Peace and Security Across the Taiwan Strait (St. Antony's)

236 Pages·2004·0.69 MB·English

by  Steve Tsang

Peace and Security Across
the Taiwan Strait
Edited by
Steve Tsang
St Antony’s Series
GeneralEditor: Richard Clogg(1999–), Fellow of St Antony’s College, Oxford
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Peace and Security Across
the Taiwan Strait
Edited by
Steve Tsang
Louis Cha Senior Research Fellow, and
University Reader in Politics
St Antony’s College
Oxford
in association with
St Antony’s College,
Oxford
Editorial Matter and Selection and Chapters 1 and 10 © Steve Tsang 2004
Chapters 2–9 © Palgrave Macmillan Ltd 2004
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this
publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted
save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the
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First published 2004 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
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ISBN 1–4039–3519–X
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A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Peace and security across the Taiwan Strait/ edited by Steve Tsang.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1–4039–3519–X (cloth)
1. Taiwan–Foreign relations–China. 2. China–Foreign relations–Taiwan.
3. Taiwan–International status. I.Tsang, Steve Yui-Sang, 1959–
JZ1720.P43 2001
327.5124’9051–dc22 2003066380
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04
Printed and bound in Great Britain by
Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham and Eastbourne
Contents
List of Tables and Figures viii
List of Abbreviations ix
Preface and Acknowledgements xi
Notes on the Contributors xiii
1 War or Peace Across the Taiwan Strait 1
Steve Tsang
Origins of the Taiwan question 1
Status quo for ever? 4
The international context 9
In search of a peaceful solution 13
2 Structure and Process Behind Beijing’s Policy
Towards Taiwan 19
Bin Yu
Introduction 19
Policy-making for Taiwan affairs: structure and interaction 20
Implications 24
Case study: living with Chen Shui-bian 32
3 Driving Forces Behind Taipei’s Mainland Policy 45
Chi Su
The policy 45
The context 50
The ideas 58
The institutions 64
The players 67
Conclusion 73
4 China’s Bottom Line and Incentives for a Peaceful
Solution 77
Suisheng Zhao
Chinese nationalist sentiment and the Taiwan issue 78
A two-pronged strategy 81
A wait-and-see policy 84
Conclusion 93
v
vi Contents
5 Taiwan’s Bottom Line 99
Jiann-fa Yan
The rise of China and the US ‘con-gagement’ policy 99
The prospects of co-existence between Taiwan
and China 102
Taiwan’s challenges 105
Conclusions and prospect 108
6 The Role of the United States in Seeking a
Peaceful Solution 111
Alan D. Romberg
Introduction 111
Origins of the American role in Taiwan 115
The Nixon/Kissinger opening 118
Dealing with Lee Teng-hui 120
Chen Shui-bian arrives on the scene 122
Come the Bush administration 123
Current trends 126
Thinking about American policy in the period ahead 130
7 China’s Ability To Take a Military Option and Its
Calculations 144
June Teufel Dreyer
China’s conditions for the use of force 144
The American factor 148
Military options 149
Taiwan’s ability to defend itself 156
Calculations behind the use of force 161
8 The Alternative to Peace: War Scenarios 168
Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang
Three levels of full-scale invasion 170
Level A: air attack 172
Level B: blockade 183
Level C: amphibious and airborne operations 184
Residual issues in war scenario 185
9 Peace Proposal One: The China Commonwealth
Model 189
Tai-chun Kuo and Ramon H. Myers
Why have Taiwan Strait negotiations been frozen? 189
Can there be a peaceful resolution to the deadlock? 190
A China Commonwealth 192
Contents vii
Creating a China Commonwealth 193
Conclusion 193
10 Peace Proposal Two: The Chinese Union Model 195
Steve Tsang
Crux of the matter 195
A proposal for peace 198
Index 209
List of Tables and Figures
Table 3.1 A comparison between the DPP resolution on 48
Taiwan’s future and Lee Teng-hui’s ‘special
state-to-state relationship’ statement
Table 3.2 Taiwan’s election (1988–2002) 52
Table 3.3 National day speeches (1988–2001) 72
Table 8.1a PRC’s main foreign weapon systems/platforms 174
acquired between 1990 and 2001
Table 8.1b PRC’s indigenous advanced weapon system 177
development
Table 8.2 PLA MRBM/SRBMs/LACMs in service and 180
under development
Figure 2.1 Foreign defence and Taiwan policy-making – 22
institutions, individuals and interactions
Figure 2.2 Five levels of the PRC policy-making structures 25
Figure 3.1 Whether to develop foreign or cross-Strait relations 55
as priority
Figure 3.2 If developing foreign ties led to rising tension on 56
cross-Strait relations, would you agree with such
an effort?
Figure 3.3 Chinese/Taiwanese identity (1991–2000) 60
Figure 3.4 Chinese/Taiwanese identity (1994–2000) 61
Figure 3.5 Chinese/Taiwanese identity (1989–2001) 61
Figure 3.6 Unification or independence? 62
viii
List of Abbreviations
ABC American Broadcasting Corporation
ARATS Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait
ASCM Anti-ship cruise missile
ASW Anti-submarine warfare
AWACS Airborne warning and control system
C4ISR Command, control, communications, computers,
intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
CASS Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
CCP Chinese Communist Party
CCP-CMC Central Military Commission of the CCP
CEIB Communications, Electronics and Information
Bureau
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
CPPCC Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference
CCPCC-GO General Office of the CCP’s Central Committee
CCP-CFA-LSG Central Foreign Affairs Leading Small Group
CMC Central Military Commission (of the PRC)
DoD Department of Defense (US Government)
DPP Democratic Progressive Party
ECM Electro countermeasure
ECCM Electro counter countermeasure
EMP Electro-magnetic pulse
FSU Former Soviet Union
HARM High speed anti-radiation missiles
HDW Howaldswerke-Deutsche Werft
IDF Indigenous Defence Fighter
IO/IW Information operations and information warfare
JDAM Joint direct attack munitions
JFK John F. Kennedy
KMT Kuomintang
LY Legislative Yuan
MAC Mainland Affairs Council
MND Ministry of National Defence
MRBM Medium range ballistic missile
NAD Naval Area Defense (US)
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NSA National Security Agency (US)
NSB National Security Bureau
ix