Oil Wealth and the Poverty of Politics: Algeria Compared

251 Pages·2009·1.47 MB·English

by  Miriam R. Lowi

Oil Wealth and the Poverty of Politics
How can we make sense of Algeria’s post-colonial experience – the
tragedyofunfulfilledexpectations,thedescentintoviolence,theresur-
gence of the state? Oil Wealth and the Poverty of Politics explains why
Algeria’s domestic political economy unraveled from the mid-1980s,
andhowtheregimeeventuallymanagedtoregainpowerandhegemony.
MiriamR.Lowiarguestheimportanceofleadershipdecisionsforpolitical
outcomes,andextendstheargumenttoexplainthevariationinstability
in oil-exporting states following economic shocks. Comparing Algeria
withIran,Iraq,Indonesia,andSaudiArabia,sheaskswhysomestates
break down and undergo regime change, while others remain stable,
or manage to re-stabilize after a period of instability. In contrast with
exclusivelystructuralistaccountsoftherentierstate,thisbookdemon-
stratesthatpoliticalstabilityisafunctionofthewayinwhichstructureand
agencycombine.
Miriam R.Lowi is Professor of Political Science at The College of
NewJersey.HerpreviouspublicationsincludeWaterandPower:thePolitics
ofaScarceResourceintheJordanRiverBasin(CambridgeUniversityPress,
1993)andEnvironmentandSecurity:DiscoursesandPractices(2000).
CambridgeMiddleEastStudies32
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CharlesTripp(generaleditor)
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F.GregoryGause
YezidSayigh
AviShlaim
JudithE.Tucker
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Oil Wealth and the
Poverty of Politics
Algeria Compared
Miriam R. Lowi
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©MiriamR.Lowi2009
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Firstpublished2009
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For Jazia and Ismael, with love

Contents
Listoftables pageviii
Listoffigures ix
Preface xi
PartI Introduction 1
1 Oilshocksandthechallengetostates 3
2 Naturalresourcesandpoliticalinstability 27
PartII Algeriaanditsdiscontents 45
3 Fromconquesttoindependence 47
4 Theelaborationofasystem 74
5 Fromboomtobust,and…vergingonbreakdown 102
6 Thepersistenceofviolenceandtheprocessof
re-equilibration 126
PartIII Comparisonsandconclusions 145
7 Variationsonatheme:comparatorsintheMuslim
world 147
8 Conclusions:oilwealthandthepovertyofpolitics 177
Bibliography 192
Index 222
vii
Tables
1.1 Sampleofoil-exportingstates:changestopercapita
GDPfollowingpriceshock page6
1.2 ImpactofeconomicdownturnsinAlgeriaandthe
comparators 19
4.1 Algeria:nethydrocarbonrentpercapita($) 86
4.2 OilrevenuesofselectOPECcountries(US$billions) 89
5.1 Algeria:evolutionofhydrocarbonrent 114
5.2 Algeria:debtserviceratio 114
5.3 Algeria:GDPgrowthrate(%) 114
5.4 Algeria:selectsocialandeconomicindicators 115
6.1 Algeria:phasesofviolence 128
7.1 Iran:economicindicators,1975–9 163
7.2 Socio-economiceffectsonIraqofwarwithIran,1980–8 169
7.3 Indonesia:economicdata,1985/6and1995/6 171
viii
Figures
MapofAlgeria pagexx
Figure1.1 Majoreventsandrealworldoilprices,1970–2005 24
Figure7.1 OilpricesperbarrelinUSdollars,1970–2005 168
ix