Perception and misperception in international politics

465 Pages·1976·12.076 MB·English

by  Jervis, Robert

118102-Jervis
Perception and Misperception
in International Politics
Written under the auspices of the
Center for International Affairs,
Harvard University
Robert Jervis
Perception and Misperception
in International Politics
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
Princeton, New Jersey
Copyright © 1976 by Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey
In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, Chichester, West Sussex
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Pubucation Data
Jervis, Robert, 1940-
Perception and misperception in international politics.
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
1. International relations—Research. I. Title.
JX1291.J47 327'.01'9 76-3259
ISBN 0-691-05656-0
ISBN 0-691-10049-7 (pbk.)
This book has been composed in Linotype Times Roman
Princeton University Press books are printed on acid-free paper and meet the
guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production
Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources
http://pup.princeton.edu
Printed in the United States of America
16 18 20 19 17
ISBN-13: 978-0-691-10049-4 (pbk.)
ISBN-10: 0-691-10049-7 (pbk.)
To Kathe

Contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xii
INTRODUCTION 3
Part I
The Setting
Chapter One
Perception and the Level of Analysis Problem 13
Do Perceptions Matter? 13
The International Environment 18
Compulsion in Extreme Circumstances? 19
Domestic Determinants 21
The Bureaucracy 24
Perceptions, Reality, and a Two-Step Model 28
Chapter Two
External Stimuli, Internal Processes, and Intentions 32
Introduction 32
External versus Internal Sources of Behavior 35
Intentions 48
Inaccurate Predictions about One’s Own Behavior 54
Chapter Three
Deterrence, the Spiral Model, and Intentions of the Adversary 58
Two Views of International Relations and the Cold War 58
Deterrence 58
The Spiral Model 62
Psychological Dynamics 67
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Problems
with Incrementalism 76
Self-Defeating Power 78
Prescriptions 82
Universal Generalizations? 84
Evidence against the Spiral Model 84
Evidence against Deterrence 90
viii—Contents
Deterrence and World War 11; Spiral Model
and World War I 94
When Will Force and Threats Work? The
Decision-Maker’s Choice 96
When Will Force and Threats Work? Hypotheses 100
Perceptions of Intention and Analyses of
What Is at Stake 102
Other Explanations for the Differences between
the Spiral and Deterrence Theories 107
Differences in Values 108
Claims for a Dominant Strategy 109
Dangers of Applying Gradualism to an
Aggressive Adversary 110
Suggestions 111
Part II
Processes of Perception
Chapter Four
Cognitive Consistency and the Interaction
between Theory and Data 117
Consistency: Rational and Irrational 117
Rational Consistency 119
Cognitive-Affective Balance 120
Source-Message Interaction 122
Implications 124
Irrational Consistency—Avoidance of
Value Trade-Offs 128
Assimilation of Information to Pre-existing Beliefs 143
The Impact of Expectations on Perceptions 145
The Necessary Interdependence of
Facts and Theories 154
The Interdependence between Facts and
Theories in Science 156
The Impact of Categorization 162
Different Theories, Different Perceptions 163
The Emergence of New Theories
and Images 165
Cognitive Distortion and Implications for
Decision-Making 172
Failure to Recognize the Influence of
Pre-Existing Beliefs 181
Contents—ix
Excessive and Premature Cognitive Closure 187
Implications for Decision-Making 191
Confidence, Commitment, and Ambiguity 195
Implications for Decision-Making 201
Chapter Five
The Impact of the Evoked Set 203
Evoked Set in the Absence of Communication 203
Communication and Estimating the Evoked
Set of the Other 205
Misunderstandings within a Government: Differences
in Information, Perspectives, and Time Lags 206
Uneven Distribution of Information within
Governments 209
Differences in Evoked Set Caused by Differences
in Concerns 211
Conclusions 215
Chapter Six
How Decision-Makers Learn from History 217
Introduction 217
Lessons as Predispositions 222
Alternative Explanations 225
The Learning Process 227
Organizational Learning 238
Events from Which People Learn Most 239
Firsthand Experiences 239
Some Consequences 243
Alternative Explanations 246
Early Experiences and Generational Effects 249
Generational Effects 253
Alternative Explanations 257
Delayed Impact on Policy 260
Events Important to the Person’s State or
Organization 262
Revolutions 262
The Last War 266
Range of Available Alternative Analogies 270
What Lessons Do People Learn? 271
Impact of Constant Factors 271
Lessons about Specific Actors 274
Reactions to Failure 275