Population Biology of Infectious Diseases: Report of the Dahlem Workshop on Population Biology of Infectious Disease Agents Berlin 1982, March 14 – 19

314 Pages·1982·5.39 MB·English

by  R. M. May (auth.)

Dahlem Workshop Reports
Life Sciences Research Report 25
Population Biology of Infectious Diseases
The goal of this Dahlem Workshop is:
to evaluate what the population biology
of infectious agents implies for control of disease
Life Sciences Research Reports
Editor: Silke Bernhard
Held and published on behalf of the
Stifterverband fUr die Deutsche Wissenschaft
Sponsored by:
Senat der Stadt Berlin
Stifterverband fUr die Deutsche Wissenschaft
Population Biology
of In fectious Diseases
R. M. Anderson and R. M. May
Editors
Report of the Dahlem Workshop on
Population Biology of Infectious Disease Agents
Berlin 1982, March 14 -19
Rapporteurs:
P.EM. Fine' M.P. Hassell, B.R.Levin· K.S.Warren
Program Advisory Committee:
R. M. Anderson and R. M. May, Chairpersons' J. Berger
J. E Cohen' K. Dietz· E G. Knox· M.S. Pereira
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York 1982
Copy Editors: M. Cervantes-Waldmann, K McWhirter
Photographs: E.P.Thonke
With 4 photos, 12 figures, and 14 tables
ISBN-13: 978-3-642-68637-5 e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-68635-1
001: 10.1007/978-3-642-68635-1
CIP-Kurztitelaufnahme der Deutschen Bibliothek:
Population biology of infectious diseases: report of the Dahlem Workshop on Population
Biology of Infectious Disease Agents, Berlin 1982, March 14-191 R. M. Anderson and
R. M. May, ed Rapporteurs: P. E. M. Fine ...
[Dahlem Konferenzen. Held and pub!, on behalf of the Stifterverb. fUr d. Dt. Wiss.
Sponsored by: Senat d. Stadt Berlin; Stifterverb. fur d. Dt. Wiss.] -
Berlin; Heidelberg; New York: Springer, 1982
(Life sciences research report; 25)
(Dahlem workshop reports)
NE: Anderson Roy M. [Hrsg.] Fine, Paul E. M. [Mitverf.]; Workshop on Population Biology
of Infectious Disease Agents <1982, Berlin West>; Dahlem Konferenzen; GT
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or
part of the material is concerned, specifically those of translation,
reprinting, re-use of illustrations, broadcasting, reproduction by photocopying
machine or similar means, and storage in data banks. Under § 54 of the German
Copyright Law, wherre copies are made for other than private use, a fee is payable
to "Verwertungsgesellschaft Wort", Munchen.
© D. Bernhard, Dahlem Konferenzen, Berlin 1982
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1982
The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply,
even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
2131/3014 - 5 4 3 2 1 0
Table of Contents
The Dahlem Konferenzen •.................••...•.•.....••.•. vii
Introduction
R.M. May ...•............•••...••...•.............••..•••••
Impact of Infectious Diseases on Host Populations
Group Report
M.P. Hassell, Rapporteur
R.C. Anderson, J.E. Cohen, B. CVjetanovic,
A.P. Dobson, D.E. Gill, J.C. Holmes, R.M. May,
T. McKeown, M.S. Pereira, D.A.J. Tyrrell •••..•............ 15
Impact of Infectious Disease Agents on the Population
Growth and Geographical Distribution of Animals
J .C. Holmes............................................... 37
The Impact of Infectious Disease on Human Demography
Today
M. S. Pereira.............................................. 53
Transmission: Patterns and Dynamics of Infectious
Diseases
Group Report
K.S. Warren, Rapporteur
R.M. Anderson, V. Capasso, A.D. Cliff, K. Dietz,
F. Fenner, R.N. T-W-Fiennes, Z. Grossman, H. Knolle,
P.G. Mann, L. Molineaux, G.A. Schad, D. Schenzle ••••.••.•• 67
