Table Of ContentPredictions in the Brain
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Predictions in the Brain
USING OUR PAST TO GENERATE A FUTURE
Edited by
MOSHE BAR
Originating from a Theme Issue
published in P hilosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences .
1
1
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Predictions in the brain : using our past to generate a future / edited by Moshe Bar.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-19-539551-8
1. Consciousness–Research. 2. Self-consciousness (Awareness) 3. Brain–Evolution. I. Bar, Moshe. II. Title.
BF311.P734 2011
153--dc22
2010036273
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed in China
PREFACE
Predictions: A Universal Principle in the Operation of the Human Brain
Moshe Bar
It is possible to explain complicated facets of attitude following an interruption. While such
nature in simple terms: Darwin’s natural selec- stability is a desired property for a passenger air-
tion in evolution, Einstein’s E = mc 2 , Maxwell’s plane, it opposes a pilot’s eff ort to change head-
equations in electromagnetics, the Big Five ings rapidly and thus can degrade maneuvering
personality traits in psychology (and Murphy’s performance required for a fi ghter jet. As can be
“laws” for most other aspects of everyday life). evident from the collection of ideas presented
Similarly, it might be possible for the multidisci- here, the brain might be similarly fl exible and
plinary study of the brain to produce a short “restless” by default. Th is restlessness does not
list of universal principles that can explain refl ect random activity that is there merely for the
the majority of its operation. Given exciting sake of remaining active, but instead it refl ects the
developments in theory, empirical fi ndings, and ongoing generation of predictions, which relies
computational studies, it seems that the genera- on memory and enhances our interaction with
tion of predictions might be one strong candi- and adjustment to the demanding environment.
date for such a universal principle. Predictions in Th e topics that one might expect to learn
the brain is the focus of the collection of chapters about and hopefully be stimulated from by read-
in this book. Th e contributions here range ing this book are naturally diverse. For example:
from addressing cellular underpinnings to com-
putational principles, and from systems neuro- • Th e association and overlap between future-
science to cognition, emotion, and happiness. related thinking and memory. An intriguing
Th ey cover predictions that range from the next idea in this context is that recollection relies
turn for a rat navigating a maze and food-cach- on reconstruction, a mechanism that could
ing in scrub jays to predictions required in deci- also provide a valuable tool for generating
sion making and social interactions, from the future-related thoughts. What are the neural
retina to the prefrontal cortex, and from early mechanisms mediating such constructive
development to foresight, or its lack thereof, in processes?
nonhumans. • Th e connections between imagery, simulation,
Th ere is an intriguing analogy when thinking mental reconstruction, pattern completion,
about the brain in action. Th e F-16 fi ghter plane is action plans, spatial navigation, and more.
the fi rst airplane intentionally designed to have an • Th e cellular mechanisms that balance the need
aerodynamically unstable platform. Th is design to store stable memories and the need to be
was chosen to enhance the aircraft ’s maneuver- able to update them with novel experiences.
ability. Most airplanes are designed to be stable • Reasoning for past and future: “what if” ques-
such that they strive to return to their original tions and mental scenarios in the context of
v
vi PREFACE
preparation, “what if” questions that seem these proposals are in striking agreement on
more like fantasizing, and “what if” questions many of the details, including the cortical
that relate to self versus to others. Are they all structures involved (e.g., medial temporal lobe
diff erent? Perhaps not as much as it may seem, and medial prefrontal cortex), the complexity
with all promoting simulations and imagery, of the underlying memory structures, the
and possibly creating “memories” for future way they are encoded, and the reconstructive
situations. way by which they are recalled and used in
• Is prediction-related processing primarily cor- predictions.
tical or subcortical? On the other hand, some chapters might seem
• What are the computational elements involved to contradict each other. For example, consider
in the ability to predict? the issue of whether foresight is exclusive to
• How do neural oscillations help in informa- humans. Th ere seems to be evidence either way,
tion organization for predictions? and the question is whether the fact that rats, for
• How do we learn what we need for subsequent example, show future planning-like operations,
generation of accurate predictions, and such as transitive inference and prediction of
how does error in predictions promote such upcoming positions, implies that they are able to
learning? predict like humans, or similarly but to a lower
• What is the role of language in learning and capacity, or not at all; these demonstrations
sharing future-related information? in nonhumans can instead be interpreted as
• Does the ability for future simulations exist something diff erent than foresight. Other inter-
exclusively in humans, or are we simply unique esting debates include whether the underlying
in the magnitude and level of complexity of computational principles are Bayesian in nature.
