Nostradamus 2014: Prediction, Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems

463 Pages·2014·32.82 MB·English

by  Ivan Zelinka

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 289
Ivan Zelinka
Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan
Guanrong Chen · Václav Snášel
Ajith Abraham · Otto E. Rössler Editors
Nostradamus 2014:
Prediction, Modeling
and Analysis of
Complex Systems
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
Volume 289
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Chairman
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Members
RafaelBello,UniversidadCentral“MartaAbreu”deLasVillas,SantaClara,Cuba
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EmilioS.Corchado,UniversityofSalamanca,Salamanca,Spain
e-mail:[email protected]
HaniHagras,UniversityofEssex,Colchester,UK
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LászlóT.Kóczy,SzéchenyiIstvánUniversity,Gyo˝r,Hungary
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JunWang,TheChineseUniversityofHongKong,Shatin,HongKong
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·
Ivan Zelinka Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan
·
Guanrong Chen Václav Snášel
·
Ajith Abraham Otto E. Rössler
Editors
Nostradamus 2014:
Prediction, Modeling
and Analysis of
Complex Systems
ABC
Editors
IvanZelinka VáclavSnášel
DepartmentofComputerScience DepartmentofComputerScience
FacultyofElectricalEng.&Comp.Sci. FacultyofElectricalEng.&Comp.Sci.
VŠB-TUO VŠB-TUO
Ostrava-Poruba Ostrava-Poruba
CzechRepublic CzechRepublic
PonnuthuraiNagaratnamSuganthan AjithAbraham
NanyangTechnologicalUniversity ScientificNetworkforInnovationand
Singapore ResearchExcellence
Singapore MachineIntelligenceResearchLabs
(MIRLabs)
GuanrongChen AuburnWashington
DepartmentofElectronicEngineering USA
CityUniversityofHongKong
HongKong OttoE.Rössler
China InstituteforPhysicalandTheoretical
Chemistry
UniversityofTübingen
TübingenBaden-Württemberg
Germany
ISSN2194-5357 ISSN2194-5365 (electronic)
ISBN978-3-319-07400-9 ISBN978-3-319-07401-6 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-07401-6
SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2014940405
(cid:2)c SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2014
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Preface
ThisproceedingbookoftheNostradamusconference(http://nostradamus-conference.
org)containsacceptedpaperspresentedatthiseventin June2014.Nostradamuscon-
ferencewasheldinthethirdlargestcityintheCzechRepublic-Ostrava(http://www.
ostrava.cz/en).
Conferencetopicsarefocusedonclassicalaswellasmodernmethodsformodelling,
prediction,identification and simulation of complexsystems with applicationsin sci-
ence,engineeringandeconomy.Topicsare(butnotlimitedto):predictionbyclassical
andnovelmethods,predictivecontrol,deterministicchaosanditscontrol,complexsys-
tems, modelingand predictionof its dynamics, interdisciplinaryfusion of chaos,ran-
domnessandevolutionandmuchmore.
Thepredictionofbehaviorofcomplexsystems,analysisandmodelingofitsstruc-
ture is a vitally important problem in engineering,economy and generally in science
today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us (including our
bodies)andofcourseinalmosteveryscientificdisciplineincludingsuch“exotic”do-
mainsastheearth’satmosphere,turbulentfluids,economics(exchangerateandstock
markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social
networksanditsdynamics,chemistryandcomplexnetworks.Tounderstandsuchcom-
plex dynamics, which often exhibit strange behavior, and to use it in research or in-
dustrialapplications,itisparamounttocreateitsmodels.Forthispurposethereisrich
spectra of methods, from classical such as ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to
modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, geometry,
deterministicchaosamongstothers.
Themainaimoftheconferenceistocreateperiodicalpossibilityforstudents,aca-
demics and researchers to exchange their ideas and novel methods. This conference
will establish a forum for the presentationand discussion of recent trendsin the area
ofapplicationsofvariousmodernaswellasclassicalmethodsforresearchers,students
andacademics.
The accepted selection of papers was extremely rigorously reviewed in order to
maintainthehighqualityoftheconferencethatissupportedbygrantno.CZ.1.07/2.3.
