Official PDF , 166 pages

166 Pages·2001·12.24 MB·English

by  World Bank Group

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utut ReportN o. 21104-BD
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December 19, 2000
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PP Document of the World Bank
CURRENCY AND EQUIVALENT UNITS
(March 2001)
Bangladeshi Taka 1 = US$0.0183993
US$1 = Tk. 53.85
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES
1 meter (m) = 1.1 yards (yd)
1 kilometer (km) = 0.61 mile (mi)
1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres (ac)
UNITS
cr crore (10 million)
ha hectare
km kilometers
kg kilogram
lakh 100,000
mt metric ton
qtl quintal (100 kg)
Tk Taka
Vice President Mieko Nishimizu
Country Director Frederick T. Temple
Sector Director Ridwan Ali
Task Leader Sarwat Chowdhury
Abbreviations
ADAB Association of DevelopmentA gencies in Bangladesh
ADB Asian DevelopmentB ank
ALGAS Asia Least-costG reenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy
ARMP Agricultural Research ManagementP roject
BARC Bangladesh AgricultureR esearch Council
BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
BCAS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies
BEMP Bangladesh EnvironmentM anagementP rogram
BIDS Bangladesh Institute of DevelopmentS tudies
BIWTA Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority
BUET Bangladesh Universityo f Engineeringa nd Technology
BUP Bangladesh UnnayanP arishad
BWDB Bangladesh Water DevelopmentB oard
CBO Community Based Organization
CCC Climate Change Committee
CCIA Climate Change Impact Assessment
CEARS Centre for Environmentala nd ResourceS tudies
CEN Coalition of EnvironmentalN GOs
DAE Department for AgricultureE xtension
DMB Disaster ManagementB ureau
DF Departmnenot f Forest
DOF Department of Fisheries
EGIS Environmenta nd Geographical InformationS ystems
EIA EnvironmentalI mpact Assessment
ENSO El Niflo SouthernO scillation
FAP Flood Action Plan
FCDI Flood Control Drainage and Irrigation
FEJB Forum of EnvironmentalJ ournalistso f Bangladesh
GBM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna
GCM General CirculationM odel
GDA Ganges Development Area
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEF Global EnviromnentF acility
GNP Gross National Product
GOB Government of Bangladesh
HTW Hand Tubewell
HYV High-yield Variety
ICDDRB InternationalC entre for Diarrhoeal DiseaseR esearch
ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management
IPCC IntergovernmentalP anel on Climate Change
IRRI InternationalR ice Research Institute
IWRM Integrated Water ResourcesM anagement
LGED Local Government Engineering Department
Mha Million Hectares
Mint Million Metric Tons
MoEF Ministry of Environment and Forests
MOI Ministry of Information
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MPO Master Plan Organization
NARS National Agricultural Research System
NEC National EnvironmentC ouncil
NEMAP National EnvironmentalM anagementP lan
NGO Non GovernmentO rganizations
NWMP National Water ManagementP lan
NWRC National Water ResourcesC ouncil
O&M Operation and Management
PC Planning Commission
PET Potential Evapo-Transpiration
PWD Public Works Department
RA Resource Analysis
REB Rural ElectrificationB oard
SBCP Sundarbans BiodiversityC onservationP roject
SEMP SustainableE nvironmentalM anagementP rogramme
SIA Social Impact Assessment
SPARRSO Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization
STW Shallow Tubewell
SWMC Surface Water Modeling Centre
TCF Trillion Cubic Feet
TGTDL Titas Gas Transmission and DistributionC o. Ltd.
UN United Nations
UNFCCC United Nations FrameworkC onventiono n Climate Change
WARPO Water ResourcesP lanning Organization
WRI World Resources Institute
GLOSSARY
Aman Rice crop harvested in November-December( see B. Aman and T. Aman).
Aus Summer rice planted in March-April and harvested in July-August.
Boro Rice crop planted in December-February,a nd harvested in April-June; mostly HYV with higher yield
potential than the local varieties.
B. Aman Broadcast aman; a rice crop usually planted in March/ April under dry land conditions, but in areas
liable to deep flooding. Also known as deepwater rice. Harvested October to December. All varieties
are highly sensitive to day length.
Beel Small area of standing water round the year.
