Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena

110 Pages·7.633 MB·English

GeophysMiocnaolg raSpehr ies
Including
IUGG Volumes
MauricEew ingV olumes
MineraPlh ysiVcosl umes
GEOPHYSICALM ONOGRAPH SERIES
GeophysiMcoanlo grapVho lumes 21Q uantitaMtoidveel inogfM agnetospheric
ProcessWe.sP .O lso(nE d).
1 Antarctiintc hae I nternational Geophysica22l DerivatioMne,a ninagn,d U seo fG eomagnetic
YearA .P .C raryL,. M . GouldE,.O .H ulburt, IndicePs.N .M ayaud
HughO dishaawn,dW aldEo. S mit(hE d)s . 23 The Tectoniancd GeologEivco lutioofnS outheast
2G eophysiacnsdt heI GY Hugh Odishaw and AsianS eaasn dI slandDesn niEs .H aye(sE d).
StanlReyu tten(bEedr)sg . 24M echanical BehavioofCr ru staRlo cksT:h eH andin
3 AtmospheCrhiecm istorfyC hlorianned S ulfur Volume N.L .C artMer.,F riedmanJ,.M .L ogaann,d
CompoundsJ amePs.L odgJer,(. E d). D.W .S tearns( Ed)s .
4 ContemporGaeroyd esyC harlAe.Ws h ittaennd 25 PhysiocfsA uroraAlr cF ormation S.-IAka.so fu and
KenneHt.hD rummon(dE d)s . J.R .Ka n (Ed)s .
5 PhysiocfsP recipitaHteilomnu t Weic(kEmd)a. nn 26H eterogenAetmooussp heriCch emistry
6 TheC rusto ft heP acifiBca sin DavidR .S chrye(rE d).
GordoAn.M acdonaalnddH isasKhuin o( Ed)s . 27Th e TectonaincdG eologEivco lutioofnS outheast
7 AntarctRiecsae arTchhe:M attheFwo ntaine AsianS eaasn dI slanPdasr:2t DennisE .H ayes( Ed).
MauryM emoriaSly mposiumH .W exleMr.,J . 28 Magnetospheric enCtursrTJw mas A.P otem(raE d).
Rubiann,d ]E.. C askeyJ,r( .E d)s . 29C limatPer ocesansde sC limaSteen sitivity
8T errestHreiaatFl l ow WilliHa.mK .L ee( Ed). (MauricEew ingVo lume5 )J amesE .H anseann d
9 GraviAtnyo maliUenss:u rveyeAdr easH yman TarToa kahas(hEid) s .
Orli(nE d). 30 MagneticR econnectiino nS pacaned Laboratory
10T heE artBhe neatthh eC ontinenAt sV:o lumoef PlasmaEsd wardW .H ones,J r(.E d).
GeophysiSctauld iiensH onor of MAe.r le 31P oint DeifneM citnse ra(lMsi nerPahly sics
Tuve JohSn. S teinhaanrdTt .J efferSsmoint (hE d)s . Volume1 )R oberNt. S choc(kE d).
11I sotoTpeec hniquients h eH ydroloCgyiccl e 32Th e CarboCny claen dA tmospherCiOc2 :N atural
GlenEn. S tou(tE d). VariationAsr cheant oP resenEt. T .S undquisatn d
12T heC rusta ndU pper Manotflt eh eP acific Area W.S .B roecke(rE d)s .
Leon Knopoff,L .DC rhaakralene,ds 33G reenlanIdc Ceo reG:e ophysiGcesoc,h emistry,
PembroJk.He a r(tE d)s . and the EnvironmenCt. LaCn.gwa y, Jr,.
13T heE arthC'russ ta ndU pperM antle H.O eschgearn,dW .D ansgaa(rEdds ).
PembroJk.He a r(tE d). 34 CollisioSnlheoscski snt heH eliosphAe Treu:t orial
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16F lowa ndF ractuorfRe o cksH .C .H eard, -The PatersVoonl umeB .E .H obbsa nd
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17M an-MadLea kes: TPhreoibrl eamnsd 37E arthquaSkoeur ceM echanic(sM auriEcwei ng
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ofP aperWsi thA nnotatiCo.nO .H ineasn d IonospheTroem C han(gE d).
