OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2015-2024.

148 Pages·2015·2.29 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 2
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The twenty-fi rst OECD edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural
commodities, biofuels and fi sh. Notable in the 2015 report is a special feature on Brazil. OECD-FAO
Real commodity prices are projected to resume their long-term decline on the basis of on-trend productivity
growth and lower input prices. Brazil is poised to become the foremost supplier in meeting additional global
Agricultural Outlook
demand, mostly originating from Asia. Opportunities exist to extend the benefi ts of Brazil’s growth to the
poorest and to reduce the pressure on natural resources.
2015-2024
Contents
Executive summary
Chapter 1. Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024
Chapter 2. Brazilian agriculture: Prospects and challenges
Chapter 3. Commodity snapshots
More detailed commodity chapters are available on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2015-en.
The projections and past trends presented in the statistical annex can be viewed in more detail at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en.
Supplementary information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
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Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2015-en. 0
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This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases.
Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information.
2015
ISBN 978-92-64-23190-0
9HSTCQE*cdbjaa+
51 2015 02 1 P

OECD-FAO
Agricultural Outlook
2015-2024
This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD and the
Director-General of FAO. The views expressed and conclusions reached in this report do not
necessarily correspond to those of the governments of OECD member countries, or the
governmentsoftheFAOmembercountries.
Thisdocumentandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereignty
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The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not
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Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country,
territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or
boundaries.
ThenamesofcountriesandterritoriesusedinthisjointpublicationfollowthepracticeoftheFAO.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD/FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(2015),OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook2015,
OECDPublishing,Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2015-en
ISBN978-92-64-23190-0(print)
ISBN978-92-64-23203-7(PDF)
Annual:OECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook
ISSN1563-0447(print)
ISSN1999-1142(online)
FAO:
ISBN978-92-5-108808-1(print)
E-ISBN978-92-5-108814-2(PDF)
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FOREWORD
Foreword
T
heAgriculturalOutlook2015-2024,isacollaborativeeffortoftheOrganisationforEconomic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the
UnitedNations.Itbringstogetherthecommodity,policyandcountryexpertiseofbothorganisations
andinputfromcollaboratingmembercountriestoprovideanannualassessmentofprospectsforthe
comingdecadeofnational,regionalandglobalagriculturalcommoditymarkets.Thespecialfeature
on Brazil has been prepared in collaboration with analysts associated with the Ministério da
Agricultura, Pecuária eAbastecimento (MAPA) and Empresa Brasileira de PesquisaAgropecuária
(Embrapa).However,OECDandFAOareresponsiblefortheinformationandprojectionscontained
inthisdocument,andtheviewsexpressedinthespecialfeaturedonotnecessarilyreflectthoseof
Brazilianinstitutions.
Thebaselineprojectionisnotaforecastaboutthefuture,butratheraplausiblescenariobased
on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic conditions, the agriculture and trade policy
settings, weather conditions, longer term productivity trends, and international market
developments.Theprojectionsofproduction,consumption,stocks,tradeandpricesforthedifferent
agricultural products described and analysed in this report cover the years 2015 to 2024. The
evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using annual growth rates or
percentagechangesforthefinalyear2024relativetoathree-yearbaseperiodof2012-14.
The individual commodity projections are subject to critical examination by experts from
national institutions in collaborating countries and international commodity organisations prior to
their finalisation and publication in this report. The risks and uncertainties around the baseline
projectionsareexaminedthroughanumberofpossiblealternativescenariosandstochasticanalysis,
whichillustratehowmarketoutcomesmaydifferfromthedeterministicbaselineprojections.
The complete Agricultural Outlook, including more detailed commodity chapters, the full
statisticalannexandfullydocumentedOutlookdatabase,includinghistoricaldataandprojections,
can be accessed through the OECD-FAO joint Internet site: www.agri-outlook.org.The published
AgriculturalOutlook2015reportprovides:anoverviewofglobalagricultureanditsprospects;an
in-depth analysis of the outlook for Brazilian agriculture and a consideration of some of the
challenges facing the sector; and snapshots for each commodity with associated statistical tables.
ThemoredetailedcommoditychaptersarecontainedintheOECD’siLibraryversionofthereport.
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2015©OECD/FAO2015 3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Acknowledgements
T
heAgriculturalOutlookisjointlypreparedbytheOECDandFAOSecretariats.
