Pest Risk Modelling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species

269 Pages·2015·9.18 MB·English

by  Rovert C. Venette

Pest Risk Modelling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species
CABI INVASIVES SERIES
Invasive species are plants, animals or microorganisms not native to an ecosystem, whose
introduction has threatened biodiversity, food security, health or economic development.
Many ecosystems are aff ected by invasive species and they pose one of the biggest threats to
biodiversity worldwide. Globalization through increased trade, transport, travel and tourism
will inevitably increase the intentional or accidental introduction of organisms to new
environments, and it is widely predicted that climate change will further increase the threat
posed by invasive species. To help control and mitigate the eff ects of invasive species, scien-
tists need access to information that not only provides an overview of and background to
the fi eld, but also keeps them up to date with the latest research fi ndings.
Th is series addresses all topics relating to invasive species, including biosecurity surveil-
lance, mapping and modelling, economics of invasive species and species interactions in
plant invasions. Aimed at researchers, upper-level students and policy makers, titles in the
series provide international coverage of topics related to invasive species, including both a
synthesis of facts and discussions of future research perspectives and possible solutions.
Titles Available
1. Invasive Alien Plants: An Ecological Appraisal for the Indian Subcontinent
Edited by J.R. Bhatt, J.S. Singh, R.S. Tripathi, S.P. Singh and R.K. Kohli
2. Invasive Plant Ecology and Management: Linking Processes to Practice
Edited by T.A. Monaco and R.L. Sheley
3. Potential Invasive Pests of Agricultural Crops
Edited by J.E. Peña
4. Invasive Species and Global Climate Change
Edited by L.H. Ziska and J.S. Dukes
5. Bioenergy and Biological Invasions: Ecological, Agronomic and Policy Perspectives on
Minimizing Risk
Edited by L.D. Quinn, D.P. Matlaga and J.N. Barney
6. Biosecurity Surveillance: Quantitative Approaches
Edited by F. Jarrad, S.L. Choy and K. Mengersen
7. Pest Risk Modelling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species
Edited by Robert C. Venette
Pest Risk Modelling and Mapping for
Invasive Alien Species
Edited by
Robert C. Venette
USDA Forest Service, USA
CABI is a trading name of CAB International
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© CAB International and USDA 2015. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may
be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronically, mechanically, by photocopying,
recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owners.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library, London, UK.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Pest risk modelling and mapping for invasive alien species / edited by Robert C. Venette,
USDA Forest Service, USA.
pages cm. -- (CABI invasives series)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-78064-394-6 (alk. paper)
1. Nonindigenous pests--Geographical distribution--Mathematical models. 2. Ecological
risk assessment--Mathematical models. I. Venette, Robert C.
SB990.P55 2015
578.62--dc23
2014035632
ISBN-13: 978 1 78064 394 6
Commissioning editor: David Hemming
Assistant editor: Alexandra Lainsbury
Production editor: Claire Sissen
Typeset by Columns Design XML Ltd, Reading, UK
Printed and bound in the UK by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY
Contents
Preface x
Robert C. Venette
1 Th e Challenge of Modelling and Mapping the Future Distribution and
Impact of Invasive Alien Species 1
Robert C. Venette
2 Mapping Endangered Areas for Pest Risk Analysis 18
Richard Baker, Dominic Eyre, Sarah Brunel, Maxime Dupin, Philippe Reynaud
and Vojtěch Jarošík
3 Following the Transportation Trail to Anticipate Human-mediated
Invasions in Terrestrial Ecosystems 35
Manuel Colunga-Garcia and Robert A. Haack
4 Simulation Modelling of Long-distance Windborne Dispersal for
Invasion Ecology 49
Hazel R. Parry, Debbie Eagles and Darren J. Kriticos
5 Using the (cid:195)(cid:131)(cid:248)(cid:155)(cid:196)(cid:227) Program for Species Distribution Modelling to Assess
Invasion Risk 65
Catherine S. Jarnevich and Nicholas Young
6 Th e NCSU/APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting System (nappfast) 82
Roger D. Magarey, Daniel M. Borchert, Glenn A. Fowler and Steven C. Hong
7 Detecting and Interpreting Patterns within Regional Pest Species
