Table Of ContentPerspectives on Global Development 2017
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN A SHIFTING WORLD
Perspectives on Global Development 2017 presents an overview of the shifting of economic activity to developing
countries and examines whether this shift has led to an increase in international migration towards developing
Perspectives on Global
countries. The report describes the recent evolution of migration overall as well as by groups of countries according
to their growth performance. It analyses what drives these trends and also studies the special case of refugees. It
examines the impact on migration of migration policies as well as various sectoral policies in developing countries Development 2017
of origin as well as of destination, and studies the impact of migration on these countries. The report also develops
four illustrative future scenarios of migration in 2030 and recommends policies that can help improve the benefi ts
of migration for origin and destination countries, as well as for migrants.
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN A SHIFTING WORLD
Contents
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Chapter 1. Overview: International migration and development in a shifting world e
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Chapter 2. Shifting wealth: Trends, implications and prospects e
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Chapter 3. Recent trends in international migration iv
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Chapter 4. Key drivers of recent international migration o
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Chapter 5. How public policies affect migration fl ows
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Chapter 6. A new refugee era a
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Chapter 7. The development impact of migration in origin countries e
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Chapter 8. Impacts of immigration to developing countries lo
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Chapter 9. Four possible scenarios for international migration in 2030 e
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Perspectives on Global
Development 2017
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
IN A SHIFTING WORLD
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Please cite this publication as:
OECD (2016), Perspectives on Global Development 2017: International Migration in a Shifting World,
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FOREWORD
Foreword
S
ince its initiation in 2010, the OECD Development Centre’s Perspectives on Global Development
series has investigated the increasing economic weight of developing countries in the world economy,
a phenomenon we refer to as “shifting wealth”. Each edition has examined the effect of this trend on
development, focusing on different policy concerns, from social cohesion (2012) and industrial policy
(2013) to productivity and the middle-income trap (2014).
This edition of Perspectives on Global Development focuses on the issue of international
migration and development in the context of shifting wealth. The report builds on a growing body of
research carried out by the Development Centre that looks at the drivers and impacts of migration in
developing countries, South-South migration, and the interrelations between public policies, migration
and development.
The main purpose of this report is to enrich the debate on migration and development by:
●●highlighting the main trends and drivers of international migration;
●●analysing the impact of migration on developing countries of origin and destination;
●●discussing illustrative potential scenarios on the future of migration;
●●making recommendations to governments in origin and destination countries, as well as to the
international community, about policies that could help to improve the contribution of migration
to development.
PERSPECTIvES ON GLOBAL DEvELOPMENT 2017 © OECD 2016 3
ACkNOWLEDGEMENTS
Acknowledgements
T
he 2017 edition of the OECD’s Perspectives on Global Development was prepared by the OECD
Development Centre under the direction of Mario Pezzini, Director. The team was led by
Carl Dahlman, Head of the Thematic Division, and David khoudour, Head of the Migration
and Skills Unit. The report was drafted by Lisa Andersson, Amandine Aubry, Martha Baxter,
Marcus Böhme, Hannah Bull, Carl Dahlman, Jason Gagnon, Shinyoung Jeon, David khoudour,
Sarah kups, Hyeshin Park and Martin Wermelinger. Significant inputs to the chapters were
provided by Amy Hong, Bram Dekker, Gaëlle Ferrant, Nina Galanska, Sam Mealy, Joanne
Tang and Alejandra Urrea. Statistical assistance was provided by vararat Atisophon and
administrative support by Myriam Andrieux. The report was edited by Meg Bortin and
Stephen Jessel and the Development Centre’s publications team, in particular Delphine
Grandrieux and Elizabeth Nash, turned the draft into a publication. Jill Gaston proof-read
the report. Aida Buendia designed the cover.
The authors are thankful to the speakers of the two experts’ meetings and scenarios
workshops that were organised for the preparation of the report : Rolando Avendano (OECD),
Michel Beine (University of Luxembourg), Richard Black (SOAS University of London), Simon
Buckle (OECD), Lisa Chauvet (DIAL/IRD), Michael Clemens (Center for Global Development),
Jeff Dayton-Johnson (MIIS), Jean-Christophe Dumont (OECD), Ambassador Pierre Duquesne
(OECD), Giovanni Facchini (University of Nottingham), Douglas Frantz (OECD), Yoshifumi
Fukunaga (RIETI), Sarah Gammage (ICRW), François Gemenne (IDDRI, CEDEM), Flore Gubert
(IRD/DIAL), Camilla Hagstroem (European Commission), Nicola Harrington (UN volunteers),
Bela Hovy (UNPD), Dina Ionesco (IOM), Christina Jespersen (UNHCR), Devesh kapur (University
of Pennsylvania), Yevgeny kuznetsov (World Bank), Michelle Leighton (ILO), Thomas Liebig
(OECD), Ramón Mahía (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid), Mathilde Maurel (CNRS, FERDI),
Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University), Erik Melander (Uppsala University), Sandrine
Mesplé-Somps (IRD/DIAL), Jean-Baptiste Meyer(IRD), El Mouhoub Mouhoud (Université Paris-
Dauphine), Rainer Münz (Hamburg Institute of International Economics), Sebastian Nieto
Parra (OECD), Ceri Oeppen (University of Sussex), Çag˘lar Özden (World Bank), Natalia Popova
(ILO), Lant Pritchett (Harvard kennedy School), Guna Sankar Ramasamy kone (Superu),
Gabriela Ramos (OECD), Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics), Ambassador Mithat
Rende (OECD) Cécile Riallant (the Joint Migration and Development Initiative), Markus
Reisle (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation), Jan Rieländer (OECD), Indrajit
Roy (University of Oxford), Marco Salvi (Avenir Suisse), Rachel Scott (OECD), Melissa Siegel
(Maastricht University), Alice Szczepanikova (European Commission), Alessandra venturini
(Migration Policy Center), Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton), Serge Weber (UPEM),
Alan Whaites (National School of Government International), Catherine Wihtol de Wenden
(CNRS, Sciences Po), Andrew Wyckoff (OECD), Theodora Xenogiani (OECD), Hui Xu (Beijing
Normal University), Juan Yermo (OECD) and the delegates from the Centre’s Governing
Board. Many thanks to Raphaël Beziz (YOUMEO), Deirdre Culley (OECD) and Martin Mayer
(YOUMEO) for helping design and moderate the scenario sessions.