AttheOECD,thebaselineprojectionsandOutlookreportwerepreparedbymembersof
theAgro-FoodTradeandMarketsDivisionoftheTradeandAgricultureDirectorate:Marcel
Adenäuer,JonathanBrooks(HeadofDivision),AnneliesDeuss,ArmelleElasri(publication
co-ordinator), HubertusGay, CélineGiner, GaëlleGouarin, PeteLiapis, ClaudeNenert,
KokiOkawa, GrahamPilgrim and GrégoireTallard (Outlook co-ordinator). The OECD
Secretariat is grateful for the contributions provided by visiting experts Makgoka
Lekganyane (South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries), Stephen
MacDonald(UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture),JuanitaRafajlovic(Agricultureand
Agri-Food Canada), andYumei Zhang (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences).The
organisation of meetings and document preparation were provided by Martina
Abderrahmane, Marina Giacalone-Belkadi, Aurelia Nicault and Özge Taneli-Ziemann.
Technical assistance in the preparation of the Outlook database was provided by
EricEspinasseandFranoIlicic.ManyothercolleaguesintheOECDSecretariatandmember
countrydelegationsprovidedusefulcommentsonearlierdraftsofthereport.
At the FAO, the team of economists and commodity officers from the Trade and
MarketsDivisioncontributingtothiseditionconsistedofAbdolrezaAbbassian,ElMamoun
Amrouk, Pedro Arias, Boubaker BenBelhassen (EST Division Director), Concepcion Calpe,
Emily Carroll, Kaison Chang, Merritt Cluff, Maria Adelaide D’Arcangelo, Michael Griffin,
Yasmine Iqbal, Ekaterina Krivonos, Pascal Liu, Holger Matthey (Team Leader), Natalia
Merkusheva, Jamie Morrison, Shirley Mustafa, Masato Nakane,Adam Prakash, Shangnan
Shui,TimothySulser,andPeterThoenes.WethankvisitingexpertShesadriBanerjeefrom
the National Council of Applied Economic Research in India. Marion Delport andTracy
DavidsfromtheBureauforFoodandAgriculturalPolicyattheUniversityofPretoriajoined
the team as consultants. StefaniaVannuccini from the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture
Departmentcontributed,withtechnicalsupportfromPierreCharlebois.Adviceonnatural
resourcesandbiofuelissueswasprovidedbyMarcoColangeli,OlivierDuboisandMichela
Morese from the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP). Research assistance and database
preparationwereprovidedbyClaudioCerquiglini,JulieClaro,EmanueleMarocco,MarcoMilo,
MauroPaceandPedroSousa.Thiseditionalsobenefittedfromcommentsmadebyother
colleagues from FAO and member country institutions. FAO’s James Edge, Michelle
Kendrick, Yongdong Fu and Juan-Luis Salazar provided invaluable assistance with
publicationandcommunicationissues.
Chapter2oftheOutlook,“BrazilianAgriculture:Prospectsandchallenges”,wasprepared
by theSecretariatsat OECDandFAO,withinputfromPaolaFortucciandincollaboration
with Brazilian colleagues.Alan Jorge Bojanic and Gustavo Chianca of the FAO Permanent
Representation in Brazil provided input, and their colleagues Katia Lucia dos Santos
MedeirosandHelenaCarrascosaprovidedvaluableguidanceandcommentsontheinitial
4 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2015©OECD/FAO2015
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
drafts.JulioCesarWorman(FAOTCRS)andJulianaRossetto(FAOBrazil)providedmaterial
onSouth-Southco-operation.AndreaPoloGalante(FAOESN)providedfurtherinformation
on Brazil food security and nutrition developments.This chapter also benefitted from a
wide range of inputs from several Brazilian experts: Antônio Salazar Pessôa Brandão
(University of Rio de Janeiro), Jose Gasques, Antonio Luiz Machado de Moraes, Carlos
Augusto Mattos Santana, Benedito Rosa (Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e
Abastecimento), Geraldo Martha, Geraldo Souza (Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa
Agropecuária), Marcelo Castello Branco Cavalcanti,Andre Luiz Ferreira dos Santos, Euler
JoãoGeraldodaSilva,RicardoNascimentoeSilvadoValle,PedroNinodeCarvalho,Angela
Oliveira da Costa (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética), Antonio Carlos Kfouri Aidar, Cesar
CunhaCampos,FelippeCauêSerigatti,FernandoNavesBlumenschein,InezLopes,Mauro
deRezendeLopes,andFelipeSerigati(FundaçãoGetulioVargas).
CommentsandadvicereceivedfromtheEuropeanCommission,SergioRenéAraujo-
EncisooftheAgrilifeUnitoftheJointResearchCentre(JRC-IPTSinSeville),andKoenDillen
ofDGAgricultureandRuralDevelopmentwereverymuchappreciated.
Finally, information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory
Committee,InternationalGrainsCouncilandInternationalSugarOrganizationisgratefully
acknowledged.