Char Land formed by river activity due to sedimentationa nd silt accretion
Haor Extensive low lying area subjectt o seasonal flooding
HYV High yielding variety; introducedv arieties developed though formal breeding programs. HYV's have a
higher yield potential than local varieties but require correspondingly high inputs of fertilizer and soil
moisture to reach full yield potential.
Kharif Cropping season comprising an early part (pre-monsoon and early monsoon), and a later part (second
half of monsoon and early post-monsoon).
Kharif I The first part of the kharif season (April to June). Rainfall is variable and temperatures are high. The
main crops are aus, summerv egetables and pulses. Broadcast aman and jute are planted.
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Kharif2 The second part of the kharif season (June to October), characterized by heavy rains and floods. T.
aman is the major crop grown during this season. Harvesting of jute takes place. Fruits and summer
vegetablesm ay be grown on high land.
Khas Government owned land
Rabi Dry cropping season including the cool winter months, and the hot pre-monsoon months (November to
March).
Sal Forest Forest area mostly covered by Shorea robusta,a tropical moist deciduous species.
Shutkee Dried fish
T. Aman Transplanted aman; a rice crop planted usually in July/August, during the monsoon in areas liable to
maximum flood depth of about 0.5 m. Harvested in November/ December. Local varieties are highly
sensitive to day length whereas modern varieties are insensitive or slightly sensitive.
Acknowledgement
The final report was prepared by the SouthA sia Rural Development( SASRD) Unit of the World
Bank. The work was carried out by Sarwat Chowdhury under the general direction of Rashid
Faruqee. They also prepared the executive summary of this report.
The study preparation went through several phases. In the first phase, a contract was given to
Stratus Consulting Inc. (specifically Joel Smith), and the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced
Studies (BCAS). Important contribution was received from the International Global Change
Institute of the University of Waikato, New Zealand (including analysis of changes in flood risks
in Bangladesh). This phase focused on summarizing available knowledge with respect to the
potential impacts of climate change in Bangladesh, and identified vulnerable sectors. The draft
aimed at building awareness, and laid the ground work for the identification of pragmatic
measures to reduce Bangladesh' vulnerability to possible climate change. In 1999, Resource
Analysis group was contracted to revise the report. The revision included latest developments in
the relevant sectors. This phase of course incorporated specific implications of the identified
impacts for development policies and programs, and practical recommendationsf or actions to be
taken in Bangladesh. Resource Analysis group (consisting of Rob Koudstaal, Saskia Werners
and Bushra Nishat) collaborated with Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (specifically Ahsan Uddin
Ahmed), and BCAS (specificallyS aleemul Huq and Atiq Rahman) for completing the work. An
in-country working group discussions was held on June 28, 1999, followed by submission of a
second draft report by November 2,1999.
The latest draft was then substantially revised and restructured at the SASRD. This revised
version was discussed at a review workshop on December 30, 1999 in Dhaka. Two additional
review workshops were held in 2000 with two different group of stakeholders: one on May 8,
and the other on May 25. At the suggestion of GOB Secretary, Ministry of Environment and
Forests, a green cover version of the report was reviewed at a meeting at MOEF on October 19,
2000. The final report reflects the comments received from these consultative meetings. Other
staff members of the SASRD team particularly S.A.M. Rafiquzzaman, Imtiazuddin Ahmad and
Tajul Islam provided useful suggestions. Robert T. Watson and Walter Garvey were peer
reviewers of the final draft. Mieko Nishimizu is the Vice President of South Asia Region.
Frederick T. Temple is the Country Director, Ridwan Ali is the Sector Director for SASRD.