Colleagues 39H ighP ressuRree searcihnM inerPahly sics
19T heG eophysiocfts h eP acifiOcc eanB asiann d (MinerPalh ysiVcosl um2e )M urlHi. M anghnani
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WoollarGde orHg.eS uttoMnu,r lHi. M anghnani, 40 GondwanaS ixS:tru cturTee ctoniancds G,e ophysics
andR alpMho ber(lEyd )s . GaryD .M cKenzi(eE d).
20T heE arth's CIrtuNssa tt:u raen dP hysical 41G ondwanaS ixS:tr atigraphy, Sedimeanntdo logy,
PropertiJeoshC n. H eaco(cEkd) . PaleontolGoagryry D .M cKenzie( Ed).
42 Flowa ndT ranspTohrrto ughU nsaturaFtreadc tured 64 MagnetospheSruibcs tormsJ osepRh. Ka n,
Rock DaniDe.lE vansa ndTh 011UlS J.N ichols(oEnd s.) Tho11UlS A.P otemSrau,s umKuo kubuann,d
43 Seamounts, IsalnanddA st,o llBsa rbarHa.Kea ting, TakesIii ji(11UlE ds.)
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44 ModeliMnaggn etosphePrilca smaT .E .M ooraen d HowarJd.P attoann,dP auGl. R icha(rEddss .)
J.H .W aitJer,(. E ds.) 66 Venusa ndM ars: AtmosphereIso,n osphearneds ,
45 PerovskAi tSetr:u ctuorfeG reaItn terteos t SolarW indI nteractiJoannsGe .tL uh11UlnnMa,r iella
Geophysanidc sM ateriSaclise nce TatralalnydaR yo,be rOt. P epin( Eds.)
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46 Structure andD ynamicosfE arth'sD eepI nterior PlanetSacryi enc(eMsi nerPahly siVcosl um3e )
(IUGGV olume1 )D .E .S mylained YasuhSiykoo no andH .MM uarnlgih na(nEid s.)
RaymonHdid e( Eds.) 68 MicrowavRee motSee nsionfgS eaI ce
47H ydrologicRaelgi mesa ndT heiSru bsurface FranCka rseyR,o gerB arryJ,o sefi.nCoo mis oD,. A ndrew
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GranGta rven,a ndlil joSst ege(nEad s.) Weeksa,n dD alWei nebrenner
48 Origin andE volutioofnS edimentBaarsyi ns 69S eaL eveClh angesD:e terminatiaonnd E ffects
and TheiErn ergya ndM ineral Resources (IUGGV olum1e 1)P .L .W oodworthD,. T .P ugh,
(IUGGV olum3e )R aymonAd.P ri(ceE d.) J.G .D eRondRe.G, . W arricakn,dJ .H annah
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50 DeepS tructuraen dP asKti nematiocfsA ccreted 71 Mantle Flowa ndM eltG eneratiaotnM id-Ocean
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51P ropertieasn dP rocesosfeE sa rth'sL oweCrru st andJ ohMn. Sint(oEnd s.)
(IUGGV olume6 )R oberFt.M ereu,S tephaMnu eller, 72D ynamicosfE arth'Dse epI nteriaonrd E arth
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52U nderstandCinlgi maCthea ng(eI UGGV olum7e ) D.ES.m yliaen,dTh o11UlS Herrin(gE ds.)
Andre BLe.r gRero,ber tE .D ickinasnodJn .,K idson 73E nvironmentEaffle ctso nS pacecrPaofsti tioannidn g
(Eds.) Trajecto(riIeUsG GV olum1e 3A). V allanJcoen es( Ed.)
53P lasmWaa vesa ndI stabilaitCt oimeest asn di n 74E volutoifot nh eE arth andP lanets( IUGG
MagnetospherBersu ceT .T surutaannidH irosOyhai Volume1 4)E .T akahasRayhmio,n d Jeanloazn,d
(Eds.) DavidR ubi(eE ds.)
54 SolarS ystePml asmPah ysicJs.H .W aitJer,. , 75 InteractiBoentsw eeGnl obaCll imaStueb systems:
J.L .B urcahn,dR .L .M oore( Eds.) TheL egacoyfH ann (IUGGV olume1 5)
55A spectso fC limatVea riabiliintt yh eP acifiacn d G.A .M cBeana ndM .H ant(eE/d s.)
