Potential Yields of Major Crops for Chinese and Global Food Security Under Climate Change

227 Pages·2022·8.119 MB·English

by  Chengzhi Cai, Wenfang Cao

Chengzhi Cai
Wenfang Cao
Potential Yields
of Major Crops for
Chinese and Global
Food Security Under
Climate Change
Potential Yields of Major Crops for Chinese
and Global Food Security Under Climate Change
·
Chengzhi Cai Wenfang Cao
Potential Yields of Major
Crops for Chinese and Global
Food Security Under Climate
Change
Chengzhi Cai Wenfang Cao
Guizhou University of Finance Southern University of Science
and Economics and Technology
Guiyang, Guizhou, China Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
ISBN 978-981-19-5212-8 ISBN 978-981-19-5213-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5213-5
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature
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Acknowledgements
In late 1980s and early 1990s, I (the first author Prof. Chengzhi Cai) was officially
arranged to work in Guizhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and was dispatched
to mainly stay in the countryside of eastern Guizhou in China to assist local farmers
doing farming. Many farmers there work hard but have hardly ample food to feed
themselves. For instance, the yields of most crops are relatively low in mountainous
Guizhou and local farmers have to cultivate wider farmland than they do in plain areas
to raise their family. One day when I was working together with local farmers in a
rural village to transplant the seedlings of rice in paddy field, and one of the farmers
asked me a problem—‘Could you help us get paddy rice variety of doubled yield so
that we can use half of present arable land to feed ourselves and make money in rest
times?’. This question gave me an epiphany and inspired me to work on approaches to
improving grain production. Albert Einstein said ‘The mere formulation of a problem
is far more essential than its solution’. Therefore, in my acknowledgement of this
book, firstly I should thank that farmer for his above question.
Secondly, I appreciate Editor Yang Chanjuan of China Science Press, and such
kind persons of Springer Nature as Editor Lisa Fan, Managing Director Anil Chandy,
Director William Achauer, Editor Saranya Kalidoss, Editor Naresh Kumar and
Project Manager Gayathri K. Straive, because I will never have any chance to publish
this book in English without their recommendation and support.
Next, I express my deepest gratitude to my parents and siblings, especially my
(past) mother. She was illiterate but enjoyed high reputation in the heart of local
people. Diligence and persistence are the most precious wealth that my mother left
me. These qualities become my mettle to overcome the hardship and difficulty in
my life. My (past) father was pupil-literate, but he always kept calm and patient. In
my memory, he had never beaten his children. My younger sister and three brothers,
they all play an irreplaceable role in my growth and life. The last but not the least
person whom I should thank, is my son-my only child. He always accompanies me
to do running exercise, which enables me to be in a good condition.
I (the second author Dr. Wenfang Cao) grew up in the rapid economic develop-
ment period of China. The great abundance of material offers me a lot of freedom to
v
vi Acknowledgements
pursue the sense of value and fulfillment. My education background is across busi-
ness management, agricultural economies and environmental science in different
countries including China, New Zealand, Italy and the US. After receiving my Ph.D.
degree, I started working as a postdoc fellow in environmental science at Southern
University of Science and Technology. Prof. Chengzhi Cai supervised me during my
master and supported me all the way on my academic career. I ever remembered that
he told me how hard it was during his growth and how some died from starvation.
His determination to focus on potential grain yield touched me and encouraged me
to contribute myself to this amazing research work.
Finally, we appreciate the support provided by two projects of No. [YJSKYJJ
(2021) 125] and No. (GZEA2021082) for the proposed study, and wish everyone in
the world would never suffer from hunger but live in abundance and peace.
Contents
1 Introduction ................................................... 1
1.1 Background of Study ....................................... 1
1.2 Literature Review .......................................... 2
1.2.1 Potential Yields of Six Major Food Crops in the World .... 2
1.2.2 Chinese and Global Food Security ...................... 11
1.2.3 Summary of Literature Review ......................... 13
1.3 Structural Logic of Book .................................... 13
References ..................................................... 15
2 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of Six Major
Food Crops in the World ........................................ 21
2.1 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rice ..... 21
2.1.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National)
Yields of World Rice ................................. 21
2.1.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Rice ....... 23
2.2 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Wheat .... 24
2.2.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National)
Yields of World Wheat ................................ 24
2.2.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Wheat ..... 26
2.3 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Maize .... 27
2.3.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National)
Yields of World Maize ................................ 27
2.3.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Maize ..... 28
2.4 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World Potato .... 30
2.4.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National)
Yields of World Potato ................................ 30
2.4.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World Potato ..... 32
2.5 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World
Soybean ................................................... 32
2.5.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National)
Yields of World Soybean .............................. 32
vii
viii Contents
2.5.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World
Soybean ............................................ 34
2.6 Analyzing Average and Top (National) Yields of World
Rapeseed .................................................. 34
2.6.1 Variation Trends of Average and Top (National)
Yields of World Rapeseed ............................. 35
2.6.2 Distribution of Top (National) Yields of World
Rapeseed ........................................... 37
2.7 Summary of this Chapter .................................... 38
Reference ...................................................... 38
3 Potential Limits of Six Major Food Crops’ Yields Worldwide ....... 39
3.1 Potential Limit of World Rice Yield ........................... 39
3.1.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Rice Yield Based
on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top ............. 40
3.1.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Rice Yield Based
