Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy: Implementing Architectures for Agreement

1023 Pages·2010·7.02 MB·English

by  Joseph E. Aldy

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Post-Kyoto International
Climate Policy
The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements is a global,
multi-disciplinary effort intended to help identify the key design elements
of a scientifi cally sound, economically rational, and politically pragmatic
post-2012 international policy architecture for addressing the threat
of climate change. It has commissioned leading scholars to examine a
uniquely wide range of core issues that must be addressed if the world is to
reach an effective agreement on a successor regime to the Kyoto Protocol.
The purpose of the project is not to become an advocate for any single
policy but to present the best possible information and analysis on the
full range of options concerning mitigation, adaptation, technology, and
fi nance. The detailed fi ndings of the Harvard Project are reported in this
volume, which contains twenty-seven specially commissioned chapters.
A companion volume summarizing the main fi ndings of this research
is published separately as Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy:
Summary for Policymakers.
joseph e. aldy is Fellow at Resources for the Future in Washington,
DC. He also served on the staff of the President’s Council of Economic
Advisers, where he was responsible for climate change policy from 1997
to 2000.
robert n. stavins is Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government
at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He
is also Director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program and
Chairman of the Kennedy School’s Environment and Natural Resources
Faculty Group.

Post-Kyoto International
Climate Policy:
Implementing Architectures
for Agreement
Research from the Harvard Project on
International Climate Agreements
Edited by
joseph e. aldy
and
robert n. stavins
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
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Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521137850
© Cambridge University Press 2010
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the
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may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2009
ISBN-13 978-0-511-69111-9 eBook (NetLibrary)
ISBN-13 978-0-521-13785-0 Hardback
ISBN-13 978-0-521-12952-7 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy
of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication,
and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
Contents
Harvard Environmental Economics Program,
International Advisory Board page ix
Harvard Project on International Climate
Agreements, Faculty Steering Committee xi
Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements,
Project Management xiii
List of fi gures xiv
List of tables xviii
List of contributors xxi
Foreword xxxiii
Timothy E. Wirth
1. Introduction 1
Joseph E. Aldy and Robert N. Stavins
Part I Alternative international policy architectures
2. An elaborated proposal for a global climate policy
architecture: specifi c formulas and emission targets
for all countries in all decades 31
Jeffrey Frankel
3. The EU emission trading scheme: a prototype
global system? 88
Denny Ellerman
4. Linkage of tradable permit systems in international
climate policy architecture 119
Judson Jaffe and Robert N. Stavins
v
vi Contents
5. The case for charges on greenhouse gas emissions 151
Richard N. Cooper
6. Towards a global compact for managing climate
change 179
R. Agarwala
7. Sectoral approaches to a post-Kyoto international
climate policy framework 201
Akihiro Sawa
8. A portfolio system of climate treaties 240
Scott Barrett
Part II Negotiation, assessment, and compliance
9. How to negotiate and update climate agreements 273
Bård Harstad
10. Metrics for evaluating policy commitments in a
fragmented world: the challenges of equity and integrity 300
Carolyn Fischer and Richard D. Morgenstern
11. Justice and climate change: the unpersuasive case
for per capita allocations of emissions rights 343
Eric A. Posner and Cass R. Sunstein
12. Toward a post-Kyoto climate change architecture:
a political analysis 372
Robert O. Keohane and Kal Raustiala
Part III The role and means of technology transfer
13. International climate technology strategies 403
Richard G. Newell
14. Mitigation through resource transfers to developing
countries: expanding greenhouse gas offsets 439
Andrew Keeler and Alexander Thompson
15. Possible development of a technology clean
development mechanism in a post-2012 regime 469
Fei Teng, Wenying Chen, and Jiankun He
Contents vii
Part IV Global climate policy and international trade
16. Global environment and trade policy 493
Jeffrey Frankel
17. A proposal for the design of the successor to the
Kyoto Protocol 530
Larry Karp and Jinhua Zhao
Part V Economic development, adaptation, and deforestation
18. Reconciling human development and climate protection:
a multistage hybrid climate policy architecture 563
Jing Cao
19. What do we expect from an international climate
agreement? A perspective from a low-income country 599
E. Somanathan
20. Climate accession deals: new strategies for taming
growth of greenhouse gases in developing countries 618
David G. Victor
21. Policies for developing country engagement 649
Daniel S. Hall, Michael A. Levi, William A. Pizer,
and Takahiro Ueno
22. International forest carbon sequestration in a post-Kyoto
agreement 682
Andrew J. Plantinga and Kenneth R. Richards
Part VI Modeling impacts of alternative allocations
of responsibility
23. Modeling economic impacts of alternative international
climate policy architectures: a quantitative and
comparative assessment of architectures for agreement 715
Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Alessandra Sgobbi,
and Massimo Tavoni
24. Sharing the burden of GHG reductions 753
Henry D. Jacoby, Mustafa H. Babiker, Sergey Paltsev,
and John M. Reilly
viii Contents
25. When technology and climate policy meet: energy
technology in an international policy context 786
Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin, Jae Edmonds, Page Kyle,
and Marshall Wise
26. Revised emissions growth projections for China:
why post-Kyoto climate policy must look east 822
Geoffrey J. Blanford, Richard G. Richels, and Thomas
F. Rutherford
27. Expecting the unexpected: macroeconomic volatility
and climate policy 857
Warwick J. McKibbin, Adele Morris, and Peter
J. Wilcoxen
Part VII Synthesis and conclusion
28. Epilogue 889
Richard Schmalensee
29. Lessons for the international policy community 899
Joseph E. Aldy and Robert N. Stavins
Appendix A: Selected List of Individuals Consulted, Harvard
Project on International Climate Agreements 930
Appendix B: Workshops and Conferences, Harvard Project
on International Climate Agreements 935
Glossary and Abbreviations 939
Index 947