WesternA mericasD avidH .P eters(oEnd .) 76R elatiGnego physiSctruaclt ureasn dP rocessTehse:
56Th e Brittle-DucTtrianlsei tiionRn o cksA .G .D uba, JeffreVyosl ume (IUGGV olum1e 6)K .A kia nd
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57E volutoifoM ni dO ceanR idge(sI UGGV olum8e ) 77 TheM esozoPiacc ificG:e ologTye,c tonaincds
JohMn. S inton (Ed.) Volcam-n-iAs Volumien M emory ofS yS chlanger
58Ph ysicosf M agnetiFcl uxR opesC .T .R ussell, MalcolmS .P ringWliel,l iaWm. S ageWri,l liaVm.S liter,
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59V aritiaonsi nE arth Rotatio(nI UGGV olume9 ) 78C limaCthean gei nC ontinenItsaolt oRpeicco rds
DenniDs. M cCarthayn dW illiaEm.sCa rter( Eds.) P.K .S wartK,. C .L oh11UlnnJ,.M cKenziea,n dS .S avin
60 QuoV adimuGse ophysfiocrths e NextG eneration (Eds.)
(IUGG Volum1e0 )G eorgDe. G arlanadn d 79 TheT ornado:I tSstru ctureD,y namicPsr,e diction,
JohRn. A pel( Eds.) and Hazards C.C hurcDh.,B urgesCs.,D oswell,
61C ometaryP lasmParoc esseAsla nD .J ohnst(oEnde. ) R.D avi-esJon(eEsd s.)
62M odeliMnaggn etosphePrilca smPar ocesses 80 AurorPalla smDay namicsR .L .L ysa(kE d.)
GordonK .W ils(oEnd .) 81S olarW indS ourcoefsM agnetospheUrlitcr a-Low
63 Marine ParticlAensa lysanids C haracterization FrequenWcayv es M.J .E ngebreKt.sT oanka,h ashi,
DavidC .H urda ndD ereWk. S pencer (Eds.) and M. Scho(lEerd s.)
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(Eds.) 7U nderstandinOgi matCeh angeA ndrLe. B erger,
RoberEt.D ickinsoann,dJ . K idso(nE ds.)
8E volutoifoM ni dO ceanR idgeJso hMn. S int(oEnd .)
9V ariatiionEn sa rtRho tatioDne nniDs.M cCarthy
MauriceE winVgo lumes
andW illiaEm.C art(eErd s.)
1I slanArcsd, DeepS eaT renchaensd,B ack-Arc 10Q uoV adimuGse ophysifcosrt heN extG eneration
BasinMasn ikT alwanain dW altCe.rP itmanII I( Eds.)
GeorDg.eG ar1£zannddJ ohRn. A pe(lE ds.)
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andD ennisE .H aye(sE ds.)
DeRondRei,c haGr.Wd a rriacnkdJ, o hHna nna(hE ds.)
3D eepD rilling Resultisn t heA tlantiOcc ean: 12D ynamicosfE arthD'ese pI nterainodEr a rth
ContinentaMlargins andP aleoenvironment
RotatiJoeann- LouiLseM ouelD,. ES.m yliaen,d
Manik TalwanWii,l liaHmay ,a ndW illiaBm.F .R yan
ThomasH errin(gE ds.)
(Eds.) 13E nvironmeEnffteaclt osn S pacecrPaofsti tioning
4 EarthquakPer edictin-o-An InternatioRneavli ew
andT rajectoAr.iV easla lncJeo ne(sE d.)
David W.S impsoann dP auGl. R ichard(sE ds.) 14E volutoifot nh eE artahn dP lanetEs. T akahashi,
5O imatPer ocesansde sC limatSee nsitivity
RaymonJde anlaonzdD, a viRdu bi(eE ds.)
JamesE .Ha nsen andT arToakizhas hi (Eds.) 15I nteractions Between Global Climate Subsystems:
6E arthquake Source MechSahnaimcsiD taas J,o hn
TheL egacoyfH ann G.A .M cBeaann d
Boatwrighatn,dC hristoHp.Sh cehro (lEzd s.)
M. Hant(eEld s.)
16R elatiGnego physiSctarlu ctuarnedPs r ocesses:
TheJ effreVyosl ume K.A kia ndR .D mowska( Ed.s)
IUGG Volumes 17G ravimeatnryd S pacTee chniquAepsp lietdo
1 Structurea ndD ynamicosfE arth's DeepI nterior GeodynamiacnsdO cean DynamBiocbsE .S chutz,
D.E .S mylainedR aymonHdid e( Eds.) AlleAnn dersCo1£nz,u Fdreo idevaaunxdM, i chaePla rke
2H ydrological ReaginmdeT sh eiSru bsurface (Eds.)