Overall Population Patterns in the Transmission Cycle
of Infectious Disease Agents
K. Dietz.................................................. 87
Transmission Cycles and Broad Patterns of Observed
Epidemiological Behavior in Human and Other Animal
Populations
F. Fenner ..•..•..•.......•......••.••.•..........•...••••• 103
vi Table of Contents
Control of Infectious Diseases
G1"OUp Repo1"t
P.E.M. Fine, Rapporteur
J.L. Aron, J. Berger, D.J. Bradley, H.J. Blirger,
E.G. Knox, H.P.R. Seeliger, C.E.G. Smith,
K.W. Ulm, P. Yekutiel ..................................... 121
Transmission Dynamics and Control of Infectious Disease
Agents
R.M. Anderson ............................................. 149
Practical Problems in the Control of Infectious Diseases
C. E.G. Smith.............................................. 177
Use of Pathogenic Viruses As Agents for the Biological
Control of Insect Pests
L.A. Falcon .•...••...•••...•••.•.••.•....•..•.••..•.•••.•. 191
Evolution of Parasites and Hosts
G1"OUp Repo1"t
B.R. Levin, Rapporteur
A.C. Allison, H.J. Bremermann, L.L. Cavalli-Sforza,
B.C. Clarke, R. Frentzel-Beyme, W.O. Hamilton,
S.A. Levin, R.M. May, H.R. Thieme •..••..•..•..•...•....•.• 213
Co-evolution Between Hosts and Infectious Disease Agents
and its Effects on Virulence
A.C. Allison .••.••••.•••..••.••••.•••..•••••••......••.... 245
Pathogens As Causes of Genetic Diversity in their Host
Populations
W.O. Hamilton •••••..•.•.••••••••.••.•.••••••••..••.•••••.. 269
Glossary ••.•.••.•.•.••.••••.••.•.•...••..•.....•..•..••••. 297
List of Participants...................................... 305
Subject Index ••.••••..••.••.•..•.•.••.•.•••.•.•••.••••..•. 309
Author Index .•••••••.•••..•.••••••••.••.•.•.•.•••••••••••. 315
The Dahlem Konferenzen
DIRECTOR:
Silke Bernhard, M.D.
£:Q~I2?:,!!Q~.:.
Dahlem Konferenzen was founded in 1974 and is supported by the
Stifterverband fur die Deutsche Wissenschaft*, in cooperation
with the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft** and the Senat of
the City of Berlin.
Q12.z~~'!!~~:..
The task of Dahlem Konferenzen is:
- to promote the interdisciplinary exchange of scientific in
formation and ideas,
- to stimulate international cooperation in research, and
- to develop and test different models conducive to more effec-
tive scientific meetings.
AIM:
Each Dahlem Workshop is designed to provide a survey of the
present state of the art of the topic at hand as seen by the
various disciplines concerned, to review new concepts and tech
niques, and to recommend directions for future research.
TOPICS:
The workshop topics (in the Life Sciences and the field of
Physicochemistry) should be:
- of contemporary international interest,
- timely,
interdisciplinary in nature, and
- problem-oriented.
PROCEDURE:
----------
Dahlem Konferenzen approaches internationally recognized scien
tists to suggest topics fulfilling these criteria and to pro
pose members for a Program Advisory Committee, which is re
sponsible for the workshop's scientific program. Once a year,
the topic suggestions are submitted to a scientific board for
approval.
* The Donors Association for the Promotion of Sciences and
Humanities
**German Science Foundation
viii The Dahlem Konferenzen
g~~,!:!~!g~~,!§:..
The number of participants is limited to 48 for each workshop.
They are selected exclusively by a Program Advisory Committee.
Selection is based on international scientific reputation alone
and is independent of national considerations, although a bal
ance between Europeans and Americans is desirable. Exception
is made for younger German scientists for whom 10% of the places
are reserved.