our foresight? Such orthogonal proposals are particularly inter-
• What is the role of predictions in emotion, and esting because they show how the same solutions
vice versa? How does the association of past can be reached via diff erent mechanisms and
experiences with aff ective values infl uence pathways.
how we predict and perceive related informa- As much as this collection off ers answers to
tion? Are we as good as we think in predicting important questions, it raises and emphasizes
emotional consequences? If there is a discrep- outstanding ones. How are experiences coded
ancy between our ability to foresee aff ective optimally to aff ord using them for predictions?
states and rewards and our ability to predict What is the mechanism underlying reconstruc-
nonaff ective outcome, what is the source of tion, and how do we construct a new simulation
this discrepancy? How does the ability to plan from separate memories? How specifi c in detail
and simulate futures aff ect our happiness, and are future-related mental simulations, and when
what might be the implications to well-being do they rely on imagery, concepts, or language?
and mental disorder? What is the diff erence in the mechanism and
We learn, encode, recollect, attend, recognize, cortical underpinnings of predictions that stem
evaluate, feel, and act. Th e chapters in this book from sequence memory (i.e., replaying existing
put forth ideas describing the possible inter- memories) and predictions that stem from con-
actions between these rich processes and the struction? What is the role of hierarchies in rep-
mechanisms that mediate them by showing how resentations and in predictions?
they all rely on predictions in their core. Finally, this collection developed from an ear-
Some of the contributions here may appear to lier and shorter collection we had published as a
be describing similar ideas, which is an encour- special theme issue with the Philosophical
aging sign of potential validity. For example, Transactions of the Royal Society B in 2009. Th e
consider the idea that predictions rely on mem- idea to concentrate on the same topic in a book
ory. While it may be hard to think of what other now was meant to achieve two goals: to add
source if not memory can mediate predictions, important and exciting new contributions, and to
PREFACE vii
reach a wider audience that may be interested volume would inspire and steer future research
and stimulated. Th erefore, in the resulting collec- on predictions in the brain.
tion presented here, some are older papers with
either minimal or signifi cant modifi cations, and Th is book was originally published as an issue of the
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological
some are new and complementary in thought-
Sciences (Volume 3 64 ; Issue 1 521 ) but has been materially
provoking and expanding ways. It is hoped that
changed and updated.
the ideas and questions that emerge from this
Moshe Bar
Charlestown, Massachusetts
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CONTENTS
C ontributors xi
1. Varieties of Future Experience 3
Karl K. Szpunar and Endel Tulving
2. The Proactive Brain 13
Moshe Bar
3. Simulation, Situated Conceptualization, and Prediction 27
Lawrence W. Barsalou
4. Architecture of Counterfactual Thought in the Prefrontal Cortex 40
Aron K. Barbey, Frank Krueger, and Jordan Grafman
5. On the Nature of Medial Temporal Lobe Contributions
to the Constructive Simulation of Future Events 58
Daniel L. Schacter and Donna Rose Addis
6. The Construction System of the Brain 70
Demis Hassabis and Eleanor A. Maguire
7. Similarities in Episodic Future Thought and Remembering:
The Importance of Contextual Setting 83
Kathleen B. McDermott, Karl K. Szpunar, and Kathleen M. Arnold
8. Imagining Predictions: Mental Imagery as Mental Emulation 95
Samuel T. Moulton and Stephen M. Kosslyn
9. See It with Feeling: Affective Predictions during Object Perception 107
Lisa Feldman Barrett and Moshe Bar
10. The Somatic Marker Hypothesis and Its Neural Basis: Using Past
Experiences to Forecast the Future in Decision Making 122
Antoine Bechara
ix
