Policy Agendas in British Politics

254 Pages·2013·1.23 MB·English

by  Peter John

Policy Agendas in British Politics
ComparativeStudiesofPoliticalAgendasSeries
Serieseditors
Frank R. Baumgartner is the Richard J. Richardson Distinguished Professor of
PoliticalScienceattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill,USA
LauraChaques,AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofBarcelona
andresearchfellowattheInstitutBarcelonad’EstudisInternacionals(IBEI),Spain
ChristofferGreen-Pedersen,Professor,AarhusUniversity,Denmark
Arco Timmermans, Research Director, Montesquieu Institute, The Hague, and
AssociateProfessorofComparativePublicPolicy,InstituteofPublicAdministra-
tion,LeidenUniversity,Belgium
FredericVarone,ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofGeneva,Switzerland
The series publishes books on policy agenda-setting dynamics broadly under-
stood.Thisincludes,forinstance,booksdealingwiththepolicyeffectsofagenda
dynamics,therelationshipbetweenthepoliticalagenda,publicopinionandthe
media agenda, and agenda dynamics in relation to particular issues. The series
publishes both comparative books and books dealing with single countries if
these single countries are placed in a comparative context. The books can be
eithermonographsoreditedvolumes.
Titlesinclude:
IsabelleEngeli,ChristofferGreen-PedersenandLarsThorupLarsen(editors)
MORALITYPOLITICSINWESTERNEUROPE
Parties,AgendasandPolicyChoices
PeterJohn,AnthonyBertelli,WillJenningsandShaunBevan
POLICYAGENDASINBRITISHPOLITICS
ComparativeStudiesofPoliticalAgendasSeries
SeriesStandingOrderISBN978–0–230–35977–2(Hardback)
978–0–230–35978–9(Paperback)
(outsideNorthAmericaonly)
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Policy Agendas in
British Politics
Peter John
ProfessorofPoliticalScienceandPublicPolicy,
SchoolofPublicPolicy,UniversityCollegeLondon,UK
Anthony Bertelli
ProfessorofPublicPolicy,PoliticalScienceandLawandC.C.CrawfordChairin
ManagementandPerformanceattheUniversityofSouthernCalifornia.Heisalso
ProfessorofPublicPolicyAnalysisattheUniversityofBirmingham
Will Jennings
ReaderinPolitics,UniversityofSouthampton,UKandResearchAssociate,Centrefor
AnalysisofRiskandRegulation,LondonSchoolofEconomics,UK
Shaun Bevan
ResearchFellowattheMannheimCentreforEuropeanSocialResearch(MZES),
UniversityofMannheim,Germany
©PeterJohn,AnthonyBertelli,WillJenningsandShaunBevan2013
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-0-230-39039-3
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Contents
ListofFiguresandTables vi
PrefaceandAcknowledgements x
1 ThePolicyAgendaandBritishPolitics 1
2 Policy-MakingandBritishPolitics 23
3 MeasuringthePolicyAgenda:Policy,Public
andMediainBritain 41
4 ChangeandStabilityinExecutiveandLegislativeAgendas 55
5 PolicyPunctuations 94
6 StructuralShiftsinBritishPoliticalAttention 114
7 PublicOpinionandthePolicyAgenda 130
8 TheMedia 153
9 BudgetsandPolicyImplementation 168
10 Conclusion 199
Notes 209
References 215
AuthorIndex 231
SubjectIndex 235
v
Figures and Tables
Figures
3.1 NumberofsentencesintheSpeechfromtheThrone 47
3.2 NumberofActsoftheUKParliament 49
4.1 Incrementalisminmacroeconomyinspeechesandlaws,
1945–2008 58
4.2 Focusedadaptationininternationalaffairsandforeign
aidinspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 61
4.3 Punctuationsandfocusedadaptationinattentionto
defenceinspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 63
4.4 Punctuation,focusedadaptationandissueattention
cycleingovernmentoperationsinspeechesandlaws,
1945–2008 66
4.5 Focusedadaptationandissueattentioncyclesin
attentiontolaw,crimeandthefamilyinspeechesand
laws,1945–2008 68
4.6 Focusedadaptationinattentiontohealthinspeeches
andlaws,1945–2008 70
4.7 Issueattentioncyclesinattentiontoeducationin
speechesandlaws,1945–2008 72
4.8 Issueattentioncyclesandfocusedadaptationin
attentiontosocialwelfareinspeechesandlaws,
1945–2008 74
4.9 Incrementalisminattentiontohousingandcommunity
developmentinspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 76
4.10 Issueattentioncyclesandincrementalisminattention
totransportinspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 78
4.11 Issueattentioncyclesinattentiontotheenvironment
inspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 80
4.12 Focusedadaptationinattentiontopubliclands
(territorialissues)inspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 81
4.13 Focusedadaptationinattentiontoagriculturein
speechesandlaws,1945–2008 83
4.14 Incrementalisminattentiontoenergyinspeechesand
laws,1945–2008 85
vi
ListofFiguresandTables vii
4.15 Issueattentioncyclesinattentiontocivilrights,
minorityissues,immigrationandcivillibertiesin
speechesandlaws,1945–2008 86
