Table Of ContentNuclear Proliferation and
International Order
This book examines the state of the nuclear non-p roliferation regime and the
issues it faces in the early 21st century.
Despite the fact that most countries in the world have signed the Non-
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) there is growing concern that the NPT is in serious
trouble and may not be able to stop the further spread of nuclear weapons. If so,
international stability will be undermined, with potentially disastrous con-
sequences, and the vision of a nuclear weapon- free world will become utterly
unrealistic. More specifically, the NPT is exposed to four main challenges,
explored in this book: challenges from outside, as three countries that have not
signed the Treaty – Israel, India and Pakistan – are known to possess nuclear
weapons; challenges from within, as some countries that have signed on to the
Treaty as non- nuclear weapons states have nevertheless developed or are sus-
pected to be trying to develop nuclear weapons (North Korea and Iran being
cases in point); challenges from below in the shape of terrorists and other non-
state actors who may want to acquire radioactive materials or even nuclear
weapons; and, finally, challenges from above due to the perceived failure of the
five legal nuclear weapons states to keep their part of the ‘double bargain’ made
by the parties of the NPT and take serious steps towards nuclear disarmament.
This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, inter-
national security, war and conflict studies and IR in general.
Olav Njølstad is Research Director at the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Oslo.
Routledge Global Security Studies
Series editors: Aaron Karp, Regina Karp and Terry Teriff
1 Nuclear Proliferation and International Security
Edited by Morten Bremer Mœrli and Sverre Lodgaard
2 Global Insurgency and the Future of Armed Conflict
Debating fourth-g eneration warfare
Terry Terriff, Aaron Karp and Regina Karp
3 Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Responding to the challenge
Edited by Ian Bellany
4 Globalization and WMD Proliferation
Edited by James A. Russell and Jim J. Wirtz
5 Power Shifts, Strategy and War
Declining states and international conflict
Dong Sun Lee
6 Energy Security and Global Politics
The militarization of resource management
Edited by Daniel Moran and James A. Russell
7 US Nuclear Weapons Policy After the Cold War
Russians, “rogues” and domestic division
Nick Ritchie
8 Security and Post- Conflict Reconstruction
Dealing with fighters in the aftermath of war
Edited by Robert Muggah
9 Network Centric Warfare and Coalition Operations
The new military operating systems
Paul T. Mitchell
10 American Foreign Policy and the Politics of Fear
Threat inflation since 9/11
Edited by A. Trevor Thrall and Jane K. Cramer
11 Risk, Global Governance and Security
The other war on terror
Yee- Kuang Heng and Kenneth McDonagh
12 Nuclear Weapons and Cooperative Security in the 21st Century
The new disorder
Stephen J. Cimbala
13 Political Economy and Grand Strategy
A neoclassical realist view
Mark R. Brawley
14 Iran and Nuclear Weapons
Protracted conflict and proliferation
Saira Khan
15 US Strategy in Africa
AFRICOM, terrorism and security challenges
Edited by David J. Francis
16 Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21st Century
Competing visions of world order
Edited by Graeme P. Herd
17 The Globalisation of NATO
Intervention, security and identity
Veronica M. Kitchen
18 International Conflict in the Asia- Pacific
Patterns, consequences and management
Jacob Bercovitch and Mikio Oishi
19 Nuclear Proliferation and International Order
Challenges to the non-p roliferation treaty
Edited by Olav Njølstad
Nuclear Proliferation and
International Order
Challenges to the Non-P roliferation Treaty
Edited by Olav Njølstad
Nobel Symposium 142
First published 2011
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
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This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2010.
To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s
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© 2011 Olav Njølstad for selection and editorial matter, individual
contributors; their contributions
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-i n-Publication Data
A catalog record has been requested for this book
ISBN 0-203-84482-3 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN10: 0-415-58098-6 (hbk)
ISBN10: 0-203-84482-3 (ebk)
ISBN13: 978-0-415-58098-4 (hbk)
ISBN13: 978-0-203-84482-3 (ebk)
Contents
List of contributors ix
Foreword x
OlAv NJølSTAD
1 Introduction: the present nuclear order, how it came about,
why it may not last 1
HANS BlIX
PART I
Challenge from outside: the problem of non-l egal nuclear
weapon states 11
2 The Indian nuclear program: motivations, effects, and
future trajectories 13
S. PAUl KAPUR
3 Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme: past and future 26
BHUMITRA CHAKMA
4 Israel’s nuclear capability: implications on Middle East
security 39
MOHAMeD KADRy SAID
PART II
Challenges from within: the NPT defectors 63
5 How to bring North Korea back into the NPT 65
leON v. SIGAl
6 Challenge from within: the case of Iran 84
SveRRe lODGAARD
viii Contents
PART III
Challenge from below: nuclear trafficking and terrorism 105
7 The threat of nuclear terrorism 107
MORTeN BReMeR MæRlI
8 The atomic terrorist? 127
JOHN MUelleR
PART IV
Challenge from above: the unfulfilled nuclear disarmament
pledge of the five legal nuclear-w eapon states 149
9 The United States and the NPT “double bargain” 151
DAvID HOllOwAy
10 The nuclear policy of Russia and the perspectives for
nuclear disarmament 167
vlADIMIR DvORKIN
11 Creating “nuclear order”: an open-e nded process 178
SeRGey OzNOBISHCHev
12 The UK, responsible nuclear sovereignty and the
disarmament threshold 191
wIllIAM wAlKeR
13 France and nuclear non- proliferation: from benign neglect
to active promotion 217
BRUNO TeRTRAIS
14 Departing revolution: China’s changing nuclear policies
during the Cold War 227
CHeN JIAN
15 China’s policy on nuclear weapons and disarmament 248
yAO yUNzHU
Bibliography 261
Index 274
Contributors
Hans Blix, former Director General of the International Atomic energy Agency
(IAeA)
Bhumitra Chakma, Senior lecturer and Director, South Asia Project, Depart-
ment of Politics and International Studies, University of Hull
Chen Jian, Professor of History for US–China Relations, Cornell University
Vladimir Dvorkin, Major- General (ret.), Senior Fellow, Center for Policy Stud-
ies in Russia (PIR), Moscow
David Holloway, Professor of International History, Stanford University
S. Paul Kapur, Associate Professor, Department of National Security Affairs at
the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey
Sverre Lodgaard, Senior Researcher, Norwegian Institute for International
Affairs (NUPI), Oslo
John Mueller, Professor, Department of Political Science, Ohio State University
Morten Bremer Mærli, Norwegian Pugwash Committee
Olav Njølstad, Research Director, Norwegian Nobel Institute, Oslo
Sergei Oznobishchev, Director, Institute for Strategic Assessments, Professor,
Moscow State Institute of International Relations
Mohamed Kadry Said, PhD, Major-General (ret.), Technological Advisor and
Head of the Military Studies Unit of the Al- Ahram Center for Political and
Strategic Studies, Cairo
Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at
the Social Science Research Council, New york
Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche
Stratégique (FRS), Paris
William Walker, Professor of International Relations, University of St.
Andrews, Scotland
Yao Yunzhu, Sr. Colonel and Director, Asia Pacific Office, world Military
Studies Department, Academy of Military Sciences of the PlA, Beijing
