Nordic Green to Scale

72 Pages·2016·5.6 MB·English

Nordic
Green
to Scale
Nordic climate
solutions can help
other countries
cut emissions
1
Nordic Green to Scale
Nordic low-carbon success stories to inspire the world
Editor: Oras Tynkkynen (Sitra)
Technical analysis: Jan Ivar Korsbakken and Borgar Aamaas (CICERO)
ISBN 978-92-893-4734-1 (PRINT)
ISBN 978-92-893-4735-8 (PDF)
http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/ANP2016-776
ANP 2016:776
© Nordic Council of Ministers 2016
Layout: Nórr Design
Cover Photo: norden.org
Photos: norden.org, istockphoto.com, pexels.com
Print: Rosendahls
Copies: 750
Type: Mark Pro
Paper: MultiDesign White
Printed in Denmark

This publication has been published with financial support by the Nordic Council
of Ministers. However, the contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect
the views, policies or recommendations of the Nordic Council of Ministers.
www.norden.org/nordpub
Nordic co-operation
Nordic co-operation is one of the world’s most extensive forms of regional
collaboration, involving Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the
Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Åland.
Nordic co-operation has firm traditions in politics, the economy, and culture. It
plays an important role in European and international collaboration, and aims
at creating a strong Nordic community in a strong Europe.
Nordic co-operation seeks to safeguard Nordic and regional interests and
principles in the global community. Shared Nordic values help the region solidify
its position as one of the world’s most innovative and competitive.
Nordic Council of Ministers
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www.norden.org
Contents
From commitment to action 5
Executive Summary 7
Introduction 9
Results: Emissions, Costs and Benefits 10
Discussion 19
Methodology 23
Project Background 27
Solutions Catalogue 28
Energy 31
Combined heat and power production 32
Onshore wind power 34
Offshore wind power 36
Geothermal power 38
Industry 41
Carbon capture and storage in oil and gas production 42
Reducing methane in oil and gas production 44
Low-carbon energy in industry 46
Transport 49
Electric vehicles 50
Biofuels in transport 52
Cycling in cities 54
Buildings and Households 57
Energy efficiency in buildings 58
Residential heat pumps 60
Bioenergy for heating 62
Agriculture and Forests 65
Reforestation and land restoration 66
Manure management 68
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PREFACE:
From commitment
to action
2015 WAS A YEAR of commitments. First in New York world leaders adopted
new Sustainable Development Goals to rid the world of poverty, improve health,
protect our environment and work through partnerships. Later in Paris countries
agreed on the historic Paris climate agreement inspiring emission reduction
commitments from virtually all nations. These efforts are intrinsically linked.
From now on every year has to be a year of action. To achieve the goals set
in the Paris agreement – to limit global warming to well below 2˚C and pursue
efforts to keep it at just 1.5˚C – countries need to ramp up their climate efforts
significantly. And we need to do it fast.
That is why this study is so important. Like the global Green to Scale report
released last year, this Nordic study shows that there are already plenty of proven
low-carbon solutions available, and at an affordable cost. There is no reason to
wait. The time to deliver is now.
As citizens of a Nordic country, we are proud of the role our region can play. By
helping the world in scaling up these solutions, Nordic countries can contribute
to tackling the climate crisis way beyond our size. And yet we are humbled by the
fact that we, too, need to do much more to meet our existing commitments and
go beyond them.
This report is also an appeal to all of you. How can we inspire and encourage
more action? What role can you play?
We know it can be done. Now let us take action – together.
Kimmo Tiilikainen Mikko Kosonen
Minister of Agriculture President
and the Environment of Sitra, the Finnish
Finland Innovation Fund