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Raymond A.P ri(ceE d.) 2H ighP ressure ReisneM airncehr aPlh ysics
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int heE arth Steven C.C oheann dP etVra nfte(kE ds.) 3H ighP ressuRrees earcAhp:p licattioEo anr tahn d
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TerranceJso hWn. H illhou(seE d.) MurlHi. M anghna(nEid s.)
GeophysMiocnaolgr ap8h3
IUGGV olume 18
NonlineDayrn aInicasn d
Predictaboifl ity
GeophysiPchaeln oInena
WilliaIm.N ewman
AndreGia brielov
Donald TLu.r cotte
Editors
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AmeriGceaonp hyUsniicoanl
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InternaUtniiooonnfGa elo deasnydG eophysics
Publiusnhdeetdrh a ee goifts h AeG UB ooBkso ard
LibroafCr oyn gCraetsasi oging-Diant-aPu blication
Nonlinedayrn amiacnsd p redictaboifgl eiotpyh ysipchaeln omen/a
WilliIa.mN ewman,A ndreGia brielDoovn,a lLd. T urcotetdei,t ors.
p.c m.- (Geophysimcoanlo gra;p 8h3)( IUGG; v.1 8)
Includbeisb liograprehfiecraeln ces.
ISBN0 -87590-469-6
1.G eodynamics2.. C haotbiech aviionrs ystems.3 .N onlinear
theoriesI.. N ewman,W illiIa.m II.G abrielAo.vM ,.
IIIT.u rcotDtoen,a lLda wson. IV.S eries.V . SerieIsU:G G (Series)
; v.1 8.
QE501.3.N6169 94
55O--dc20 94-20388
CIP
ISSN00:6 5-8448
ISBN0 -87590-469-6
Copyrigh1t99 4 byt heI nternatioUnnailo onf G eodesayn dG eophysaincdst heA merican
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CONTENTS
Preface
WilliIa.mN ewman,A ndreGia brielDoovn,a lLd. T urcottei x
Foreword
HelmuMto ritz xi
1.C haosA: H istoriPcearls pective
SirJ amesL ighthil1l
2.S eismicMiotdye linagn dE arthquaPkree dictAi oRne:v iew
AndreGia brielaonvdW illiIa.mN ewman 7
3.N onlineDayrn amicosft heT ransitfiroonmS tablSel iditnogC ycliSct ick-SilnRi opc k
YaojuGnu andT eng-foWnogn g 15
4.I st heD ynamicosft heL ithosphCehraeo tic?
Q.L ia ndE .N yland 37
5.D ynamicosfa SeismRiecg imeV:r ancea-CAa seH istory
Cezar-IoTarnif ua ndM irceRaa dulian4 3
6.T heP recursoofIr n stabifloirNt oyn lineSayrs temasn dI tAsp plicattioEo anr thquake
Predicn-t--itoheL oad-UnloRaeds ponRsaet iToh eory
Xiang-cYhiun C,a nY ina,n dX ue-zhoCnhge n 55
7.S tranAgtet ractionNr o nlineFalru ctuatoifoL nesn gtohf t heD ay( LOD)T imeS e�ies
R.K .T iwarJi.,G .N egia,n dK .N .N .R ao 61
8.S elf-OrganCirzietdi caClointsye:q uenfcoerSs t atisatnidcP sr edictaboifEl aitryt hquakes
PerB ak,K imC hristenasnednZ ,e evO lami 69
9.P eriod-DoubBliifnugr catainodCn h aotiPch enomeniana SinglDee greoef F reedoEml astic
Systewmi tha Two-StaVtaer iabFlrei ctiLoawn
NiuZ hireann dC henD angmin 75
10.N onlineDayrn amiMco delinogfE arthquaPkree diction
YaoliSnh iL,u minG enga,n dG uominZh ang 81
11.M ethodfso rI mprovitnhgeP redictoifoD ny namicParlo ceswsietsh S peciRaelf erentcote h e
AtmospherCiicr culation
JohanG rasmaann dP eteHro utekamer9 1
12.T heN onlineAasry mptotSitca goef t heR ayleigh-TaIynlsotra biwliitthWy i deB ubbleasn d
NarrowiSnpgi kes
V.M . CherniavasnkdiY u.M . Shtemler9 7
