Table Of ContentPRECISION M B COSTS IN SAMPLING SURVEYS
WITH ERRORS BUI TO NON-RESPONSE
bjr
MONROE GILBERT SIHKEN
A thesis submitted In partial fulfillment for the degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTQ
1950
Approved o
Department
Date
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UMI Number: DP16227
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
To the following I wish to express ray appreciation
for having made the writing of this thesis possible:.
Professor Z. W. Blrnbaum, Director of the Laboratory of
Statistical Research and Professor of Mathematics, under
whose supervision I worked upon the mathematical sections
of the thesis and who carefully read and made many sugges
tions in the write-up of these sections; Professor Stuart
C. Dodd, Director of Washington Public Opinion Laboratory
and Professor of Sociology, who placed certain facilities
of his Laboratory under my supervision in three polls so
that I could obtain the empirical data to illustrate the
mathematical procedures in the thesis; and the Office of
Naval Research which provided the grant to the Laboratory
of Statistical Research under which 1 completed the .mathe
matical research and the writing of the thesis.
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i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF TABLES v
Chapter
1 ERRORS IN SURVEYS OF HUMAN POPULATIONS 1
1.1 IntroductIon 1
1.2 A Statement of the Thesis Problem and
a Summary 6
2 A STATISTICAL THEORY OF THE JOINT ERROR DUE
TO NON-INTERVIEW AND TO RANDOM SAMPLING 10
2.1 Introduction 10
2.2 lias and Sampling Error of a
Population with Non-Interviews 12
2.3 Sample Size for Given Precision 18
2.4 A Callback Procedure Minimizing Cost .25
2.5 Summary 28
2A Appendix 30
2.1A Bias Due to Non-Interview 30
2.2A A Biased Statistic; Its Expected
Value and Variance 30
2.3A Sample Size for Given Precision 33
3 THE DESIGN OF THE SURVEY' EXPERIMENTS 39
3.1 Introduction 39
3.2 The Field Procedure 41
3.3 The Sample Design 43
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li
TABLE OF CONTESTS (continued)
Chapter Page
4 MON-RESPONSE IN SAMPLING SURVEYS OF
HUMAN POPULATIONS 45
4.1 Introduction 4-5
4.2 The Results of the Calls 4?
4.3 Callback Rates and Rates of
Non-Response 52
4.4 Non-Response Due to Refusals and
Non-Accessibles 59
4.5 Summary and Conclusions 66
5 THE COMPONENTS OF INTERVIEW COSTS IN
SAMPLING SURVEYS 69
5.1 Introduction 69
5.2 Component Field Costs of Surveys with
Different Numbers of Calls 72
5*3 Component Field Costs per Call 79
5*4 A Comparison of Traveling Costs
Using Private Cars and Other
Means of Transportation 85
5*5 Summary and Conclusions 86
6 A CALLBACK PROCEDURE MINIMIZING THE EXPECTED
FIELD COSTS OF A SAMPLE SURVEY WITH
NON-INTERVIEW BIAS 89
6.1 Introduction 89
6.2 Illustrations of the Callback Procedure 90
6.3 Revised Estimates of S and « upon
Completion of the Survey 98
6.4 Summary 101
6A Appendix 103
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iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Chapter Page
T OPTIMUM ALLOCATION OF FIRST CALLS IN SURVEYS
OF HUMAN POPULATIONS 104
7.1 Introduet ion 104
7.2 Optimum Scheduling of Calls Knowing
the Sex of the Respondents 105
7.3 Optimum Scheduling of Calls Knowing
the'Sex and Residence of the
Respondents 111
7.4 Summary 117
71 Appendix 119
Appendix
A A COMPARISON OF W O METHODS OF DETERMINING
ERRORS MADE BY INTERVIEWERS IM SELECTING
RESPONDENTS 123
A.I Introduction 123
A.2 Errors Made by the Interviewers 125
A.3 A Comparison of the Results of the
Two Check-Up Methods 129
A.4 Summary 133
B FORMS USED IN THE SURVEY EXPERIMENTS 134
B.l Instructions for Filling out Time
Expenditure Form 135
B.2 Time Expenditure Sheet 136
