Power, Institutions, and Leadership in War and Peace: Lessons from Peru and Ecuador, 1995–1998

201 Pages·2012·20.952 MB·English

by  David R. Mares, David Scott Palmer

POWER, INSTITUTIONS,
AND LEADERSHIP
IN WAR AND PEACE
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POWER, INSTITUTIONS,
AND LEADERSHIP
IN WAR AND PEACE
LESSONS FROM
PERU AND ECUADOR,
1995–1998
DAVID R. MARES AND DAVID SCOTT PALMER
University of Texas Press Austin
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Co pyright © 2012 by the University of Texas Press
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
First edition, 2012
Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should
be sent to:
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www.utexas.edu/utpress/about/bpermission.html
The paper used in this book meets the minimum requirements of
ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992 (R1997) (Permanence of Paper).
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Mares, David R.
Power, institutions, and leadership in war and peace : lessons from
Peru and Ecuador, 1995–1998 / David R. Mares and David Scott Palmer.
1st ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-292-73569-9 (cloth : alk. paper)
ISBN 978-0-292-73570-5 (e-book)
1. Politics and war—Case studies. 2. Political leadership—Case
studies. 3. Boundary disputes—Case studies. 4. Politics and war—
Peru. 5. Political leadership—Peru. 6. Politics and war—Ecuador.
7. Political leadership—Ecuador. 8. Peru—Boundaries—Ecuador. 9.
Ecuador—Boundaries—Peru. I. Palmer, David Scott, 1937– II. Title.
JZ6385.M35 2012
355.02—dc23 2011039279
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CONTENTS
List of Maps and Tables vii
Preface ix
1. Introduction 1
Explaining Interstate Confl ict and Boundary Disputes
in Post–Cold War Latin America
2. Two Nations in Confl ict 29
3. Presidential Decision Making 47
The Institutional and Personal Context
4. Domestic Politics and the Push toward War 66
5. The Domestic Bases for Resolution 82
6. Hemispheric Diplomacy and the Politics of a Solution 101
7. Conclusions 126
Lessons Learned, Progress Achieved, and Implications
for Other Boundary Disputes
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Appendix A. Effective Number of Parties 137
Appendix B. Ecuadorean Attitudes toward Relations 139
with Peru (November 1992)
Appendix C. Polling Data on Border Issues (1994–1996) 140
Notes 145
Bibliography 167
Index 181
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LIST OF MAPS AND TABLES
MAPS
North and South America 5
South America 6
Central America and the Caribbean 14
Ecuador/Peru: Demilitarized Zone (1995) 105
Ecuador/Peru: Border Impasses (1996) 109
TABLES
1.1. Boundary Settlements in the Western Hemisphere, 2000–2011 7
1.2. Active Contemporary Boundary Disputes in the 8
Western Hemisphere
1.3. Currently Inactive Contemporary Boundary Disputes 10
in the Western Hemisphere
1.4. Electoral Incentives of Leaders and Hypothesized 16
Institutional Constraints on Leaders
1.5. Hypotheses Relating Leader Characteristics 26
and Institutional Constraints
3.1. Party Switching Rates in Ecuador (1979–1998) 50
3.2. Effective Number of Parties: Peru 53
3.3. Characteristics of Peruvian and Ecuadorean Leaders 64
5.1. Performance Expectations among Likely Voters 85
7.1. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 2005–2009 132
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PREFACE
The origins of this volume go back to January 1995, when war broke out
unexpectedly between Ecuador and Peru. Each of us had been following
developments in both countries for some time and had spent extended
periods in each conducting research and participating in conferences
and programs, among other activities, during repeated visits. Over the
course of our academic careers, we had written extensively on internal
political and security issues in each country and in the wider region. One
result of our long acquaintance with both countries, as well as our work
on U.S. foreign policy issues, was that we already knew a number of the
people who were or would become involved in the dispute as it slowly
worked its way toward resolution. Working separately, starting within
days of the outbreak of hostilities, each of us set out to try to understand
what had happened and why.
After our fi eld research led to several single-authored publications,
we began discussing the possibility of a joint project, realizing that our
individual work on the subject was complementary in multiple ways. Our
fi rst concerted work together occurred while Mares was on sabbatical at
Harvard’s Center for International Affairs and continued over the course
of several years, with meetings at academic conferences and holing up
for a few days at a time at each other’s homes in Boston and San Diego to
work through various parts of the manuscript. Almost inevitably, our ef-
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