Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning

248 Pages·2004·24.729 MB·English

by  Martin Rees

ALLENCOUNTYPUBLICLIBRAI
3 1833 04341 6095
1
A SCIENTIST'S WARNING:
HOW TERROR, ERROR, AND ENVIRONMENTAL
DISASTER THREATEN HUMANKIND'S FUTURE
MB
IN THIS CENTURY^ON EARTH BEVMIB
us
:an
A SCIENTIST KNOWN
for unra^
plexities of the universe, Sir Martin Rees now warns
that humankind is potentially the maker of its own
—
demise and the demise of the cosmos. With clarity
and precision, Rees maps out the ways technology
could destroy our species and thereby foreclose the
potential ofa living universe whose evolution has just
begun.
Rees forecasts that the odds are no better than
<
fifty-fifitythathumankindwill survive to the endofthe
twenty-first century. Science is advancing at an exhila-
rating rate, but with a dark side: Our increasingly Q
interconnectedworld isvulnerableto newrisks, "bio" or
"cyber," terror or error. The dangers from twenty-first
century technology could be graver and more
intractable than the threat ofnuclear devastation that
we faced for decades. And human-induced pressures
on the global environment may engender higher risks ^^i*«*^^
than the age-old hazards of earthquakes, eruptions,
and asteroid impacts.
Rees explores the startling scenarios that science
and technology have made possible or even likely. We
could be wiped out by lethal "engineered" airborne
viruses, or by rogue nano-machines that replicate cata-
strophicaJly. Experiments that crash together atomic
nuclei could start a chain reaction thaterodes all atoms
ofEarth, or could even tear the fabric ofspace itself
Bioterror or bioerror could kill a m="-'- - 'e within
twenty years. But as Rees so el veals, it
would be nearly impossible to :se risks
without encroaching on cherishe. reedoms
and the pursuit ofscientific know
(continued on bar
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OUR HOUR
FINAL
OTHER BOOKS BY MARTIN REES INCLUDE
Gravity^sFatalAttraction: Black Holes in the Universe
withMitchell Begelman
Before the Beginnijig: Our Universea?id Others
JiistSixNumbers: The Deep Forces
That Shape the Universe
Our CosmicHabitat
OUR HOUR
FINAL
A Scientist's Warning:
How and
Terror, Error,
Environmental Disaster
Threaten Humanl<.ind's Future
—
in This Century
On Earth and Beyond
Martin Rees
BBASIC
BOOKS
AMemberofthe Perseus BooksGroup
—
©
Copyright 2003 byMartin Rees
PublishedbyBasicBooks,
AMemberofthePerseusBooksGroup
Allrightsreserved. Printed in the United StatesofAmerica. Nopartof
this bookmaybe reproduced in anymannerwhatsoeverwithoutwritten
permission exceptin the caseofbriefquotationsembodiedin critical articles
andreviews. Forinformation, address BasicBooks, 387 ParkAvenue South,
NewYork,NY 10016
DesignbyJane Raese
Textsetin 11 pointJanson
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-Publication Data
Rees,Martin 1942-
J.,
Ourfinalhour: Ascientist'swarning: Howterror, error, and
environmentaldisasterthreatenhumankind'sfutureinthiscentury
on Earth andbeyond/Martin Rees.
p. cm. '
Includesbibliographical references and index.
ISBN0-465-06862-6 (alk. paper)
— —
I. Twenty-firstcentury Forecasts. 2. Disasters Forecasts.
3. Endoftheworld, i.Title.
CB161.R38 2003
303.49'o9'o5—dc2i
2003000301
03 0405 06/ 109 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 I
5
.
CONTENTS
Preface, vii
1. Prologue, I
2 Technology Shock, 9
3. The Doomsday Clock: Have We Been Luck\^
to Sunive This Long? 2
4. Post-2000 Threats: Terror and Error, 41
5. Perpetrators and Palliatives, 61
6. Slowing Science Down? 73
7. Baseline Natural Hazards: Asteroid Impacts, 89
8. Human Threats to Earth, 99
9. Extreme Risks: APascalianWager, 115
10. The Doomsday Philosophers, 135
11. The End ofScience? 141
12. Does Our Fate Have Cosmic Significance? 157
vi Contents
13. Beyond Earth, 169
14. Epilogue, 185
Notes, 189
Index, 209