B.3 Instructions for Filling out
Telephoning Time Expenditure Form 137
B.4 Telephoning Time Expenditure Sheet 138
B.5 Letter Left at the Home of
Respondent by Interviewer if the
Respondent Is "Not at Home* 139
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iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Appendix Page
B (continued)
B.6 Letter Sent'With Check-Op 'Card 140
B.7 Follow-Up Letter Sent with
Check-Op Card 1.41
B.8 Check-Op' Card 142
BTBLI001APIY 143
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V
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1 DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME BY TIE GALL IH WHICH
HIE INTERVIEW IS COMPLETED 5
2 % AMD (1 - p) FOR SELECTED VALUES OF 0
FOR €L m , 05 21
3 MINIMUM SAMPLE SIZE n FOR PROBABILITY LEVEL,
«*• .05 22
4 INTERVIEWER COMMENTS ON CALLS 48
5 REASONS WHY PROPER RESPONDENTS AT ROM! ARE
NOT INTERVIEWED 51
6 CALLBACK RATES AID RATES OF NON-RESPONSE IN
JANUARY, MARCH, AND APRIL SURVEYS 53
7 CALLBACK RATES AND HATES OP NON-RESPONSE IF
ANY ADULT II HOUSEHOLD INTERVIEWED 56
8 CALLBACK RATES AND RATES OP NQN-RESPONSE IN
THE THREE SURVEYS 58
9 NON-RESPONSE DUE TO REFUSALS AID
NON-ACCESSIBLES WHIN A RANDOM ADULT
IN THE HOUSEHOLD IS I1TERVIEWSD.. 60
10 NON-RESPONSE DUE TO REFUSALS AND
NON-ACCESSIBLES WIN ANY ADULT
IN THE HOUSEHOLD IS INTERVIEWED 60
11 REASONS RESPONDENTS ARE NGN-ACCESSIBLE 62
12 REASONS RESPONDENTS REFUSE TO BE INTERVIEWED 63
13 COMPONENT FIELD COSTS OP SURVEYS WITH
DIFFERENT NUMBERS OP CALLBACKS 75
14 COMPONENT FIELD COSTS OF SURVEYS WITH
DIFFERENT NUMBERS OF CALLBACKS 76
15 AVERAGE TIME AND TRAVELING EXPENDITURES
PHI INTERVIEW PER CALL 80
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V i
LIST OF TABLES (continued)
Table Page
16 TOTAL AID COMPONENT FIELD COSTS PER INTERVIEW
PEI CALL (COMPLETE TRAVELING PAYMENT) 83
IT TOTAL AMD COMPONENT FIELD COSTS PER INTERVIEW
PER CALL (INCOMPLETE TRAVELING PAYMENT) 84
18' CALLBACK RATES AID COST COEFFICIENTS IF A
RANDOM ADULT IH TUB. HOUSEHOLD IS INTERVIEWED 91
19 CALLBACK RATES AID COST COEFFICIENTS IF ANY
ADULT IN T H HOUSEHOLD IS INTERVIEWED 91
20 EXPECTED COST FOR PRECISION $ , PROBABILITY
LEVEL « .05 AID K CALLS WHEN A RANDOM
ADULT IN THE HOUSEHOLD IS INTERVIEWED 94
21 EXPECTED COST FOR PRECISION <f , PROBABILITY
LEVEL <* * ..05 AND K CALLS WEN ANY ADULT
IN THE HOUSEHOLD IS INTERVIEWED 95
22 PROBABILITIES OF COMPLETING INTERVIEWS BY
HOUR AID DAY OF CALL 106
23 PROBABILITIES OF COMPLETING INTERVIEWS BY
HOUR AND DAY OF CALL AND SEX OF RESPONDENT 109
24 PROBABILITIES OF COMPLETING INTERVIEWS BY
HOUR AND M Y OF CALL AND SEX OF APARTMENT
RESPONDENTS 112
25 PROBABILITIES OF COMPLETING INTERVIEWS BY
HOUR AND DAY OF CALL AND SEX OF
NON -APARTMENT RESPONDENTS 112
A.l RESULTS OP 1311 CARD CHECK-UP 126
A,2 RESULTS OF THE TELEPHONE-PERSONAL INTERVIEW
CHECK-UP 128
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PRECISION AND COSTS IN SAMPLING SURVEYS
WITH ERRORS DUE TO NON-RESPONSE
CHAPTER 1
ERRORS IN SURVEYS OP HUMAN POPULATIONS
1*1 Introduction
In estimating.the prevalent©® of an attribute in a
human population., say, the proportion of individuals with a
certain attitude, by taking a sample, there are numerous
factors that' may cause the estimate to differ from the exact
proportion of individuals with that trait in the population.
The following is a partial list of these faetors based upon a
classification suggested by Deoing:1
1. variability in response
2. bias and variation .arising from the interviewer
3. bias of the auspices
Edwards Deming, **0n Errors in Surveys,” American
Sociological Review, Vol. IX (June 19^), pp. 359“3<o9'.~
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