Table Of ContentNEW RISKS
Issues and Management
ADVANCES IN RISK ANALYSIS
This series is edited by the Society for Risk Analysis.
Volume 1 THE ANALYSIS OF ACTUAL VERSUS PERCEIVED
RISKS
Edited by Vincent T. Covello, W. Gary Flamm,
Joseph V. Rodricks, and Robert G. Tardiff
Volume 2 LOW-PROBABILITY/ HIGH-CONSEQUENCE
RISK ANALYSIS
Issues, Methods, and Case Studies
Edited by Ray A. Waller and Vincent T. Covello
Volume 3 RISK ANALYSIS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR
Edited by Chris Whipple and Vincent T. Covello
Volume 4 UNCERTAINTY IN RISK ASSESSMENT,
RISK MANAGEMENT, AND DECISION MAKING
Edited by Vincent T. Covello, Lester B. Lave,
Alan Moghissi, and V. R. R. Uppuluri
Volume 5 RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT
Edited by Lester B. Lave
Volume6 NEW RISKS
Issues and Management
Edited by Louis A. Cox, Jr. and Paolo F. Ricci
Volume 7 RISK ASSESSMENT IN SETTING NATIONAL
PRIORITIES
Edited by James J. Bonin and Donald E. Stevenson
A Continuation Order Plan is available for this series. A continuation order will bring delivery of
each new volume immediately upon publication. Volumes are billed only upon actual shipment.
For further information please contact the publisher.
NEW RISKS
Issues and Management
Edited by
Jr.
Louis A. Cox,
US West Advanced Technologies
Englewood, Colorado
and
Paolo F. Ricci
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, California
SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, LLC
Llbrary of Congr.ss Cataloglng-ln-Publlcatlon Data
Ne. risks : issues and .. nageoent I edited by Louis A. Cex, Jr. and
Paolo F. Riee1.
p. e •. -- (Advanees In ri.k analy.i. ; v. 6)
"Preeeedings of the annual ••• ting of the Soeiety for Ri.k
Analysis, held Nove.ber 9-12, 1986, in Boston, Massaehu.etts"--T.p.
verso.
Include. bibliographieal referenee •.
ISBN 978-1-4899-0761-5 ISBN 978-1-4899-0759-2 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4899-0759-2
1. Teehnology--Risk assess.ent--Congresses. 1. Cox, Louis A.
II. Ricei, Poolo F. III. Society for Risk Analysis. IV. Ser ies.
TI74.5.N48 1990
363.1--dc20 90-7162
CIP
Proceedings of the annual meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis,
held November 9-12, 1986, in Boston, Massachusetts
© 1990 Springer Science+Business Media New York
Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in 1990
Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1s t edition 1990
AII rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilm ing,
recording, or otherwise, without written permis sion from the Publisher
Preface
This volume contains the proceedings of the 1986 annual meeting and conference of
the Society for Risk Analysis. It provides a detailed view of both mature disciplines and
emerging areas within the fields of health, safety, and environmental risk analysis as they
existed in 1986. In selecting and organizing topics for this conference, we sought both (i)
to identify and include new ideas and application areas that would be of lasting interest to
risk analysts and to users of risk analysis results, and (ii) to include innovative methods and
applications in established areas of risk analysis. In the three years since the conference,
many of the topics presented there for the first time to a broad risk analysis audience have
become well developed-and sometimes hotly debated-areas of applied risk research.
Several, such as the public health hazards from indoor air pollutants, radon in the home,
high-voltage electric fields, and the AIDS epidemic, have been the subjects of headlines
since 1986. Older areas, such as hazardous waste site ranking and remediation, air
emissions dispersion modeling and exposure assessment, transportation safety, seismic and
nuclear risk assessment, and occupational safety in the chemical industry, have continued to
receive new treatments and to benefit from advances in quantitative risk assessment
methods, as documented in the theoretical and methodological papers in this volume.
A theme of the meeting was the importance of new technologies and the new and
uncertain risks that they create. Thus, several comparatively new applications for
quantitative risk assessment are addressed here-risks from biotechnology, genetic
engineering, and microorganisms; from innovative technologies, projects, and practices in
the telecommunications, transportation and energy industries; and from natural and man
made threats to computer systems. Methodological themes and issues in cancer risk
analysis that are now much debated also appear here. These include (i) the use of
"biologically motivated" stochastic models of carcinogenesis as opposed to more traditional
statistical models; (ii) the relation (if any) between acute toxicity and carcinogenicity; and
(iii) the conservatism of the one-hit statistical model for carcinogenesis.