13.C orrelatDiiomne nsioofnt heS tranAgtet ractfoorrG eomagnetFiice lVda riations
Yu.S .T yupkiann dA . Ya.F eldstein1 03
PREFACE
Theg oaolf t hivso lumies t oe stablainsu hn derstandinTgh en exste to fa rticplreess ednatt wah icdhe monstrate
and interdiscicpoloipnearrayta imoonn gg eophysiacnisdt st hee xisteonfcn eo nlineairnit thyes oliEda rthL.i and
nonlineadry namicisWthsi.le t hel astth iryteya rhsa s Nylanedm plocya taloguseedi smdiacta f orw esteCrna nada
brougshutb stantiparlo greisnts h es tudoyft hea tmospherteo s howth e presenocfel ow-dimenscihoanoasTl.r ifua nd
and oceaans w elals o fc onvectiinot nh eE arthm'asn tle Radulieaxnp lotrheei ntermediates-ediespmrtiehcg imien
and coret,h en onlinreaerv olutiisoo nnl bye ginntionh ga ve time, spaancdee n,e rgfyo rV ranceRao,m anisau,g gesting
an impacotn thei nvestigoaftt ihoens oliEda rthT.h e possiblper ecursorYsi.ne ta l.e xplotrhee p ossibiolfi ty
probleomf p redictabiilnci htayo tniocn linseyasrt emiss usinlgo adirnagt eassan empiripcraelc urfsoorrC hinese
oneo ft hem osti mportaanntdd ifficsuulbtj eicntm so dem seismicanidt eym plotyh ipsr operttopy r edicat n umbeorf
nonlinesacri encIen.i tsa pplicattoig oeno physaincds, earthquakeTsh.e l asotf t hep apertsoi nvestigate observa­
especialelayr,t hquakper edictiiotnp ,r esenbtost ha tiondaalta i sd evotteodm oreg lobal isTsiuweasrie: ta l.
profouinndt ellecptuarlo bleanmd ani ssuwei tihm portant identais ftyr anagtet racantdo nro nlinfleuacrtua tioinnst he
socieitmapll ications. lengotfhd ay.
Thec ontributtioto hnisvs o lumhea veb een organized Thed evelopmoefnt th eoretmiocdaelli sng eophyshiacss
accorditnogi ntellecatrueaaalsn dm ethodologaipc­alp rovidvedi tanle wi nsigihnttsno o nlinpehaern omeannda,
proacheMso.s to ft hep aperdse awli tht hes oliEda rth, especiaealrltyh,q uapkree dictBiako ne.t a l.d eveloap
whiloet hefrosc uosn fl uidansd plasmaTsh.ep aperrsan ge self-organiczedr itica(lSiOtCy) m odelf ore arthquake
fromt hosdee aliwnigt he xperimenatanldo bservationaelv enantds explotrheec onsequenocfie tsss t atisatnidtc hse
treatmenotfrs ea lm ateriaanldss y steamsn dt heiarn alysisp,r edictaboifl eairttyh quakesW.hi leS OC hasb ecome
oftenb y modem nonlinteeacrh niquteots h,e t heoreticaslo mewhcaotn troveirnst ihanelo nlinceoamrm unitZyh,i ren
and computationmaold elinogf differegneto physicaanld Dangmicno nsidienrs teaad o ned egreeo ff reedom
systemInsd.e edt,h ivso lumeen compasnsoetso nlmyan y elastiscy stewmi tha two-stfartiec tliaownan d showt hat
disciplbiuntea sl sos patianadl tempordaolm aintsh at itcan bed escribbyeda familiFaeri genbasuemq uenecne
extenodv erm any orderosfm agnitude. routteoc haosF.i nalSlhyi,e ta la.l scoo nsidae crl assical
An outlinoef t heh istordiecvaell opmoefnt th ep roblem seto fm odelbsa seodn block-spring-ddaesshipgaonnt d
ofp redictabiispl rietsye nitnet dh efi rsotf t hea rticilne s showt heirre levatnoct eh et emporal, sapnadmt aiganli,­
thisv olumnea,m ely "ChAa Hoiss:t orPiecraslp ectbivye ,t"u ddei striboufts ieoins micity.