Assemblages using Self-organizing Maps and Other Clustering
Methods 97
Susan Worner, Rene Eschen, Marc Kenis, Dean Paini, Kari Saikkonen, Karl Suiter,
Sunil Singh, Irene Vänninen and Mike Watts
8 Modelling the Spread of Invasive Species to Support Pest Risk
Assessment: Principles and Application of a Suite of Generic Models 115
Christelle Robinet, Hella Kehlenbeck and Wopke van der Werf
vv
vi Contents
9 Estimating Spread Rates of Non-native Species: Th e Gypsy Moth as a
Case Study 131
Patrick C. Tobin, Andrew M. Liebhold, E. Anderson Roberts and Laura M. Blackburn
10 Predicting the Economic Impacts of Invasive Species: Th e Eradication of
the Giant Sensitive Plant from Western Australia 145
David C. Cook, Andy Sheppard, Shuang Liu and W. Mark Lonsdale
11 Spatial Modelling Approaches for Understanding and Predicting the
Impacts of Invasive Alien Species on Native Species and Ecosystems 162
Craig R. Allen, Daniel R. Uden, Alan R. Johnson and David G. Angeler
12 Process-based Pest Risk Mapping using Bayesian Networks and GIS 171
Rieks D. van Klinken, Justine V. Murray and Carl Smith
13 Identifying and Assessing Critical Uncertainty Th resholds in a Forest
Pest Risk Model 189
Frank H. Koch and Denys Yemshanov
14 Making Invasion Models Useful for Decision Makers: Incorporating
Uncertainty, Knowledge Gaps and Decision-making Preferences 206
Denys Yemshanov, Frank H. Koch and Mark Ducey
15 Assessing the Quality of Pest Risk Models 223
Steven J. Venette
Index 235
Th is book is enhanced with supplementary resources.
To access the material please visit:
www.cabi.org/openresources/43946/
Contributors
Allen, Craig R., US Geological Survey – Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research
Unit, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0984, USA. E-mail: allencr@
unl.edu
Angeler, David G., Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of
Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Baker, Richard, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Aff airs, Sand Hutton, York
YO41 1LZ, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Blackburn, Laura M., USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Morgantown, WV
26505, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Borchert, Daniel M., Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory, Center for Plant
Health Science and Technology, Plant Protection and Quarantine, Animal Plant Health
Inspection Service, USDA, Raleigh, NC 27606, USA. E-mail: Daniel.M.Borchert@aphis.
usda.gov
Brunel, Sarah, European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, 21 Boulevard
Richard Lenoir, 75011 Paris, France. E-mail: [email protected]
Colunga-Garcia, Manuel, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan
State University, 1405 S. Harrison Road, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA. E-mail: colunga@
msu.edu
Cook, David C., Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia, PO Box 1231,
Bunbury, WA 6231, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Ducey, Mark, Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New
Hampshire, 114 James Hall, Durham, NH 03824, USA. E-mail: [email protected].
edu
Dupin, Maxime, Previously at: INRA, UR633 Zoologie Forestière, F-45075 Orléans, France.
E-mail: [email protected]
Eagles, Debbie, CSIRO Australian Animal Health Laboratory, Private Bag 24, Geelong, VIC
3220, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Eschen, Rene, CABI, Rue des Grillons 1, CH-2800 Delémont, Switzerland. E-mail: r.eschen@
cabi.org
Eyre, Dominic, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Aff airs, Sand Hutton, York
YO41 1LZ, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
vii
viii Contributors
Fowler, Glenn A., Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory, Center for Plant
Health Science and Technology, Plant Protection and Quarantine, Animal Plant Health
Inspection Service, USDA, Raleigh, NC 27606, USA. E-mail: [email protected].
gov
Haack, Robert A., USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 3101 Technology
Blvd, Suite F, Lansing, MI 48910, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Hong, Steven C., Center for Integrated Pest Management, North Carolina State University,
Raleigh, NC 27606, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Jarnevich, Catherine S., US Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre
Avenue, Building C, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Jarošík, Vojtěch, Lately at: Institute of Botany, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic,
Zámek 1, Průhonice, CZ 25243, Czech Republic.