4 PERSPECTIvES ON GLOBAL DEvELOPMENT 2017 © OECD 2016
ACkNOWLEDGEMENTS
The team is also grateful to all the speakers who took part in the “DEv talk” seminar
series on migration that contributed to their thinking: Michael Clemens (Center for Global
Development), Frédéric Docquier (FNRS, Université catholique de Louvain), François Gemenne
(IDDRI, CEDEM), Robert Holzmann (University of New South Wales), Dina Ionesco (IOM),
Yevgeny kuznetsov (World bank), Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (IRD/DIAL), Daria Mokhnacheva
(IOM), Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics) and Cécile Riallant (the Joint Migration
and Development Initiative).
The team also gratefully acknowledges written contributions for the report by: Anna
Boucher (Univesity of Sydney), Caroline Caplan (Université Paris Descartes), Michael Clemens
(Center for Global Development), Jean Luc Demonsant (Toulouse School of Economics),
Giovanni Facchini (the University of Nottingham), Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University),
Cécile Riallant (the Joint Migration and Development Initiative), and Soonhwa Yi (World Bank).
The report benefited from helpful comments on drafts from Development Centre
colleagues Federico Bonaglia, Juan de Laiglesia, Jan Rieländer, Linda Smiroldo Herda and
Felix Zimmerman, and colleagues from other directorates: Jean-Christophe Dumont and
the International Migration Division of the OECD Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
Directorate; Catherine Mann and the OECD Economics Department; and Anne-Lise Prigent
and Sue kendall-Bilicki from the Public Affairs and Communications Directorate.
Finally the Development Centre gratefully acknowledges the direct financial contribution
for this report by the Government of Switzerland and the Government of Italy; as well as
the contribution from the EU for the research projects IPPMD and ECLM on migration in
developing countries carried out by the Migration and Skills Unit of the Development Centre,
which are the basis for much of Chapters 7 and 8.
PERSPECTIvES ON GLOBAL DEvELOPMENT 2017 © OECD 2016 5
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of contents
Acronyms and abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Editorial : Realising the potential of migration and development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Global economic development is boosting migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Making migration a driver of development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Chapter 1 Overview: International migration and development in a shifting world . . 27
Summary of key findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Migration and development: A three-pronged approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Preparing for greater migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Roadmap to the report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Chapter 2 Shifting wealth: Trends, implications and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Slower shifting wealth or much slower shifting wealth? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
The challenge is to sustain improvements of livelihoods in the emerging world. . 64
Has shifting wealth affected international migration? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Annex 2.A1. Diverging trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Chapter 3 Recent trends in international migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
History shows that international migration results from push-and-pull factors
affected by policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
The share of migration to developed countries increased significantly from 1995
to 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Concentration of migration has increased over the last two decades. . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Immigration to HI countries decreased after the 2008 economic crisis . . . . . . . . . . 94
Country specificities have a strong effect on the trajectory of migration. . . . . . . . . 96
The gender of migrants and their education level vary across regions and
country categories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
PERSPECTIvES ON GLOBAL DEvELOPMENT 2017 © OECD 2016 7
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 4 Key drivers of recent international migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
An empirical analysis shows how key drivers have affected migration from 1995
to 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Persistent inequalities between countries explain the recent evolution of
migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Economic development boosts emigration opportunities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Annex 4.A1. Results of the different empirical analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Annex 4.A2. Shift share analysis of the growth rate of tertiary-educated emigrants
to OECD countries between 2000 and 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Chapter 5 How public policies affect migration flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Changed migration policies are affecting migration patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Policies not directly related to migration can also affect flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Chapter 6 A new refugee era . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Recent trends in refugee movements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
Demographic and skills profiles of refugee populations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Explaining the patterns of refugee flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Managing refugee crises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
Chapter 7 The development impact of migration in origin countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Emigrants bring many benefits to their home countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
But emigration can come with economic, human and social costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
The impact of migration on development depends upon the policies in place. . . . 201
Sectoral policies also play a key role in turning emigration into development. . . . 208
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
Chapter 8 Impacts of immigration to developing countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
Understanding the economic impacts of immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
Analysing the socio-cultural and environmental impacts of immigration . . . . . . . 230
Policies shape the development impact of immigration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Note. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
Chapter 9 Four possible scenarios for international migration in 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . 247
Forecasting future migration patterns presents enormous problems. . . . . . . . . . . . 248
Scenarios explore different alternative futures for migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
8 PERSPECTIvES ON GLOBAL DEvELOPMENT 2017 © OECD 2016
