Population, Economic Growth, and Agriculture in Less Developed Countries (Routledge Studies in Development Economics, 23)

188 Pages·2002·0.77 MB·English

by  Nadia Cuffaro

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Population, Economic Growth
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3111 In 1950 the world population was 2.5 billion; fifty years later there
4 are over 6 billion people. This demographic explosion has essentially
5 occurred in the developing areas of the world. The key to under-
6 standing many contemporary development problems that have arisen
7 from this rapid growth is in understanding the relationships between
8 population and the economy.
9 This book offers an analysis of such relationships, encompassing a
20111 review of the major positions in the academic debate. Nadia Cuffaro
1 begins with Malthus and the population implications of the Solow
2 model and then discusses the theoretical background of the less
3 pessimistic (‘revisionist’) positions in the population debate. Part Two
4 considers population growth in relation to agriculture and focuses on
5 technical progress and institutional adjustments. It is argued that
6 simple functionalism leads to a misrepresentation of the problems and
7 that there are many possible adjustment failures linked to the research
8 system, property rights on land and poverty that greatly affect the
9 environmental resource base. Finally the author looks to the future to
30111 consider biotechnology and the challenges for world agriculture.
1 Population, Economic Growth and Agriculture in Less Developed
2 Countries will serve as a useful introduction and reference tool for
3 students, academics and all with an interest in the population debate
4 and development economics.
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6 Nadia Cuffaro is a Researcher at the University of Cassino, Italy.
7 She has also worked as Economist at the United Nations Secretariat,
8 New York and as a Consultant for the Food and Agricultural Organi-
9 zation of the United Nations, Rome.
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Routledge Studies in Development Economics
1 Economic Development in the Middle 12 Regionalization and Globalization in
East the Modern World Economy
Rodney Wilson Perspectives on the Third World and
2 Monetary and Financial Policies in transitional economies
Developing Countries Edited by Alex E. Fernández Jilberto and
Growth and stabilization André Mommen
Akhtar Hossain and Anis Chowdhury 13 The African Economy
3 New Directions in Development Policy, Institutions and the Future
Economics Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa
Growth, environmental concerns and 14 Recovery from Armed Conflict in
government in the 1990s Developing Countries
Edited by Mats Lundahl and Benno J. Edited by Geoff Harris
Ndulu 15 Small Enterprises and Economic
4 Financial Liberalization and Development
Investment The Dynamics of Micro and Small
Kanhaya L. Gupta and Robert Lensink Enterprises
Carl Liedholm and Donald C. Mead
5 Liberalization in the Developing
World 16 The World Bank
Institutional and Economic Changes in New Agendas in a Changing World
Latin America, Africa and Asia Michelle Miller-Adams
Edited by Alex E. Fernández Jilberto and 17 Development Policy in the Twenty-
André Mommen First Century
6 Financial Development and Economic Beyond the Post-Washington Consensus
Growth Ben Fine, Costas Lapavitsas and Jonathan
Theory and experiences from developing Pincus
countries 18 State-Owned Enterprises in the
Edited by Niels Hermes and Robert Middle East and North Africa
Lensink Privatization, Performance and Reform
7 The South African Economy Edited by Merih Celasun
Macroeconomic Prospects for the Medium 19 Finance and Trade in Developing
Term Countries
Finn Tarp and Peter Brixen Edited by Rohinton Medhora
8 Public Sector Pay and Adjustment 20 Contemporary Issues in
Lessons from five countries Development Economics
Edited by Christopher Colclough Edited by B.N. Ghosh
9 Europe and Economic Reform in 21 Mexico Beyond NAFTA
Africa Edited by Martín Puchet Anyul and
Structural adjustment and economic Lionello F. Punzo
diplomacy 22 Economies in Transition
Obed O. Mailafia A guide to China, Cuba, Mongolia, North
10 Post-apartheid Southern Africa Korea and Vietnam at the turn of the
Economic challenges and policies for the twenty-first century
future Ian Jeffries
Edited by Lennart Petersson 23 Population, Economic Growth and
11 Financial Integration and Agriculture in Less Developed
Development Countries
Liberalization and reform in sub-Saharan Nadia Cuffaro
Africa 24 From Crisis to Growth in Africa?
Ernest Aryeetey and Machiko Nissanke Edited by Mats Lundahl
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Population, Economic
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Growth and Agriculture in
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Nadia Cuffaro
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40111 Taylor&Francis Group
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London and New York