Johnson, Alan R., School of Agricultural, Forest, and Environmental Sciences, Clemson
University, Clemson, SC 29634-0310, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Kehlenbeck, Hella, Julius Kühn-Institute, Institute for Strategies and Technology
Assessment, Kleinmachnow, Germany. E-mail: [email protected]
Kenis, Marc, CABI, Rue des Grillons 1, CH-2800 Delémont, Switzerland. E-mail: m.kenis@
cabi.org
Koch, Frank H., USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Eastern Forest
Environmental Th reat Assessment Center, 3041 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle
Park, NC 27709, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Kriticos, Darren J., CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601,
Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Liebhold, Andrew M., USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Morgantown, WV
26505, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Liu, Shuang, CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601,
Australia & Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre, Bruce, ACT 2617, Australia.
E-mail: [email protected]
Lonsdale, W. Mark, CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601,
Australia & Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre, Bruce, ACT 2617, Australia.
E-mail: [email protected]
Magarey, Roger D., Center for Integrated Pest Management, North Carolina State
University, Raleigh, NC 27606, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Murray, Justine V., CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship, PO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001,
Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Paini, Dean, CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
& Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre, Bruce, ACT 2617, Australia. E-mail:
[email protected]
Parry, Hazel R., CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship, GPO Box 2583, EcoScience Precinct, Brisbane,
QLD 4001, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Reynaud, Philippe, Anses – Plant Health Laboratory, CBGP, Campus International de
Baillarguet CS 30016, 34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez Cedex, France. E-mail: Philippe.
[email protected]
Roberts, E. Anderson, Department of Entomology, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and
State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Robinet, Christelle, INRA, UR633 Zoologie Forestière, F-45075 Orléans, France. E-mail:
[email protected]
Saikkonen, Kari, MTT Agrifood Research, FI-31600 Jokioinen, Finland. E-mail: kari.
[email protected]
Sheppard, Andy, CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601,
Australia & Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre, Bruce, ACT 2617, Australia.
E-mail: [email protected]
Contributors ix
Singh, Sunil, CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
& Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre, Bruce, ACT 2617, Australia. E-mail:
[email protected]
Smith, Carl, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, Th e University of Queensland, St
Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Suiter, Karl, NSF Centre for Integrated Pest Management, North Carolina State University,
Raleigh, NC 27606, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Tobin, Patrick C., School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington,
Seattle, WA 98195, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Uden, Daniel R., Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, School of Natural
Resources, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68503-0984, USA. E-mail:
[email protected]
van der Werf, Wopke, Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, PO Box
430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Th e Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected]
van Klinken, Rieks D., CSIRO Biosecurity Flagship, PO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001,
Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Vänninen, Irene, MTT Agrifood Research, FI-31600 Jokioinen, Finland. E-mail: Irene.
[email protected]
Venette, Robert C., USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 1561 Lindig Street,
St. Paul, MN 55108, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Venette, Steven J., Department of Communication Studies, Th e University of Southern
Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS 39406, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Watts, Mike, Information Technology Programme, AIS St Helens, PO Box 2995, Auckland
1140, New Zealand. E-mail: [email protected]
Worner, Susan, Bio-Protection Research Centre, PO Box 84, Lincoln University, Lincoln
7647, New Zealand. E-mail: [email protected]
Yemshanov, Denys, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes
Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada. E-mail:
[email protected]
Young, Nicholas, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort
Collins, CO 80526, USA. E-mail: [email protected]