5
6
Executive Summary
Introduction Climate impact
To keep global warming well below 2°C, countries need Scaling up the selected Nordic solutions can cut
to both meet their existing emission targets and go global emissions by 4.1 gigatonnes (GtCOe) in 2030.
2
beyond them. The Nordic Green to Scale project helps The reduction is equal to the current total emissions
in choosing the concrete low-carbon solutions to do so. of the European Union.
The study looks at 15 existing climate solutions The climate impact varies greatly between
that have been proven to work in the Nordic region. solutions. The solution with the largest potential is
We have estimated the climate impact and costs combined heat and power production, which alone
of scaling them up to other countries. We have could reduce emissions by almost as much as Japan
also looked at co-benefits of and barriers to these produces every year.
solutions, as well as policies to promote them.
The 15 solutions
Scaling up just 15
The low-carbon solutions were selected mainly
Nordic solutions
based on four criteria: 1) Nordic distinctiveness,
2) proven climate impact, 3) analysis feasibility, and
can cut global
4) scalability. The project also strived to maintain a
reasonable geographical and sectoral balance. emissions by
Many more Nordic solutions already exist that
4 gigatonnes
could contribute to reducing global emissions. There
are still more solutions that are currently being in 2030.
developed or in the early stages of implementation.
Table 1: Key results in 2030
Reduction Costs
Solution Reference countries
(MtCOe) (billion $)
2
Combined heat and power production Denmark, Finland 1,171 -7.7
Onshore wind power Denmark, Sweden 695 16.9
Energy
Offshore wind power Denmark 22 0.8
Geothermal power Iceland 55 0.3
Carbon capture and storage in oil and gas production Norway 63 2.1
Industry Reducing methane in oil and gas production Norway 357 -5.1
Low-carbon energy in industry Finland, Sweden 57 1.3
Electric vehicles Norway 50 6.0
Transport Biofuels in transport Finland, Sweden 423 0.8
Cycling in cities Denmark 37 -1.6
Energy efficiency in buildings Sweden 430 -8.6
Buildings and
Residential heat pumps Sweden 64 -3.1
households
Bioenergy for heating Finland 193 7.7
Reforestation and land restoration Iceland 21 0.3
Agriculture
and forests
Manure management Denmark 478 2.4
Total 4,117 12.6
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More can be done Co-benefits
Overall, the analysis is likely to be conservative. The Most solutions have various co-benefits. Positive
solutions are applied by 2030 only to the extent the effects include improvements in health, employment
Nordic countries have already achieved today, for and ecosystem services. For example, encouraging
example. people to bike more can help cut harmful air pollution
The full potential is likely to be larger. Other and noise, reduce traffic congestion, improve health
countries may go further by 2030 than the Nordic and free up urban space for other uses.
countries have achieved today. Existing solutions
Barriers and policies
will develop further, and new solutions will emerge.
Countries implementing policies today can benefit Attractive low-carbon solutions are being held back
from the experiences of the past, thus enabling better by various barriers. First, many solutions require a
results faster. significant up-front investment. Second, low-carbon
In addition, implementation can be coupled with options suffer from fossil fuel subsidies and low
innovation. This makes existing solutions even more energy prices. Third, lack of awareness and public
effective and affordable. It also provides completely opposition may hamper progress. Finally, low-carbon
new solutions – solutions that are desperately needed solutions can have negative social or environmental
to reach zero and later net negative emissions. impacts, if planned or implemented poorly.
Countries can remove these barriers by learning
Economic rationale
from the countries that have already done so. Some
The net cost of implementing all 15 solutions is conclusions can be drawn from the 15 analysed
estimated to be $13 billion in 2030. To put the number Nordic solutions.
into perspective, the cost of scaling up the solutions First, there needs to be an incentive to reduce
would equal what countries globally spend on fossil emissions through pricing carbon, for instance.
fuel subsidies in just nine days. Second, mandates and norms still play a role.
Behind the net total costs are large differences Third, clear targets and a predictable regulatory
between the solutions. Onshore wind comes with environment enable investments. Fourth, providing
an estimated price tag of $17 billion. On the other information and raising awareness can facilitate
hand, energy efficiency in buildings could save nearly action. Finally, climate action also needs to be socially
$9 billion. and environmentally sustainable.
The average net abatement cost is 3 $/tCO e in
2
Conclusion
2030. This is just half of the current price of allowances
in the EU emissions trading system – and much less This study shows that simply using what we already
than the projected prices in 2030. have can take us a long way in tackling the climate
The costs do not include co-benefits such as crisis, building on the Nordic experience. Countries
improved health or ecosystem services. If full benefits around the world have a range of proven and
were included, the solutions would be significantly attractive low-carbon solutions to choose from.
cheaper – in some cases turning costs into savings. There is no need to wait. And, more importantly, there
is no time to wait. The time for climate action is now.