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First published 2001
by Routledge
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2003.
© 2001 Nadia Cuffaro
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical,
or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Cuffaro, N. (Nadia)
Population, economic growth and agriculture in less developed
countries/Nadia Cuffaro.
p. cm. – (Routledge studies in development economics; 23)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Developing countries—Population. 2. Developing countries
—Economic conditions. 3. Agriculture—Developing countries.
4. Economic development. 5. Neo-Malthusianism. I. Series.
HB884.C84 2001
304.6′09172′4—dc21 2001019968
ISBN 0-203-10310-6 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN 0-203-16304-4 (Adobe eReader Format)
ISBN 0–415–20290–6 (Print Edition)
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Contents
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3111 List of figures vii
4 List of tables ix
5 Acknowledgements xi
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7 1 Introduction 1
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PART I
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Population growth and economic development 7
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2 Population pessimism 9
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4 Malthus’s theory of population 9
5 ‘Malthusian’ years: the 1960s and 1970s 16
6 The population implications of the neoclassical growth
7 model 19
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3 ‘Revisionism’: theoretical background 27
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30111 ‘Revisionism’ 27
1 New institutional economics 30
2 Population and the environment: local commons 46
3 Population and savings 50
4 Population in recent neoclassical growth theory 52
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PART II
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Population growth and agriculture in less
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developed countries 63
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4 Endogenous technical progress in agriculture 65
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vi Contents
The Boserup model 67
The induced innovation model 76
Food entitlements and the green revolution 84
5 The response of institutions 87
Institutional responses and the success of the green
revolution 87
Property rights on land 93
6 Adjustment failures 110
Cases of failure 110
Research 113
Property rights 117
Poverty 119
7 Environmental implications 123
Land degradation and the Boserup model 123
Toposequences of land use and land degradation 127
World-wide evidence from the Global Assessment
of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) project 128
Appendix 131
8 Future challenges for world agriculture 133
The new research challenges 133
Biotechnology 136
Conclusions 145
Notes 148
Bibliography 156
Index 169
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Figures
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3111 1.1 Population of the world and its major areas
4 1750–2050 5
5 2.1 The Malthus model 11
6 2.2 Population and real wages in Europe, 1200–1830 14
7 2.3 The demographic transition model 17
8 2.4 Population growth rates 18
9 2.5 The dynamics of the Solow model 22
20111 2.6 Dynamics of the Solow model: the growth rate of k 23
1 2.7 Effects from an increase in the saving rate or an
2 improvement in technology 24
3 2.8 Effects from a decrease in the saving rate 24
4 2.9 Effects from an increase in the population growth rate 25
5 3.1 Population and growth in The Rise of the Western
6 World 39
7 3.2 A common property resources game 48
8 3.3 The AK model 53
9 3.4 Human capital and growth 61
30111 4.1 The Boserup model 70
1 4.2 Population pressure and land productivity 73
2 4.3 Population pressure and labour productivity 74
3 4.4 Classification of technical progress: neutral, capital
4 saving, labour saving 78
5 4.5 Technical progress and the innovation possibility
6 curve 80
7 4.6 The Hayami and Ruttan induced innovations model 81
8 5.1 Fertiliser response curves 89
9 5.2 Diffusion of modern varieties 90
40111 5.3 Communal property 97
1 5.4 The evolution of property rights on land 103
21111 5.5 Land distribution and unemployment 108
viii Figures
7.1 Soil fertility stock and agricultural intensification 124
7.2 Private and open access equilibrium with different
cost functions 126
7.3 Revenue maximisation with given L 127
7.4 Population density and severity of soil degradation 129
8.1 Bt varieties 137
8.2 RR varieties 138
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Tables
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4 4.1 Growth rates of population, aggregate demand and
5 production (per cent p.a.) 66
6 4.2 Food supply systems 69
7 6.1 Africa: growth rates of real agricultural research
8 expenditure by country (per cent p.a.) 115
9 8.1 Projected growth rates of population, aggregate
20111 demand and production (per cent p.a.) 135
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