SirJ amesL ighthiWlhli.l et hiasr ticle focuses Ianlth meo sfmta lp arotf t hivso lumen,o nlineairnifl tuyi d
exclusiovnep lryo blehmasv inang u nderlyHianmigl toniane nvironmeinstc so nsiderGerda.s maann dH outekamer
characttehre,a ssemblaogfe p roblemcso nfrontbeyd presean vta rieotfym ethodfso ra ssessainndgr educing
geophysicarse r arelHya miltonainadnd isplaany e ven erroirnse stablishtihneig n itsitaatloe fa n onlinseyasrt em,
richaerrr aoyf p henomena. methodwsh oseu tileixttye nfdasrb eyontdh ea tmospheric
Gabrielanodv N ewman thesnh itfth ef ocutso t hes olid contexcto nsiderbedy thea uthorCsh.e miavskayn d
Eartehn vironmaenndtr evieswe ismicmiotdye linagn d Shtemlceorn sidtheer r oloef t heR ayleigh-Tianysltaobri li­
earthquakep redictitohni:sa rticplreo vidae sb ridge ty,a ndt hepo tentifaolr n umericpaalt hologiinet sh,e
between thev arioduiss cipltihnaehtsa ves hedl ighutp on simulatoifot nh eR ayleigh-Taiynlsotra bileiftfye'ocSnt
thee arthquakper edictpiroonb lemG.i vent heo verallman tle convectiFoinn.a lTlyyu,p kiannd Feldstceoinns ider
importanocfer heologanyd materpiraolp erttiheissse, c tiont hec orrelatdiiomne nsioofn t hes tranagtet racantdo r
continwuiethsan articblyGe u andW ong,i nw hicthh ey geomagnetifice lvda riatieovnisd,e nfcoerc haotbiech avior
investiignat theel aborattohreny o nlindeyanra micosf t he inth e magnetosphere.
transiftrioomsn t absllei ditnocg y clic stibcekh-asvliiionpr This volumper ovidae rse presentsaettoi fvp ea per(sa s
rocks. wella ss omei nvitceodn tributbiaosnesod)n theU nion
IX
Symposiu"mN onlineDayrn amicasn dP redictaboifl ittuyn atelthiys, a lsaor guefso rt hel acokf r eliapbrleed iction
CritiGceoaplh ysicPahle nomenap,a"r to ft het wentietdhu rincge rtain stagessu,c ahs i ntermediatfeo-rtecearms ting
GeneraAls sembloyft heI nternatiUonniaolno fG eodesy in the atmosphesrciice nancde ss hort-tperremd ictiinto hne
and Geophysichse,l idn V iennAau,g us1t9 9w1h,i chhe lp soliEda rtshc iences.
definet her olteh anto nlinearaintdyp redictabhialviet y Thirdth,e keyi ngrediiennp tr edictiiosan n a dequate
cometo occupyi nt heE artshc iencThees .p roductoifo n physicmaold elT.h em ajosru cceesnsj oyienda tmospheric
thivso lumef acemadn y challengIens a.d dititoont he scienicesl argedluye t ot hed evelopmeonft g eneral
nonlinreeavro luttihoanit s s weepimnugc ho fc ontempo­circulamtoidoenl sH.o weverb,ec ausoef t hem ultitoufd e
rarys ciencaen,o therre volutionr-e-vtihtea lizaotfi oni nteracmtecihnangi smsa ndt hea bsencoeffu ndamental
EasternE urope--adtdote hde c hallenTghei.sv olumies constituetqiuvaet iotnhse,rr ee mainnso a dequagteen eral
extraordidniavreirlisyne b otiht isn telleacntdui anlt erna­modelo fth e processients h el ithosphIenrt eh.eE arth
tioncaoln tent. scienctehsep, r incitphaelo retaidcvaaln caersec onnected
The editohrosp et hatth ivso lumwei lhle lpe stabliswhi tthh ed etaislteudd oyfn onlinrehaero loogffy a uzlotn es
someo ft het hemefso rfu rtheirn vestigianttinooo nn ­ and witht heun derstandionfgt her oleo fh ierarchical
lineariantdy, especially, prediinct thaegb eiolpihtyys icasle lf-organidzauteit oont hei nteracotfi loint hospheric
sciencTehse.S ymposiuwmh icwha st hes timulfuosrt his blockWsh.i lteh ep ractiocuatlc omoefw orki ne arthquake
volumeg eneratsedo mec onclusitohnasth aveb road predictiroenma inesm piricbaalsleytd h,ie d eaosfn onlinear
applicabtoi litthyeg eneraslu bjeancdt may provides cienacreee mployiendth e searfcohr p recursoprhye nom­
importanitn sigihntt ot hes electoifo funt urer esearche naa ndf ora ssesstihnerg e liaboifls iutcyhm ethods.