4.16 Incrementalisminlabourandemploymentinspeeches
andlaws,1945–2008 88
4.17 Issueattentioncyclesinattentiontobankingin
speechesandlaws,1945–2008 89
4.18 Incrementalisminattentiontoscienceinspeechesand
laws,1945–2008 90
4.19 Focusedadaptationinattentiontoforeigntradein
speechesandlaws,1945–2008 91
5.1 Frequencydistributionofannualpercentagechangein
theSpeechfromtheThrone 98
5.2 Frequencydistributionofannualpercentagechangein
ActsofParliament 98
6.1 Likelychangepoints,SpeechesfromtheThrone,
1946–2008 117
6.2 LikelychangepointsinActsofParliament 122
6.A1 ScatterplotofmacroeconomictopicsinActsof
Parliament 128
6.A2 Theposteriormeanandprobabilitiesofachangepoint 129
7.1 Thepublicagendaandproblemrecognition:defence 132
7.2 Thepublicagendaandproblemrecognition:
internationalaffairs 133
7.3 Thepublicagendaandproblemrecognition:
macroeconomics 134
7.4 Long-termchangeandthepublicagenda:crime 135
7.5 Long-termchangeandthepublicagenda:health 136
7.6 Long-termchangeandthepublicagenda:education 136
7.7 Long-termchangeandthepublicagenda:immigration 137
7.8 Patternsinthepublicagenda:labourandemployment 138
7.9 Patternsinthepublicagenda:environment 139
7.10 Patternsinthepublicagenda:energy 139
7.11 Meanlevelsofissueimportancebetween1960and2008 141
7.12 Thepolicy–opinionlink:macroeconomics 142
7.13 Thepolicy–opinionlink:defence 143
7.14 Thepolicy–opinionlink:internationalaffairs 143
7.15 Thepolicy–opinionlink:health 144
7.16 Thepolicy–opinionlink:education 144
7.17 Thepolicy–opinionlink:welfare 145
7.18 Thepolicy–opinionlink:housing 145
viii ListofFiguresandTables
7.19 Thepolicy–opinionlink:immigration 146
7.20 Thepolicy–opinionlink:lawandcrime 147
7.21 AverageMIP-topiccorrelations,bypolicy-makingarena
(1960–2008) 149
7.22 Likelychangepointsinpublicopinion 150
8.1 QuarterlyTheTimesdomesticandinternational
headlines 155
8.2 QuarterlyTheTimespolicyandnon-policyheadlines 156
8.3 QuarterlyTheTimesheadlinesbypolicyarea 158
8.4 Yearlyeconomicattention,media,Speechfromthe
ThroneandActsofParliament,1960–2008 161
8.5 Yearlydefenceattention:media,Speechfromthe
ThroneandActsofParliament,1960–2008 162
8.6 Likelychangepointsforthemedia,1960–2008 164
9.1 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneonthemacroeconomy,1951–2007 172
9.2 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneondefence 173
9.3 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneonlawandcrime 175
9.4 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneonhealth 175
9.5 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneoneducation 176
9.6 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneonsocialwelfare 178
9.7 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneoncommunitydevelopment,planningand
housingissues 179
9.8 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneontransport,1951–1989 180
9.9 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom
theThroneonagriculture,1951–1989 181
9.10 Policyagendasforthemacroeconomy,1951–2007 182
9.11 Policyagendasfordefence,1951–2007 183
9.12 Policyagendasforthelawandcrime,1951–2007 184
9.13 Policyagendasforhealth,1951–2007 185
9.14 Policyagendasforeducation,1951–2007 186
9.15 Policyagendasforsocialwelfare,1951–2007 187
9.16 Policyagendasforcommunitydevelopment,planning
andhousingissues,1951–2007 188
ListofFiguresandTables ix
9.17 Policyagendasfortransport,1951–2007 188
9.18 Policyagendasforagriculture,1951–2007 189
9.19 Frequencydistributionofannualpercentagechangesin
theSpeechfromtheThroneandActsofParliament 190
9.20 Likelychangepointsinbudgetaryexpenditure 192
Tables
2.1 SummaryofaccountsofBritishpolicy-making 37
2.2 Instabilityandstabilityofattentionand
institutions—accountsofBritishpolitics 37
2.3 Instabilityandstabilityofattentionand
institutions—possibleexpectationsofmodelsof
decision-making 38
3.1 UKpolicyagendasmajortopiccodesandabbreviations 42
3.2 SummaryofUKPolicyAgendasProjectdatasets 46
4.1 Summarystatisticsofspeechpolicytopicattentionby
year,1945–2008 57
4.2 Summarystatisticsofactspolicytopicattentionbyyear,
1945–2008 57
5.1 Changeinpercentageattentiontospeechesandlaws 99
5.2 PolicypunctuationsintheSpeechfromtheThrone,
1945–2008 100
5.3 PolicypunctuationsinActsofUKParliament,1945–2008 103
5.4 Typesofpunctuations 106
5.5 Listofidentifiedactpunctuationsbyissue,1945–2008 107
5.6 High-saliencepunctuationsinacts 110
7.1 Summarystatisticsofpublicopinionpolicytopic
percentagebyyear,1960–2008 141
8.1 Summarystatisticsofmediapolicytopicattentionby
quarter,1960–2008 160
8.A1UKPolicyAgendasProjectmediadatasetmajortopic
codes 167
9.1 Summarystatisticsofbudgetaryexpenditureinbillions
bypolicytopic,1951–2007 171
9.2 PolicypunctuationsinUKbudgets,1951–2007 191