Order of East Asia: Regional Transformation, Competition among Main Powers, and China’s Strategy

287 Pages·2020·3.759 MB·English

by  Honghua Men

Honghua Men
Order
of East Asia
Regional Transformation, Competition
among Main Powers, and China’s
Strategy
Order of East Asia
Honghua Men
Order of East Asia
Regional Transformation, Competition
’
among Main Powers, and China s Strategy
123
Honghua Men
Schoolof Political Science
andInternational Relations
TongjiUniversity
Shanghai, China
Thisbookistheresultofproject“ProspectsforEastAsianIntegration:RegionalOrderand
China’sStrategy”(No.08BGJ018)supportedbytheNationalSocialScienceFoundationof
China.
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Dedicated to My Wife, Prof. Xi Xiao (肖晞)
Contents
1 Introduction Strategic Significance of Studying East Asian
Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 The Importance of East Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 Process of East Asian Cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3 Strategic Game and Evolution of East Asian Order. . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.4 China’s Peaceful Development and the Future
of East Asian Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2 Logic of Regional Order Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.1 Order, International Order and Regional Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.2 Historical Evolution of International Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.3 New Features of the Change in International Order . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.4 Logic of Regional Order Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.4.1 Journey of Regional Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.4.2 Upsurge of Regionalism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.4.3 Logic of Regional Order Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3 Historical Legacy of East Asian Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
3.1 China and the Tributary Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.2 The US and the Open Door Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.3 Japan and the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere Scheme . . . 72
3.4 The US and the Hegemonic Security Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.5 Japan and the Flying Geese Economic Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.6 ASEAN and the Sub-regional Community Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3.7 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
vii
viii Contents
4 Momentum and Prospects for East Asian Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
4.1 East Asian Economic Integration Process and Its Spillover
Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.1.1 East Asian Economic Integration Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.1.2 Institutionalization of East Asian Integration . . . . . . . . . . . 115
4.1.3 Model and Path of East Asian Cooperation. . . . . . . . . . . . 119
4.1.4 Competition and Challenges in East Asian Cooperation. . . 121
4.2 China’s Overall Rise and Integration into East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 125
4.2.1 Historical Process of China’s Rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
4.2.2 Path and Process of China’s Integration into East Asia . . . 128
4.2.3 A Rising China’s Impact on and Contribution to East
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
4.3 Spillover Effects and Limitations of the ASEAN Norms . . . . . . . . 135
4.3.1 Creating ARF to Promote the ASEAN Way . . . . . . . . . . . 137
4.3.2 Promoting “10 + 1” and “10 + 3” to Lead Regional
Economic Cooperation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
4.3.3 Creating EAS to Boost Regional Political Cooperation . . . 144
4.3.4 ASEAN’s Effort to Ensure Leadership and Its Dilemma. . . 146
4.4 Evolution and Adjustment of the US Strategy Towards
East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
4.4.1 Evolution of the US Strategy Towards East Asia. . . . . . . . 150
4.4.2 Inertia of the US Strategy Towards East Asia . . . . . . . . . . 156
4.4.3 Effect of the US Strategic Shift Eastward in East Asia. . . . 160
4.5 Japan’s East Asia Scheme and Strategic Direction . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
4.5.1 Japan’s Conception of East Asian Community . . . . . . . . . 167
4.5.2 Japan’s FTA Strategy Direction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
4.5.3 Japan’s Strategic Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
4.5.4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
4.6 Prospects for East Asian Order Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
4.6.1 Status Quo and Dilemma of East Asian Order
Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
4.6.2 Foundation for East Asian Order Construction. . . . . . . . . . 187
4.6.3 Path of East Asian Order Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
5 China’s Strategy Towards East Asian Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
5.1 China’s National Positioning and Strategic Direction . . . . . . . . . . 203
5.1.1 Institutional Positioning: A New-Type Socialist Power . . . 204
5.1.2 Economic Positioning: A Developing Power . . . . . . . . . . . 206
5.1.3 Cultural Positioning: A Great Power with Rich Cultural
Legacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
5.1.4 Political Positioning: A Responsible Power. . . . . . . . . . . . 212
5.1.5 Strategic Positioning: An Asia-Pacific Power with Great
Global Influence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Contents ix
5.1.6 Strategic Design: Building China’s National Strategic
System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
5.1.7 Several Notable Key Points for China’s Grand Strategy. . . 222
5.2 Framework of China’s Strategy Towards East Asian Order. . . . . . 225
5.2.1 China’s View of International Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
5.2.2 Development of China’s East Asia Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . 229
5.2.3 Basic Framework of China’s Strategy Towards East
Asian Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
5.3 Interaction Between China and Major Forces in East Asia . . . . . . 242
5.3.1 Actively Build New-Type Major Power Relations
Between China and the US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
5.3.2 Stabilize and Develop Sino-Japanese Relationship
at the Right Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
5.3.3 Comprehensively Enhance China-ASEAN Strategic
Ties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
5.3.4 Comprehensively Deepen the China–South Korea
Strategic Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
List of Figures
Fig. 3.1 Japan-led flying geese economic order in East Asia.
Source Kwan [2].. .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 88
Fig. 3.2 Industrialdynamicmodeloftheflyinggeese economicorderin
Asia. Source Kwan [2]. ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 90
Fig. 4.1 Proportion of the US investment in East Asia (1992–2012).
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.NoteThehistoricalstockchangecalculatedwiththe
data of balance of international payments.... .... .... ..... .. 157
Fig. 4.2 Percentage of Japan’s GDP in the world economy
(1990–2013). Source http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.
GDP.MKTP.CD .. .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 166
Fig. 4.3 Percentage of Japan’s foreign trade in the world economy
(1990–2013). Source http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.
EXP.GNFS.ZS/countries; http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/
WSDBCountryPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=JP. ..... .. 167
Fig. 5.1 Comparison of GDP between China and the US (1988–2012).
Source World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator/NY.
GDP.MKTP.CD .. .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 244
Fig. 5.2 Comparison offoreign trade between China and the US
(1988–2011).SourceWorldBank,http://data.worldbank.org.cn/
indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD, http://data.worldbank.org.cn/
indicator/all.. .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 245
Fig. 5.3 Comparison of defense expenditure between China and the
US (1989–2012). Source SIPRI Military Expenditure Database
2012, http://milexdata.sipri.org .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 245
Fig. 5.4 Percentage of trade with China in Japan’s foreign trade
(1979–2012). Source The Ministry of Finance (MOF)
of Japan .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 255
xi
xii ListofFigures
Fig. 5.5 Percentage of investment in China in Japan’s total foreign
investment (1978–2012). Source The Japan External Trade
Promotion Agency (JETRO). Note Regarding theforeign direct
investment, the 1978–2004 data is based on the corporate
reportingstatisticspublishedbytheMinistryofFinance,andthe
2005–2012 data is based on the statistics from the balance of
internationalpayments.Andtheformeristhefiscalyearandthe
latter is the calendar year. In 1978, Japan did not invest
in China .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 255
Fig. 5.6 Proportion of trade with China in ASEAN’s overall foreign
trade (1992–2012). Source China Statistical Yearbook,
per year. .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .. 260