The net cost of implementing all 15
solutions is estimated to be $13 billion
in 2030. This equals the amount that
countries globally spend on fossil fuel
subsidies in just nine days.
8
Introduction
AFTER THE ADOPTION of the Paris Agreement,
the world faces two tasks. First, countries need
to implement their current climate commitments. The Nordic Green
Second, they must explore going beyond them to
to Scale project
bridge the emissions gap between current pathways
and those in line with the temperature goals of the
looks at 15 existing
Paris Agreement.
The Nordic Green to Scale project helps countries in climate solutions
meeting these challenges. The basic concept is simple.
that have been
The study looks at 15 existing climate solutions that
have been implemented at scale and proven to work proven to work
successfully in the Nordic region. We have then scaled
successfully in the
up these solutions to applicable countries elsewhere
and estimated their impact on global emissions, costs Nordic region.
and benefits to society.
The international Green to Scale project conducted
in 2015 showed that scaling up just 17 low-carbon
solutions could reduce global emissions by 12
gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO e) While many low-carbon solutions are already
2
by 2030. Now the Nordic follow-up project builds on attractive, they are being held back by various
this analysis and expands it. barriers. That is why we also look at the success
Numerous studies before have identified significant stories of the Nordic countries and how they have
potential for further climate action. What makes been able to overcome these barriers.
Green to Scale stand out is its unique approach. This and the previous Green to Scale study clearly
Instead of relying on emerging technologies and illustrate that countries have a range of proven and
theoretical scenarios, the study focuses simply on attractive low-carbon solutions to choose from. By
what we have today: existing low-carbon solutions working together, we can move further, tackle the
with a proven track record. Instead of pushing climate crisis and reap the benefits of green growth.
countries into uncharted territories, the analysis Over time, we can create a snowball effect in which
expects them to reach by 2030 the same level some countries learn from, and are inspired by, each other’s
other countries have already achieved today. efforts and successes. Eventually we will – hopefully
The approach is in many ways conservative. – arrive at a level of action that is enough to achieve
By 2030, many countries can go beyond what the the ambitious climate goals of the Paris Agreement.
Nordic countries have achieved today. Over the This editorial report presents the key findings
coming years, low-carbon technologies will continue and relevant background information of the Nordic
to become cheaper and more effective. Countries Green to Scale study in a concise form. For further
implementing policies today can benefit from the information, please refer to the full technical report
experiences of the past. available online at www.greentoscale.net/nordic.
9
Results: Emissions,
Costs and Benefits
Climate impact
Scaling up existing low-carbon solutions can reduce Figure 1: Emission reductions
global emissions significantly. Our analysis shows by sector
that just 15 Nordic solutions can save 4.1 gigatonnes
of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO e) in 2030, if
2
implemented widely in comparable countries.
The emission reduction is equal to the total
Energy (4)
emissions of the European Union. It is also more than
Industry (3)
20 times the current combined emissions of the five
Nordic countries. 4 Transport (3)
Gt
The full potential of existing solutions is higher.
Buildings and
A larger number of solutions would reduce emissions
Households (3)
even more. Countries may go further by 2030 than
Agriculture
what the Nordic countries have achieved today.
and Forests (2)
Existing solutions will develop further, and new
solutions will emerge.
The largest potential identified in this study is in
the energy sector. Combined heat and power (CHP),
wind power and geothermal energy cover almost half Emission potentials in this study are presented
of the total potential. with ranges, recognising uncertainties. At the higher
Five solutions are fully scaled up globally. At the end, 15 analysed solutions could deliver an emission
other extreme, bioenergy for heating is applied only reduction of 4.7 Gt, whereas under more pessimistic
to three countries. Many solutions are expected to assumptions the impact could be 3.6 Gt. Taking
be implemented only in relatively wealthy countries, into account possible overlap between different
to make sure that the conditions are sufficiently solutions reduces the impact by a little more than
comparable to the Nordic countries. 0.1 Gt in 2030.
Scaling up existing low-carbon
solutions can reduce global
emissions significantly: just 15
Nordic solutions can save 4 Gt in
2030, if implemented widely in
comparable countries.
10