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• Why do our headaches persist after taking a one-cent
aspirin but disappear when we take a 50-cent aspirin?
• Why does recalling the Ten Commandments reduce our
tendency to lie, even when we couldn't possibly be
caught?
• Why do we splurge on a lavish meal but cut coupons
to save 25 cents on a can of soup?
• Why do we go back for second helpings at the unlimited
buffet, even when our stomachs are already full?
• And how did we ever start spending $4.15 on a cup of
coffee when, just a few years ago, we used to pay less
than a dollar?
hen it comes to making decisions in our lives, we
think we're in control. We think we're making
smart, rational choices. But are we?
In a series of illuminating, often surprising experi
ments, MIT behavioral economist Dan Ariely refutes the
common assumption that we behave in fundamentally
rational ways. Blending everyday experience with ground
breaking research, Ariely explains how expectations,
emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly
illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities.
Not only do we make astonishingly simple mistakes
every day, but we make the same types of mistakes, Ariely
discovers. We consistently overpay, underestimate, and
procrastinate. We fail to understand the profound effects
of our emotions on what we want, and we overvalue what
we already own. Yet these misguided behaviors are neither
random nor senseless. They're systematic and predict
able—making us predictably irrational.
From drinking coffee to losing weight, from buying a
car to choosing a romantic partner, Ariely explains how
to break through these systematic patterns of thought to
make better decisions. Predictably Irrational will change
the way we interact with the world—one small decision
at a time.
0208
DAN ARIELY is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of
Behavioral Economics at MIT, where he holds a joint
appointment between MIT's Media Laboratory and the
Sloan School of Management. He is also a researcher at the
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and a visiting professor
at Duke University. Ariely wrote this book while he was
a fellow at the Institute for Advance Study at Princeton.
His work has been featured in leading scholarly journals
and a variety of popular media outlets, including the New
York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington
Post, the Boston Globe, Scientific American, and Science.
Ariely has appeared on CNN and National Public Radio.
He divides his time between Durham, North Carolina,
Cambridge, Massachusetts, and the rest of the world.
www.predictablyirrational.com
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Predictably Irrational—it's not what you think.
"A marvelous book that is both thought-provoking and highly entertaining, ranging from
the power of placebos to the pleasures of Pepsi. Ariely unmasks the subtle but powerful
tricks that our minds play on us, and shows us how we can prevent being fooled."
—Jerome Groopman, Recanati Chair of Medicine, Harvard Medical School,
and New York Times bestselling author of How Doctors Think
"Dan Ariely is a genius at understanding human behavior: no economist does a better
job of uncovering and explaining the hidden reasons for the weird ways we act, in the
marketplace and out. Predictably Irrational will reshape the way you see the world, and
yourself, for good." —James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds
"Filled with clever experiments, engaging ideas, and delightful anecdotes. Dan Ariely
is a wise and amusing guide to the foibles, errors, and bloopers of everyday decision
making." —Daniel Gilbert, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and
New York Times bestselling author of Stumbling on Happiness
"This is going to be the most influential, talked-about book in years. It is so full of daz
zling insights—and so engaging—that once I started reading, I couldn't put it down."
—Daniel McFadden, 2000 Nobel Laureate in Economics,
Morris Cox Professor of Economics, University of California at Berkeley
"Predictably Irrational is wildly original. It shows why—much more often than we usu
ally care to admit—humans make foolish, and sometimes disastrous, mistakes. Ariely
not only gives us a great read; he also makes us much wiser."
—George Akerlof, 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics,
Koshland Professor of Economics, University of California at Berkeley
"The most difficult part of investing is managing your emotions. Dan explains why that
is so challenging for all of us, and how recognizing your built-in biases can help you
avoid common mistakes."
—Charles Schwab, Chairman and CEO, The Charles Schwab Corporation
predictably
irrational
predictably
irrational
The Hidden Forces That Shape
Our Decisions
Dan Ariely
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PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL. Copyright © 2008 by Dan Ariely. All
rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this
book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without
written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in
critical articles and reviews. For information, address HarperCollins
Publishers, 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022.
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Designed by Renato Stanisic
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available upon
request.
ISBN: 978-0-06-135323-9
08 09 10 11 12 WBC/RRD 10 9 8 7 6
To my mentors, colleagues, and students—
who make research exciting