Particularly noteworthy at the conference was a strong recognition, reflected in these
papers, of the roles of societal risk management institutions and policy instruments as
indispensable parts of practical risk management-especially tort law, regulation,
insurance, and negotiated compensation and conflict resolution. Where previous SRA
annual meetings had perhaps more strongly emphasized engineering detenninations of
"acceptable risk" levels and safety factors, the 1986 meeting saw risk acceptability issues
being treated squarely from a social and policy perspective. Many papers in this volume
are concerned with the interaction between corporate environmental and risk management
decision making and the liability, insurance, and governmental risk management systems
that shape a company's economic and societal environment. There is increased awareness
of the importance of both effective risk communication and decision-making partnerships
and agreements between industry and the public, between industry and government
decision makers, and between management and labor for occupational risks. These themes
are starting to draw industrial health and safety risk management practices away from
reliance on their engineering roots and single-decision-maker orientation, and towards the
v
social sciences and an emphasis on participatory and group decision making about risks.
The recently emerged sub-field of risk communication has confirmed the importance and
practical value of this shift in perspective for real-world corporate risk managers.
The public-sector side of health and safety risk management decision making also
receives innovative treatments in this volume. Decision-analytic and cost-benefit
approaches to public risk and environmental resource management are well represented.
Several papers discuss public perceptions of uncertain risks and the roles of uncertainty
quantification, uncertainty management, and uncertainty communication in shaping public
and private-sector responses to potential hazards. The involvement and participation of the
public in risk management decision processes is an increasingly important part of practical
risk-management for the public as well as the private sector. This trend, and the resulting
need for public risk managers to communicate risk information effectively to the public and
media, rather than only dealing competently with technical risk and decision analysis
issues, have become increasingly recognized by analysts and decision makers and are well
discussed in the papers collected here.
In summary, the 1986 meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis raised many of the
new risk assessment and risk management issues that have filled the literature since. The
papers in this volume introduce and explain many of the technical and research directions in
which the field of risk analysis is now moving. The new technology areas and applications
described here also raise a number of research challenges that have yet to be adequately
addressed. Thus, this collection both provides a thorough introduction to currently active
areas in health, safety, and environmental risk analysis and presents a set of challenging
problems for new researchers and old hands in the field. We look forward to future
responses to these challenges.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Many people deserve thanks for the high quality of the conference presentations and
the papers: the authors, first and foremost; the New England Chapter of the Society for Risk
Analysis, which organized and hosted the meeting; and the expert organizers and
facilitators at the national level of the Society. Professors Roger Kasperson (Conference
Chair) and Paolo Ricci (Program Chair) thank the many individuals at the local and national
levels without whom the meeting would not have been possible. Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
supported Drs. Cox and Ricci in organizing the program. On behalf of the Society, we also
give special thanks to Lorraine Abbott and Katie Ingersoll of Tee-Com, Inc., whose
patience, persistence, and dedication to quality have made the production of this book a
reality.
Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
U S WEST Advanced Technologies
Paolo F. Ricci
UCLA, School of Public Health and
UC Berkeley (Bolt Hall) School of Law
November, 1989
vi
Contents
Risk Management for Controlling Pollution Liability in a Corporate
Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
M. Feldman, L. D. Attaway, and R. F. Hahn
Corporate Management of Liability Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
J. E. Selvidge
The Independent Auditors' Assessment and Conveyance of Risk (Preliminary
Results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
T. A. Buchman
Strict Liability and Insurance Under Loss Misestimation ......................... 21
R. Yaksick
Comparison of EPA, ILO, and World Bank Guidelines for Risk Identification,
Assessment, and Management of Chemical Emergencies ....•.................. 23
S. C. Mo"is, P. D. Moskowitz, V. M. Fthenakis, and L. D. Hamilton
Decision Analysis in Environmental Risk Management: Applications to Acid
Deposition and Air Toxics ............................................... 33
D. W.North
Causality in Toxicologic Risk Assessment and Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
J. LR Chandler
Environmentally Induced Cancer: A Model for Estimating Excess Cancer
Risks Based on a Two-Stage Model of Carcinogenesis ......................... 55
J.Mauskopf
Is the One-Hit Model of Carcinogenesis Conservative? Evidence from the
National Toxicology Program's Bioassay Database ............................ 65
D. Spiegelman, J. C. Bailar, Ill, E. A. C. Crouch, and R. Shaikh
Carcinogenicity Versus Acute Toxicity: Is There a Relationship? .................. 77
B. Metzger, E. Crouch, andR. Wilson
Incorporating More Science Into Cancer Dose-Response Extrapolations ............. 87