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2015©OECD/FAO2015 5

TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
Acronymsandabbreviations................................................. 11
Executivesummary......................................................... 15
PartI
Overviewandspecialchapter
Chapter1.OverviewoftheOECD-FAOAgriculturalOutlook2015-2024 .............. 21
Thesetting:Divergenceincropandlivestockmarketsin2014 ................. 22
Consumption:Consumptiongrowthremainsstrongestindevelopingregions ...... 29
Production:Productiongrowthconcentratedinregionswhereresourcesareless
constraining ............................................................ 35
Trade:Tradetoexpandforallcommodities,exceptbiofuels ................... 43
Prices:Realpricesfollowthelongtermdecliningtrend ....................... 49
Notes .................................................................. 59
Chapter2.Brazilianagriculture:Prospectsandchallenges........................ 61
Introduction ............................................................ 62
TrendsandprospectsforBrazilianagriculture ............................... 64
Brazil’sagriculturaloutlook ............................................... 71
TheeffectsofgovernmentpoliciesonBrazilianagriculturalmarkets ........... 91
Strategicchallenges...................................................... 105
Notes .................................................................. 107
References ............................................................. 108
Chapter3.Commoditysnapshots ............................................. 111
Cereals................................................................. 112
Oilseedsandoilseedproducts............................................. 114
Sugar .................................................................. 117
Meat................................................................... 119
Dairy................................................................... 121
Fish.................................................................... 123
Biofuels ................................................................ 126
Cotton ................................................................. 128
Notes .................................................................. 130
Annex:Commoditysnapshottables.......................................... 131
PartII
MoredetailedcommoditychaptersaswellastheGlossary,MethodologyandStatistical
Annexareavailableonlineathttp://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2015-en
OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2015©OECD/FAO2015 7
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Tables
1.1. AssumedparticipationratesinUSFarmBillprogrammesformajorcommodities 40
2.1. SummaryofproductionlevelsofotherproductsinBrazil................. 89
3.A1.1. Worldcerealprojections ............................................. 132
3.A1.2. Worldoilseedprojections ............................................ 134
3.A1.3. Worldsugarprojections ............................................. 135
3.A1.4. Worldmeatprojections .............................................. 136
3.A1.5. Worlddairyprojections:Butterandcheese ............................. 137
3.A1.6. Worlddairyprojections:Powdersandcasein. ........................... 138
3.A1.7. Worldfishandseafoodprojections.................................... 139
3.A1.8. Biofuelprojections:Ethanol .......................................... 141
3.A1.9. Biofuelprojections:Biodiesel ......................................... 142
3.A1.10. Worldcottonprojections............................................. 143
Figures
1.1. AverageGDPgrowthrates2005-2014and2015-2024 ...................... 24
1.2. EvolutionofProducerPriceIndex(PPI)andConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)
intheEuropeanUnionandinBrazil.................................... 27
1.3. VariationsinProducerPriceIndex(PPI)andConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)
forselectedcountries ................................................ 28
1.4. Mainusesofcerealsindevelopedanddevelopingcountries............... 30
1.5. Caloricintakepercapitainleastdeveloped,otherdeveloping
anddevelopedcountries ............................................. 31
1.6. Productionofrootsandtubers,1994-2013............................... 32
1.7. Worldutilisationsofrootsandtubers .................................. 33
1.8. Proteinintakepercapitainleastdeveloped,otherdeveloping
anddevelopedcountries ............................................. 34
1.9. Projectedgrowthofcropproductioninleastdeveloped,otherdeveloping
anddevelopedcountries.............................................. 35
1.10. ArablecropareasandyieldchangesinAsiaandPacificregion............. 36
1.11. ArablecropareasandyieldchangesinLatinAmericaandCaribbean ....... 37
1.12. ShareofagriculturalcommoditiesintotalcoupledaidintheEuropeanUnion.. 39
1.13. Projectedgrowthinlivestockproductioninleastdeveloped,otherdeveloping
anddevelopedcountries .............................................. 41
1.14. Shareoftradedproductionin2024comparedto2012-14.................. 43
1.15. Concentrationofexportsbycommodity,2024 ........................... 45
1.16. Concentrationofimportsbycommodity,2024........................... 46
1.17. MonthlyporkandpoultryimportsinRussianFederation,2014............. 48
1.18. Mediumtermevolutionofcommoditypricesinrealterms................ 49
1.19. Long-termpriceofmaizeinrealterms,1908-2024........................ 50
1.20. Relationshipbetweencoarsegrainpriceandcrudeoilpricein2024 ........ 51
1.21. WorldpriceeffectsofhigherG20incomes............................... 52
1.22. Coarsegrainpriceinnominaltermsincludingvariationderivedfrom
stochasticanalysis .................................................. 54
1.23. Agriculturalpricetrendsinnominaltermsincludingvariationderived
fromstochasticanalysis.............................................. 56
1.24. Pricetrendsinnominaltermsforbiofuels,cottonandfish,including
variationderivedfromstochasticanalysis .............................. 57
8 OECD-FAOAGRICULTURALOUTLOOK2015©OECD/FAO2015