not by sanctions alone

68 Pages·2013·1.21 MB·English

Michael Eisenstadt
NOT BY
SANCTIONS
ALONE
USING MILITARY
AND OTHER MEANS TO
BOLSTER NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY
WITH IRAN
a washington institute strategic report

NOT BY
SANCTIONS
ALONE
USING MILITARY AND OTHER MEANS
TO BOLSTER NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY
WITH IRAN
Michael Eisenstadt
Strategic Report 13 | July 2013
the washington institute for near east policy
All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication
may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
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permission in writing from the publisher.
© 2013 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050
Washington, DC 20036
Cover photo: The Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk high-altitude,
long-endurance unmanned aircraft system. (Courtesy/ USAF)
Contents
THE AUTHOR  V
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS  VII
1. INTRODUCTION  1
2. DOES IRAN RESPOND TO PRESSURE?  3
3. WHAT DOES TEHRAN FEAR MOST?  6
4. USING MILITARY AND OTHER MEASURES TO INFLUENCE,
DISRUPT, AND DETER  11
5. SHADOW COALITIONS AND SHADOW WARS  19
6. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS  31
7. CONCLUSION  49

The Author
michael eisenstadt is a senior fellow and director of The Washington
Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program. A specialist in Persian Gulf and
Arab-Israeli security affairs, he has published widely on irregular and conventional
warfare, and nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East. Prior to joining the
Institute in 1989, he worked as a military analyst with the U.S. government.
Eisenstadt served for twenty-six years as an officer in the U.S. Army Reserve before
retiring in 2010. His military service included active-duty stints in Iraq with the
United States Forces-Iraq headquarters and the Human Terrain System Assessment
Team; in Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan with the U.S. Security Coordinator for
Israel and the Palestinian Authority; at U.S. Central Command headquarters and
on the Joint Staff during Operation Enduring Freedom and the planning for Oper-
ation Iraqi Freedom; and in Turkey and Iraq during Operation Provide Comfort.
He has also served in a civilian capacity on the Multinational Force-Iraq/U.S.
Embassy Baghdad Joint Campaign Plan Assessment Team and as a consultant
or adviser to the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group, the Multinational
Corps-Iraq Information Operations Task Force, and the State Department’s Future
of Iraq defense policy working group. In 1992, he took a leave of absence from the
Institute to work on the U.S. Air Force Gulf War Air Power Survey.
v

Acknowledgments
i would like to thank Dr. Patrick Clawson and Ambassador James Jeffrey
for their insightful comments on an earlier draft of this study; Rebecca Edelston,
Michael Gibbs, and Guive Rosen for their invaluable research assistance; Mary
Kalbach Horan and Jason Warshof for their deft editing and shepherding of
this manuscript to book form; and the Charles and Lynn Schusterman Family
Foundation for the grant that made this study possible. Needless to say, any
errors in fact or interpretation are mine alone.
Michael Eisenstadt
July 2013
vii