The
emergence ofChina as a strong, determined, andpotentiallyhos-
tilepower; thetroublingdirectionofpoliticaldevelopments inRus-
sia; thecontinuingthreatposedbyaggressivedictatorships inIraq,
Serbia, and North Korea; the increasingly alarming decline in
—
American military capabilities all these and more suggest that
the coming years maybe critical in determining the fate ofinter-
nationalpeaceandoftheAmericanhegemonyonwhichthatpeace
depends. The aim ofthis collection of essays is to provide a sur-
veyofthese manydangers andtoofferrecommendationstoAmer-
ican policy-makers on how to meet and overcome the challenges
we face in the world.
As the readerwill see, the authors in this book include some of
Americas leading foreign policy thinkers and practitioners ofthe
viii PRESENT DANGERS
past two decades. Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, William Schnei-
der, ElliottAbrams, and PeterRodman have served at the highest
levels of government. William Bennett, former secretary of edu-
cation and drugczar, has been a leading commentatoron the role
ofmorality inAmerican societyandpolitics. Donald Kagan, Aaron
Friedberg, and Nicholas Eberstadt are leading authorities in their
respective academic fields. It is fairto saythat all are conservative
in their outlook. But what distinguishes them is that they are all
conservative internationalists, with a strong commitment to vig-
orous American global leadership, to American power, and to the
advancement ofAmerican democratic and free-marketprinciples
abroad. In this sense, theyare the true heirstoatradition inAmer-
ican foreign policy that runs at least from Theodore Roosevelt
through Ronald Reagan.
The topics covered in these essays range across several broad
themes. In our introductory essay, we argue that the world has,
indeed, becomea more perilousplace afterthe squandered decade
of the 1990s and that the "present danger" lies in Americas hesi-
tancy in maintaining its global hegemonyagainstthe manyemerg-
ing challenges. James Ceaser then takes a broad look at the for-
eign policy debates ofthe past decade, and especiallythe debates
amongconservatives, offeringan important analysis ofwhatmod-
ern conservative internationalism is and is not.
Part Two deals with the main threats to American peace in the
auningdecade. First, Ross Munro and PeterRodmanaddress the
challenges likely to be posed bytwoworldpowers, Chinaand Rus-
sia. Munro contends that China is fast emerging as the greatest
threat to American interests and thata serious conflictwith China
mki\ come soonerthan manywouldliketobelieve. Rodmanargues
that Russian leaders are movingtowardanewrealism intheirfor-
eign policy, one that offers both dangers andopportunities forthe
United States. The next three chapters consider the problem of
"rogue states." Richard Perlewarns that Saddam Hussein is on the
\ci ge <>! breaking free from the international constraints imposed
on him at the end of the GulfWar, and that unless a concerted
effort is made to remove him from power he will soon acquire
weapons of mass destruction and fundamentally alter the strate-
gic balance in the Middle East. Reuel Marc Gerecht cautions that
the Iranian regime is not necessarilymovingin a "moderate" direc-
tion, as nunn assume, andwill continue topose seriousproblems