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Notes On Superforecastin PDF

23 Pages·2017·English
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by ['Cristian Valdez']| 2017| 23 pages| English

About Notes On Superforecastin

Tetlock conducted extensive research into prediction and found that some experts can make accurate predictions while others perform no better than chance. He ran the Good Judgment Project where volunteers made geopolitical predictions that significantly outperformed intelligence agencies. The book explains that accurate forecasting is a skill that can be improved with practice, by focusing on avoiding cognitive biases, making unambiguous and quantifiable predictions, and rigorously evaluating results to improve calibration over time. The key is blending the strengths of human insight and computerized forecasting without relying too heavily on intuition.

Detailed Information

Author:['Cristian Valdez']
Publication Year:2017
Pages:23
Language:English
Format:PDF
Price:FREE
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