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Bangladesh
POVERTY and SOCIALI NDICATORS
Bangladesh South Low-
Asia income
1999
Population, mid-year (millions 127.6 1,329 2,417
GNP per capita (Atlas method, US$) 370 440 410
GNP (Atlas method, US$ billions) 47.0 581 988
Average annual growth, 1993-99
Population (%l) 1.6 1.9 1.9
Labor force (%l) 2.1 2.3 2.3
Most recent estimate
(latest year available, 1993-99)
Poverty (% ofpopulation below nationalpoverty line) 36
Urban population (% of total population) 21 28 31
Life expectancy at birth (years) 61 62 60
Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 57 75 77
Child malnutrition (% of children under 5) 68 51 43
Access to improved water source (% ofpopulation) 84 77 64
Illiteracy (% ofpopulation age 15+) 47 46 39
Gross primary enrollment (% of school-agep opulation) 96 100 96
Male 93 110 102
Female 100 90 86
KEY ECONOMICR ATIOSa nd LONG-TERMT RENDS
1979 1989 1998 1999
GDP (US$ billions) 15.6 27.0 44.1 45.7
Gross domestic investment/GDP 14.9 17.2 21.6 22.2
Exports of goods and services/GDP 4.5 5.7 13.3 13.2
Gross domestic savings/GDP 5.9 9.6 16.7 16.7
Gross national savings/GDP 10.5 13.1 20.9 20.9
Current account balance/GDP -1.8 -5.1 -1.2 -1.9
Interest payments/GDP 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4
Total debt/GDP 21.1 41.1 37.1 37.2
Total debt service/exports 26.6 21.3 10.2 10.4
Present value of debt/GDP .. .. 22.9
Present value of debt/exports .. .. 150.7
1979-89 1989-99 1998 1999 1999-03
(average annual growth)
GDP 4.4 4.8 5.2 4.8 5.1
GNP per capita 2.0 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.5
Exports of goods and services 6.1 14.2 12.4 6.0 4.9
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STRUCTUREo f the ECONOMY
1979 1989 1998 1999
(% of GDP)
Agriculture 36.7 26.0 19.1 19.6
Industry 20.7 20.4 24.8 24.3
Manufacturing 14.5 13.1 15.6 14.9
Services 42.6 53.6 56.1 56.2
Private consumption 92.2 86.2 78.6 78.7
General governmentc onsumption 1.9 4.1 4.7 4.6
Imports of goods and services 13.5 13.3 18.3 18.7
1979-89 1989-99 1998 1999
(average annual growth)
Agriculture 2.7 1.6 1.6 3.3
Industry 4.1 7.3 8.3 4.9
Manufacturing 2.8 7.2 8.5 3.2
Services 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.3
Private consumption 4.6 3.0 1.3 2.2
General government consumption 4.9 5.6 13.2 -0.2
Gross domestic investment 2.2 8.4 12.1 9.8
Imports of goods and services 4.6 10 - 0.3 5.0
Gross national product 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.0
Note: 1999 data are preliminary estimates.
PRICES and GOVERNMENTF INANCE
1979 1989 1998 1999
Domesticp rices
(Yoc hange)
Consumer prices .. 8.4 7.0 7.2
Implicit GDP deflator 10.9 7.7 5.3 4.7
Governmentf inance
(%o f GDP, includes currentg rants)
Current revenue .. 9.5 9.3 9.7
Current budget balance .. .. 2.1 1.1
Overall surplus/deficit .. -5.3 -4.1 -4.8
TRADE
1979 1989 1998 1999
(US$ millions)
Total exports (fob) .. 1,286 5,172 5,523
Jute goods .. 97 108 72
Leather and leather products .. 137 190 275
Manufactures .. 871 4,531 3,515
Total imports (cif) .. 3,390 7,525 8,381
Food .. 555 373 915
Fuel and energy .. 285 506 515
Capital goods .. 1,070 1,342 1,295
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1979 1989 1998 1999
Export price index (1995=100) 62 109 107
Import price index (1995=100) .. 93 101 99
Terms of trade (1995=100) 67 108 108
BALANCEo f PAYMENTS
1979 1989 1998 1999
(US$ millions)
Exports of goods and services 724 1,603 5,879 6,251
Imports of goods and services 1,675 3,716 8,049 8,824
Resource balance -951 -2,113 -2,170 -2,573
Net income -22 -108 -100 -109
Net current transfers 696 835 1,750 1,806
Current account balance -278 -1,386 -520 -875
Financing items (net) 425 1,452 651 994
Changes in net reserves -147 -66 -131 -118
Memo:
Reserves including gold (US$ millions) .. .. 1,739 1,772
Conversionr ate (DEC, locaW/US$) 15.2 33.2 45.4 48.1
EXTERNALD EBT and RESOURCEF LOWS
1979 1989 1998 1999
(US$ millions)
Total debt outstandinga nd disbursed 3,282 11,118 16,376 16,994
IBRD 55 62 36 33
IDA 770 3,441 6,163 6,428
Total debt service 237 522 683 728
IBRD 5 6 6 7
IDA 6 35 105 119