topics. We hopeth att hei nsigghatisn efdr omt hivso lumwei ll
Firstth,e a pplicaotfim oent hodosf n onlineasrc iences ervaes a sourcoefn ewr esearpcrho blefmosrg eophysi­
providaep so werfutlo oflo rt hes tudoyfp redictabboitlhi tcyi satnsd t heinro nlindeyanra micciosltl eagues.
in thea tmospheanrdi cs oliEda rths cienceCsh.a otic
behavioofnr o nlinseyasrt edmose nso te xclupdree dictabili­ Willia1.mN ewman
ty,b uti ntroduacneu sp pebro undo n thea bilittomay k e UniversoiftC ya lifornia
predictanido rnesn ders predictionsI npdreoebanda ,b ilistic. LosA ngeleCsa,l ifornia
importanqtu estiwohni cehm ergeisst haotfe stablitshhei ng
"predictabiolfi ptrye dictabilietsyt"i-matthieoo fn the AndreiG abrielov
time-scoavleerw hichf orecaasrtesr eliabgliev etnh e UniversoiftT yo ronto
currenstt atoeft hes ystem. TorontCoa,n ada
Second,a commonf eatuorfema ny atmospheanrdi c
soliEda rthp henomenias an essentihailelrya rchical DonalLd. T urcotte
structuThirse,. int um,ma y imposae b oundo n predict­ CornelUln iversity
abildietpye ndionntg h esc aloefs patio-temapvoerraalg ing. IthacNae,w York
Thusd,i fferteynpteo sf m ethodasr er equirefdo rm aking
predictiaotnd si ffersecnatl weist hitnh eh ierarcUhnyf.o r- Editors
x
FOREWORD
Thes cientwiofircko fth e InternatiUonniaolon f G eodesya ndG eophysi(cIsU GG)
isp rimariclayr rioedu tt hrouigthses v en assoc iatiolnAsG:( brieflGye,o desyl)A,S PEl
(SeismololgAyV)C,E l( VolcanololgAyG)A,( GeomagnetislmAM)A,P ( Meteorology),
lAPSO( Oceanographanyd )l,A HS( HydrologTyh)ew .o rko ft hesaes sociatiiso ns
documented inv ariowuasy s.
NonliDynneaamria csndP redictaobfGei olpihytys iPchaeln oimsoe nneo afa group
ofv olumepsu blisjhoedi nbtylI yU ooan d AGU thatare baseodn w orkp resenattet dh e
Inter-AssocSiyampotsiioan a sp arotf t hel UGG GeneraAls semblyh elid nV ienna,
AustriinaA ,u gus1t9 91E.a chs ymposiwuams o rganizedb ys everoafIlU GG'mse mber
associatanido ncso mpristeodp iocfsi nterdiscirpellineavryan cThee. s ubjecatr easo ft he
symposiaw erec hosesnu cthh atth ewyo ulbed ofw idei nterAelssot,.t hes peakers were
selecteadc cordinangdl yi,n m any casesi,n vitpeadp erosf r eviecwh aracwteerre
soliciTthede.s erioefss ymposiwae red esignteodg ivea pictuorfec ontemporary
geophysicaaclt ivirteys,u latnsd,p robletmoss cienthiasvtisn ag g enerianlt eriens t
geodeasnyd g eophysics.
Inv iewo fth e importanocfet hesien terdiscispylmpionsairaly,U GGi sg ratetfuol
AGU forh avinpgu ti tsu nique resoiungr eocpehsy sicpaulb lisheixnpegr tise and
experienactte h ed ispoosfal lU GG.T hienss ures accuratew oerdkii,nt corliuadthlie n g
useo fpe er reviewiSnog t.h er eadecra ne xpectt ofi nde xpertpluyb lisshceide ntific
materioaflg enerianlt eraensdgt e nerraell evance.
HelmuMto ritz
PresidelnUtG,G
Xl