R. L. Sielken, Jr.
Parameters Involved in Risk Assessment for Environmental Release of
Biotechnology Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
P. J. Bridgen and E. Anderson
vii
Do Genetically Engineered Microorganisms Pose Risks to Ecosystems? . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
P. W. Flanagan
Control of Microbial Pathogens in Poultry by Irradiation: Issues Related
to Risks and Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
R. Krystynak
Exposure Assessment for Sterilized Medical Devices: Implications
for Microbiological Risk Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
H. C. Hammond and W. C. Dierksheide
Risks in New Technologies-Controlling Toxic and Hazardous Gas Releases
During Photovoltaic Cell Manufacture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
P. D. Moskowitz, V. M. Fthenakis, L. D. Hamilton, P. Kalb, andJ. C. Lee
Application of Systems Analysis Techniques to Vulnerability Studies of
Complex Installations .................................................. 135
T. F. Bott and D. F. Cameron
Seismic Hazard in the Eastern United States: Bounding the Uncertainty ............ 143
R. K. McGuire, J. C. Stepp, and G. R. Toro
Thinking the Unthinkable: Preparing for Global Disaster ........................ 153
R. Cantor and S. Rayner
Risk Aversion in Agricultural Policy Analysis: A Closer Look at Meaning,
Modeling, and Measurement ............................................ 159
M.D. Weiss
Evaluating Risks to Agricultural Production from Acid Deposition ................ 167
P. D. Moskowitz, N. L. Oden, W. H. Medeiros, and E. A. Coveney
Economic Principles of Risk Management in Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
E.Loelunan
Assessing Risk from Dermal Exposure at Hazardous Waste Sites .................. 185
E. T. Hawkins, E. A. Ryan, and S. L. Santos
Bioaccumulation of TCDD in Lake Ontario Fish: Laboratory and Field
Studies in Support of Hazardous Waste Landfill Risk Assessments .............. 191
N. S. Shifrin, L. W. Kaul, and L. Benavides
Risk Assessment of Indoor Air Pollution by Termiticides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
B.Molholt
Fuzzy Risk Analysis: Theory and Application ................................. 209
C.Preyssl
Assessment of the Acceptability of the Proposals for a Fixed Link Across
the English Channel .•................................................. 221
J. C. Chicken and M. R. Hayns
Risk Assessment and Management: A Regional Approach ...................... 229
R. Coulon, J. Aigueperse, F. Anguenot, and G. Bresson
viii
Scientific and Technological Inputs to Nonroutine Decision Making by Three
Groups: Scientists, Government Officials, Corporate Managers ................. 241
C. McLaughlin, N. Kathuria, R. Zmud, and F. Lynn
Confidence in Technologies: Interaction Between Publics and Industries ........... 251
A.K. Wolfe
Ritualism in Communicating Risk Information ................................ 259
C. Needleman
Summary of Panel Discussion on "The Role of Private and Public Sector
Insurance and Compensation for Environmental Pollution" .................... 269
H. Kunreuther and S. Wassersug
Risk Management Through Market Incentives: Liability and Insurance ............ 277
M. T. Katzman
A Comparison of the Human Exposure Model and the Air Emissions Risk
Assessment Model .................................................... 283
L.B. Gratt
Comparisons Between Desktop Dispersion Calculations and Computerized Air
Dispersion Model Results When Results Are to Be Used in a Risk Assessment ..... 291
C. G. Graves
Livermore Risk Analysis Methodology: A Structured Decision Analytic
Tool for Information Systems Risk Management ............................. 301
S.B. Guarro
LAVA: A Conceptual Framework for Automated Risk Analysis .................. 315
S. T. Smith, J. J. Lim, J. R. Phillips, R. M. Tisinger, D. C. Brown,
and P. D. FitzGerald
A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Program for Analyzing Security Risks ............ 331
L.A. Cox, Jr.
A General Purpose Computer Shell for Risk Analysis ........................... 341
L. J. Hoffman
A Preliminary Model of Radon Exposure .................................... 349
G. 0. Rogers, N. P. Hummon, and D. J. Strom
Power-Frequency Fields: Risk Without Measure .............................. 359
H. K. Florig
Computer Security Risk Analysis ........................................... 371
L. J. Hoffman
Diffuse Risks from Adversarial Sources: An Emerging Field of Risk Analysis . . . . . . . 3 79
R.Brown
Uncertainty and Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Framework
for Analysis .......................................................... 389
K. T. Bogen and R. C. Spear
ix