00/20.0072 funded by Operational Programme Education for Competitiveness, co-
financed by ESF. Regular as well as student’s papers (1/4 of all papers) has been
VI Preface
submittedtotheconference,andinaccordancewithESFsupportaswellaswithconfer-
encetopicsguidelines,hasbeenacceptedafterapositivereview.Basedonacceptedpa-
persstructureandtopics,theproceedingbookconsistsofsectionsas:Chaos,Evolution
andComplexitydiscussestopicsfromthefieldofevolutionaryalgorithms,deterministic
chaos, its complex dynamicsand mutualintersectionsof all three topics (chaospow-
ered swarm intelligence algorithms, complexity in bio-inspired algorithms dynamics,
chaos control, etc.). Section Nature-Inspired Algorithms and Nonlinear Systems con-
tainparticipationsabouttheuseofbio-inspiredalgorithmsonvariouscomplexand/or
nonlinearproblems(forecasting,EEGsignalmodeling,battleshipgamestrategy,sym-
bolicregressionpoweredbychaos,etc.).SectionNonlinearandPredictiveControland
Nonlinear Dynamics and Complex Systems contains papers about controlling model-
ingandanalysisofcomplexandnonlinearsystemsandthelastsection,VariousTopics,
containsafewborderlinepapers(fractalgeometryapplicationonprocessmodelingand
theoryofbasiclawofphysics)thatappeartobeinterestingandkeepingwiththetheme
oftheconferencetopics.
Forthisyear,asafollow-upoftheconference,weanticipatefurtherpublicationof
selected papers in a special issue of the prestigious journal Swarm and Evolutionary
Computation,ComputerScience(Hidawi),specialbookinEmergenceComplexityand
Computationseriesandmore.
WewouldliketothankthemembersoftheProgramCommitteesandreviewersfor
their hard work. We believe that Nostradamus conference represents a high standard
conferenceinthedomainofpredictionandmodelingofcomplexsystems.Nostradamus
2014enjoyedoutstandingkeynotelecturesbydistinguishedguestspeakers:RenéLozi
(France), Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan (Singapore) and Lars Nolle (Ger-
many).
Particular thanks goes as well to the Workshop main Sponsors, IT4Innovations,
VŠB-TechnicalUniversityofOstrava,MIRlabs(USA),CentreforChaosandComplex
Networks (Hong Kong), Journal of UnconventionalComputing (UK). Special thanks
belongtoMinistryofEducationoftheCzechRepublic.Thisconferencewassupported
bytheDevelopmentofhumanresourcesinresearchanddevelopmentoflatestsoftcom-
puting methodsand their application in practice project, reg. no. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0
072fundedbyOperationalProgrammeEducationforCompetitiveness,co-financedby
ESFandstatebudgetoftheCzechRepublic.
Preface VII
We wouldlike to thank all the contributingauthors,as well as the membersof the
Program Committees and the Local Organizing Committee for their hard and highly
valuablework.TheirworkhasdefinitelycontributedtothesuccessoftheNostradamus
conference.
TheEditors
IvanZelinka
PonnuthuraiNagaratnamSuganthan
GuanrongChen
VáclavSnášel
AjithAbraham
OttoE.Rössler
This conference was supported by the Development of human resources in research
and development of latest soft computing methods and their application in practice
project,reg.no.CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0072fundedbyOperationalProgrammeEducation
forCompetitiveness,co-financedbyESFandstatebudgetoftheCzechRepublic.
Organization
International Conference Committee
EdwardOtt,USA LinqiangPan,China
IvanZelinka,CzechRepublic ŠenkeˇríkRoman,CzechRepublic
GuanrongChen,HongKong FecˇkanMichal,Slovakia
OttoE.Rössler,Germany JašekRoman,CzechRepublic
SergejCˇelikovsky,CzechRepublic JoannaKolodziej,Poland
MohammedChadli,France RadekMatoušek,CzechRepublic
AjithAbraham,MIRLabs,USA HendrikRichter,Germany
VaclavSnasel,CzechRepublic ZdeneˇkBeran,CzechRepublic
EmilioCorchado,Spain AnaPeleteiro,Spain
AndyAdamatzky,UK VadimStrijov,Russia
JiˇríPospíchal,Slovakia OldˇrichZmeškal,CzechRepublic
JouniLampinen,Finland MasoudMohammadian,Australia
JuanCarlosBurguillo-Rial,Spain MiguelA.F.Sanjuan,Spain
PandianVasant,Malysia GennadyLeonov,Russia
PetrDostál,CzechRepublic NikolayKuznetsov,Russia
DavendraDonald,Fiji,CzechRepublic RenéLozi,France
BernabéDorronsoro,Luxembourg PetrSaloun,CzechRepublic
OplatkováZuzana,CzechRepublic
Local Conference Committee
JanMartinovicˇ MichalKrumnikl
LenkaSkanderová MilošKudeˇlka
JanPlatoš PavelMoravec
EliškaOdchodková JiˇríDvorský
MartinMilata TilkovaLudmila
PavelKrömer KvapulinskaPetra