on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its Average
to Top .............................................. 40
3.2 Potential Limit of World Wheat Yield ......................... 41
3.2.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Wheat Yield
Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top ....... 41
3.2.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Wheat Yield
Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its
Average to Top ...................................... 41
3.3 Potential Limit of World Maize Yield ......................... 43
3.3.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Maize Yield
Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top ....... 43
3.3.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Maize Yield
Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its
Average to Top ...................................... 43
3.4 Potential Limit of World Potato Yield ......................... 44
3.4.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Potato Yield
Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top ....... 44
3.4.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Potato Yield
Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its
Average to Top ...................................... 45
3.5 Potential Limit of World Soybean Yield ....................... 46
3.5.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Soybean Yield
Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top ....... 46
3.5.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Soybean Yield
Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its
Average to Top ...................................... 47
3.6 Potential Limit of World Rapeseed Yield ....................... 47
3.6.1 Estimating Potential Limit of World Rapeseed Yield
Based on Individual Trends of Its Average and Top ....... 48
Contents ix
3.6.2 Estimating Potential Limit of World Rapeseed Yield
Based on the Variation Trend for the Ratio of Its
Average to Top ...................................... 48
3.7 Summary of this Chapter .................................... 49
Reference ...................................................... 50
4 Effects of Climate Change on the Yields of Six Major Food
Crops in the World ............................................. 51
4.1 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Rice .......... 52
4.1.1 Effect from Global Warming on Average Yield
of World Rice ....................................... 53
4.1.2 Effect from Global Warming on Top Yield of World
Rice ................................................ 53
4.2 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Wheat ........ 55
4.2.1 Effect from Global Warming on Average Yield
of World Wheat ...................................... 55
4.2.2 Effect from Global Warming on Top Yield of World
Wheat .............................................. 55
4.3 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Maize ........ 56
4.3.1 Effect of Global Warming on Average Yield of World
Maize .............................................. 58
4.3.2 Effect of Global Warming on Top Yield of World Maize ... 58
4.4 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Potato ........ 60
4.4.1 Effect of Global Warming on Average Yield of World
Potato .............................................. 60
4.4.2 Effect of Global Warming on Top Yield of World Potato ... 60
4.5 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Soybean ...... 61
4.5.1 Effect of Global Warming on Average Yield of World
Soybean ............................................ 61
4.5.2 Effect of Global Warming on Top Yield of World
Soybean ............................................ 63
4.6 Effects of Global Warming on the Yields of World Rapeseed ...... 64
4.6.1 Effect of Global Warming on Average Yield of World
Rapeseed ........................................... 64
4.6.2 Effect of Global Warming on Top Yield of World
Rapeseed ........................................... 65
4.7 Summary of this Chapter .................................... 65
References ..................................................... 66
5 Product’s Supply and Demand of Six Major Food Crops
in Major Producer-Countries and the World ...................... 67
5.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Rice in Major
Producer-Countries and the World ............................ 67
5.1.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Rice in Major
Producer-Countries ................................... 68
5.1.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Rice ............ 72
x Contents
5.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of Wheat in Major
Producer-Countries and the World ............................ 73
5.2.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Wheat in Major
Producer-Countries ................................... 73
5.2.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Wheat ........... 76
5.3 Product’s Supply and Demand of Maize in Major
Producer-Countries and the World ............................ 78
5.3.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Maize in Major
Producer-Countries ................................... 78
5.3.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Maize ........... 82
5.4 Product’s Supply and Demand of Potato in Major
Producer-Countries and the World ............................ 83
5.4.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Potato in Major
Producer-Countries ................................... 83
5.4.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Potato ........... 87
5.5 Product’s Supply and Demand of Soybean in Major
Producer-Countries and the World ............................ 88
5.5.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Soybean in Major
Producer-Countries ................................... 88
5.5.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Soybean ......... 92
5.6 Product’s Supply and Demand of Rapeseed in Major
Producer-Countries and the World ............................ 93
5.6.1 Product’s Supply and Demand of Rapeseed in Major
Producer-Countries ................................... 94
5.6.2 Product’s Supply and Demand of World Rapeseed ........ 98
5.7 Harvested Areas of Six Major Food Crops in the World .......... 98
5.8 Summary of this Chapter .................................... 100
Reference ...................................................... 101
6 Projecting Average and Top Yields of Six Major Food Crops
Worldwide by 2030 ............................................. 103
6.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World Rice
by 2030 ................................................... 104
6.1.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields
of World Rice by 2030 Using ARIMA Model ............ 105
6.1.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields
of World Rice by 2030 Using Trend-Regressed Model ..... 111
6.1.3 Comparing the Result of ARIMA Model
with that of Trend-Regressed Model for Average
and Top Yields of World Rice in the Future .............. 111
6.2 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields of World
Wheat by 2030 ............................................. 112
6.2.1 Projecting Average and Top (National) Yields
of World Wheat by 2030 Using ARIMA Model .......... 113