,!~~_Q~~~~~-~Q~~§~Qg-~QQg~:..
A special workshop model has been developed by Dahlem Konferenzen,
the Va.hlem Wolt/v.,hop MadeL The main work of the workshop is
done in four small, interdisciplinary discussion groups, each
with 12 members. Lectures are not given.
Some participants are asked to write background papers providing
a review of the field rather than a report on individual work.
These are circulated to all participants 4 weeks before the
meeting with the request that the papers be read and questions
on them formulated be60lte the workshop, thus providing the basis
for discussions.
During the workshop, each group prepares a report reflecting the
essential points of its discussions, including suggestions for
future research needs. These reports are distributed to all
participants at the end of the workshop and are discussed in
plenum.
g!!!!~!~~,!!Q~:..
The Dahlem Workshop Reports contain:
- the Chairperson's introduction,
- the Background Papers, and
- the Group Reports.
The Dahlem Workshop Reports are available in two series:
1) Life Sciences Research Reports (LS) and
2) Physical and Chemical Sciences Research Reports (PC).
DAHLEM KONFERENZEN, Wallotstrasse 19, 0-1000 Berlin 33,
Federal Republic of Germany
Population Biology of Infectious Diseases, eds. R.M. Anderson and
R.M. May, pp. 1-12. Dahlem Konferenzen 1982. Berl in, Heidelberg,
New York: Springer-Verlag.
Introduction
R. M. May
Biology Dept., Princeton University
Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Old Peasant
Many a man stands living here
That your father, in the nick of time,
Snatched from the fever's burning rage
When he put limits to the plague.
Faust
My father was a good man lost in the dark.
With what enthusiasm, what extravagance-
Yet in his own odd way, in all sincerity-
He brooded on Nature and her sacred soheres!
He locked himself in the black kitchen
With the other adepts; then with interminable
Recipes, compounded incompatibles.
Oh, he is happy who has any hope
Of rising, ever, from this sea of error!
What we don't know is just what we could use,
And what we do know is no use to us.
Goethe: Faust, Part One
(Translation by R. Jarrell (5))
These lines are from the opening scenes of Goethe's great story.
After receiving the veneration of the people as he moves among
them at the fair, Faust confides to his companion, Wagner, that
neither he nor his father had any real understanding of what
2 R.M. May
they were doing when they fought against the plague; indeed,
Faust says, he fears they killed more than they saved. Thus
the stage is set for Faust's contract with the devil, as he
sells his soul in exchange for knowledge. In the closing scenes
of the drama, Faust's last gift to his people is to drain the
marshes around the town -- a fully contemporary public health
measure based on his dearly-bought understanding.
The quest for clearer insight into the workings of disease in
human and other animal populations runs as a theme throughout
the history of biological science. The present time is one of
substantial progress on many fronts. Advances in immunology
and molecular biology are leading to a deeper understanding
of the processes of infection within individual hosts; these
and other advances are leading to new and more effective vac
cines and drugs. Research on the evolutionary ecology and popu
lation dynamics of intermediate vectors sheds light on some
past failures in control programs and is helping in the design
of more effective strategies of intervention. Mathematical
epidemiology provides statistical tools for the reduction and
analysis of data, along with an expanding literature on the
factors governing the transmission and maintenance of endemic
and epidemic infections.
As can so easily happen in our age of increasing specialization,
the cross-linkages between these various fields of endeavor are -
with some notable exceptions -- not as strong as is desirable.
Some of the mathematical literature has taken on a life of its
own, free from data and full of elegant theorems in hopeful
search of a disease. Conversely, some control programs have
been based mainly on intuition, when a more analytic underpin
ning could have been used. In particular, I think it is impor
tant that our increasingly good understanding of the nature of
immunity in individuals be matched with a clear appreciation of
the processes of herd immunity. Even with cheap, safe, and
effective vaccines or drugs, such understanding of immune pro
cesses at the level of the population as a whole is necessary