Prediction Models for Incident Clearance Time for Borman Expressway : Final Report

120 Pages·1997·1.5 MB·English

by  Madanat, Samer

SCHOOL OF
CIVIL ENGINEERING
INDIANA
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
JOINT HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROJECT
FHWA/IN/JHRP-96/10
Final Report
PREDICTION MODELS FOR INCIDENT
CLEARANCE TIME FOR BORMAN
EXPRESSWAY
Samer Madanat
Ahmed Feroze
UNIVERSITY

Final Report
FHW
A/IN/JHRP-96/1
PREDICTION MODELS FOR INCIDENT CLEARANCE
TIME FOR BORMAN EXPRESSWAY
by
Dr. Samer Madanat
Associate Professor
and
Ahmed Feroze
Graduate Research Assistant:
Purdue University
Department ofCivil Engineering
Joint Highway Research Project
Project No.: SPR2114
File No.: 8-9-4
(Vol. 1)
In Cooperation with the
Indiana Department ofTransportation and
U.S. Department ofTransportation
Federal Highway Administration
The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors who are
responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The
contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies ofthe Federal
Highway Administration and the Indiana Department ofTransportation. This
report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN 47907
March, 1997

.
-
TECHNICALREPORTSTANDARDTITLEPAGE
1. ReportNo. 2. GovernmentAccessionNo. 3.Recipient'sCatalogNo.
FHWA/IN/JHRP-96/10
4.TitleandSubtitle 5. ReportDate
March. 1997
PredictionModelsforIncident ClearanceTimeforBormanExpressway
6. PerformingOrganizationCode
7.Authors) 8. PerformingOrganization ReportNo.
SamerMadanatandAhmedFeroze FHWA/IN/JHRP-96/10
9. PerformingOrganizationNameandAddress 10.WorkUnitNo.
JointHighwayResearchProject
1284CivilEngineeringBuilding
PurdueUniversity 11. ContractorGrantNo.
SPR-2114
WestLafayette,Indiana 47907-1284
12. SponsoringAgencyNameandAddress 13. TypeorReportandPeriodCovered
IndianaDepartmentofTransportation FinalReport
StateOfficeBuilding
100NorthSenateAvenue
Indianapolis,IN46204 14. SponsoringAgencyCode
15. SupplementaryNotes
Preparedincooperation with theIndianaDepartmentofTransportationandFederalHighwayAdministration.
16. Abstract
Thisresearchconsistedoftwoparts; thisreportis Volume 1 of2 Volumes; Volume2 isReportNo. FHWA/IN/JHRP-96/11
Thefirstpartdeveloped asetofincidentclearance timepredictionmodelsfortheBormanExpressway. Thesecondpart
consistedofmodelingdriver'sroutechoicebehaviorundertheinfluenceofadvancedtravelerinformation systems.
Volume 1 ofthisreportdescribesthe incidentclearancetimepredictionmodelsfortheBormanExpressway. Theprediction of
incidentclearancetime from thesemodelscan facilitate in efficientincidentmanagementandsupport travelerinformation
systems.
Theproductsofthisresearch projectwill be incorporated in the Advanced Traffic Management Systemthat isbeing
implementedon theBorman Expressway, a 16-mile segment of 1-80 in northwest Indiana.
17. Keywords IS. DistributionStatement
Freewaytraffic management; incidentresponse;decision-making Norestrictions Thisdocument isavailabletothepublicthroughthe
system. NationalTechnicalInformation Service, Springfield,VA22161
19. SecurityCiassif.(orthisreport) 20. SecurityCiassif.(ofthispage) 21.No.of Pages 22. Price
Unclassified Unclassified 60
ormDOTF1700.7(8-69)

IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF TABLES
vi
LIST OF FIGURES
vii
IMPLEMENTATION REPORT
viii
Incident Detection and Verification viii
Incident Response ix
Incident Site Management ix
Incident Clearance ix
Incident Recovery ix
Incident Management on Borman Expressway x
Application ofPrediction Models in Incident Management System xi
Building New Relationship with the commuters xi
CHAPTER INTRODUCTION
1 1
Background and Motivation 1
Components ofIncident Duration 2
CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW
2 5
BriefReview ofPrevious Incident Duration Studies 5
Lessons from Literature Review 9
CHAPTER PROBLEM STATEMENT
3 11
Traffic Flow During Incident Duration 12
CHAPTER4 OBJECTIVES OF STUDY 15
Factors Affecting Incident Clearance Time 15
Incident Characteristics 15
Traffic Characteristics 16
Environmental Characteristics 16
Digitized by the Internet Archive
in 2011 with funding from
LYRASIS members and Sloan Foundation; Indiana Department of Transportation
http://www.archive.org/details/predictionmodelsOOmada
Operational/Response Characteristics 16
CHAPTER WORK PLAN
5 19
Estimation ofTruncated Regression Model 21
CHAPTER 6 ANALYSIS OF DATA 23
Overheating Vehicles Incidents Data Set 27
Debris on Roadway Incidents Data Set 28
Crashes Data Incidents Set 28
CHAPTER 7 MODELS ESTIMATION RESULTS 29
Model Building Approach 29
Model Estimation Results 29
Prediction Model for Overheating Vehicle Incidents 30
Prediction Model for Debris on Roadway Incidents 33
Prediction Model for Crash Incidents 35
Discussion on Estimated Results 37
Computer Program for the Prediction ofIncident Clearance Time 38
Data Requirement for the Computer Program 38
CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 40
Systems Approach to Incident Management 41
Recommendations 43
LIST OF REFERENCES 46