Compositiono f net resource flows
Official grants 495 772 657 810
Official creditors 533 975 359 248
Private creditors 9 -25 -23 -10
Foreign direct investment 0 0 308 279
Portfolio equity 0 0 3 10
World Bank program
Commitments 202 417 646 595
Disbursements 163 299 347 441
Principal repayments 0 13 66 78
Net flows 163 286 281 363
Interest payments 10 28 45 49
Net transfers 152 258 236 314
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary xi
1. Introduction I
1.1 Introduction I
1.1.1 Study objectives and outline 1
1.1.2 Methodologicalc onsiderationsa nd main assumptions 2
1.1.3 Value added 3
1.1.4 Structureo f the report 4
1.2 Current situation and developmentt rends 5
1.2.1 Bangladesh,a n overview 5
1.2.2 Development goals, and policy thrusts 6
1.2.3 Considerations of climate sensitivity 8
2. Potential Impacts of Climate Changei n Bangladesh 10
2.1 Climate and other changes by 2030 & 2050 11
2.2 Sectoral impacts: impact on the coastal zone 17
2.2.1 Description of the coastal zone 17
2.2.2 Description of coastal resources 19
2.2.3 Impacts on the availabilityo f coastal resources 21
2.2.4 Impacts on the use of coastal resources 23
2.3 Impact on fresh water resources 25
2.3.1 Description of fresh water resources 25
2.3.2 Demand for fresh water 32
2.3.3 Water balance 35
2.4 Impact on agriculture 35
2.5 Impact on human health 37
2.6.impact on ecosystems & biodiversity 38
2.7 Indication impacts for climate change 40
3. Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh 43
3.1 Why adaptation is needed in Bangladesh 44
3.1.1 Problems facing anticipatorya daptation 47
3.1.2 Possibilitiesf or adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh 48
3.1.3 Identification and selection of adaptationm easures 49
3.1.4 Assessmento f adaptation measures 50
Socio-EconomicS cenarios/ Sensitivityt o Climate Variability& Change & 52
Adaptation Possibilitiesf or Bangladesh
3.2 Coastal resources (risks & adaptation) 57
3.2.1 KeyRisks 57
3.2.2 Vision of coastal resources at low risk to climate change 57
3.2.3 Adaptations 58
3.2.4 Integrated Coastal Zone Management( ICZM) 61
3.2.5 Possibilitiesa nd limitations 63
3.3 Fresh water resources (risks & adaptation) 64
3.3.1 Key risks 64
3.3.2 Vision of fresh water resources at low risk to climate change 64
3.3.3 Adaptations 64
3.3.4 Planning for adaptationsi n fresh water resources 67
3.3.5 Possibilitiesa nd limitations 68
3.4 Agriculture( risks & adaptation) 69
3.4.1 Key risks 69
3.4.2 Vision for agriculturea t low risk to climate change 69
3.4.3 Adaptations 69
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3.4.4 Planning for adaptation in agriculture 71
3.4.5 Possibilities and limitations 72
3.5 Human Health (risks & adaptation) 73
3.5.1 Keyrisks 73
3.5.2 Vision for human health at low risk to climate change 73
3.5.3 Adaptations 73
3.5.4 Possibilitiesa nd limitations 74
3.6 Ecosystems and biodiversity (risks & adaptation) 75
3.6.1 Key risks 75
3.6.2 Vision for ecosystemslbiodiversitya t low risks to climate change 75
3.6.3 Adaptations 75
3.6.4 Possibilities and limitations 77
3.7 Strategic cross-cutting adaptations 78
3.7.1 Coordination of climate change activitiesi n Bangladesh 78
3.7.2 Integrated planning 79
3.7.3 Research and analysis of climate changes 80
3.7.4 Development of a climate change knowledge base 81
3.7.5 Preparation of guidelinesf or planning and design 82
3.7.6 Climate Change Impact Assessments( CCIA) 83
3.7.7 Awareness building and dissemination 83
3.7.8 Internationala ctivities; addressing the causes of climatec hange impacts 84
Bibliography 86
Appendix A Some basics on climate change 96
Appendix B Defining vulnerabilityt o climate change & adaptation responses 100
Appendix C A brief history of water developmenti n Bangladesh 104
Appendix D UNFCC, Kyoto, and Adaptation 108
Appendix E Development Activities and Climate Change Adaptation 110
Appendix F Flood changes in Bangladesh for 2020 129
Appendix G Attendance Lists/ Programs of May 25, 2000, May 8, 2000, 133
& Dec 30, 1999 Review Workshops& June 28, 1999 Working Group
Discussions.
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