Networks of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders

235 Pages·2014·5.895 MB·English

by  Bruce J. West, Malgorzata Turalska, Paolo Grigolini (auth.)

Computational Social Sciences
Bruce J. West
Malgorzata Turalska
Paolo Grigolini
Networks
of Echoes
Imitation, Innovation and Invisible
Leaders
Computational Social Sciences
A series of authored and edited monographs that utilize quantitative and compu-
tational methods to model, analyze, and interpret large-scale social phenomena.
Titleswithintheseriescontainmethodsandpracticesthattestanddeveloptheories
of complex social processes through bottom-up modeling of social interactions.
Of particular interest is the study of the co-evolution of modern communication
technologyandsocialbehaviorandnorms,inconnectionwithemergingissuessuch
astrust,risk,security,andprivacyinnovelsocio-technicalenvironments.
ComputationalSocialSciencesisexplicitlytransdisciplinary:quantitativemethods
from fields such as dynamical systems, artificial intelligence, network theory,
agent-based modeling, and statistical mechanics are invoked and combined with
state-of-the-artminingand analysis of largedata sets to help us understandsocial
agents, their interactionson and offline, and the effect of these interactions at the
macro level. Topics include, but are not limited to social networks and media,
dynamics of opinions, cultures and conflicts, socio-technical co-evolution, and
social psychology. Computational Social Sciences will also publish monographs
and selected edited contributions from specialized conferences and workshops
specifically aimed at communicating new findings to a large transdisciplinary
audience.Afundamentalgoaloftheseriesistoprovideasingleforumwithinwhich
commonalitiesanddifferencesintheworkingsofthisfieldmaybediscerned,hence
leadingtodeeperinsightandunderstanding.
SeriesEditors
ElisaBertino LarryLiebovitch
PurdueUniversity,WestLafayette, QueensCollege,CityUniversity
IN,USA ofNewYork,Flushing,NY,USA
JacobFoster SorinMatei
UniversityofChicago,IL,USA PurdueUniversity,WestLafayette,
IN,USA
NigelGilbert
UniversityofSurrey,Guildford,UK AntonNijholt
UniversityofTwente,Entschede,
JenniferGolbeck
TheNetherlands
UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,
MD,USA RobertSavit
UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor,
JamesKitts
MI,USA
UniversityofMassachusetts,
Amherst,MA,USA AlessandroVinciarelli
UniversityofGlasgow,Scotland
Forfurthervolumes:
http://www.springer.com/series/11784
FiguredrawnbySharonS.West
Bruce J. West Malgorzata Turalska
•
Paolo Grigolini
Networks of Echoes
Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders
123
BruceJ.West MalgorzataTuralska
DepartmentofPhysics DepartmentofPhysics
DukeUniversity DukeUniversity
Durham,NC,USA Durham,NC,USA
InformationSciencesDirectorate
PaoloGrigolini
ArmyResearchOffice
DepartmentofPhysics
ResearchTrianglePark,NC,USA
UniversityofNorthTexas
Denton,TX,USA
ISBN978-3-319-04878-9 ISBN978-3-319-04879-6(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-04879-6
SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2014931488
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Preface
Therearealargenumberofexcellentbooksthatadopttheexcitingnewperspective
ofnetworkingtoexplaincomplexphenomenaineconomics,communications,soci-
ology,cognition,epidemiology,andmanyotherareasofscientificandengineering
investigation. The network strategy has provided a quantitative way to overcome
the barrier of complexity and provide the understanding that has so long eluded
scholarsusingmoretraditionalmethods.Thisapproachhasledtoaspateofpopular
booksthatpurporttoexplainsuchthingsasirrationaldecisionmaking,groupthink,
reachingconsensus,formationsoffishandbirds,andthehysteriaofcrowdsalong
withawiderangeofothercomplexphenomena.Inparallelwiththesenontechnical
bookscameanincreasingnumberofmonographs,referencebooks,andtextbooks
devotedtothetheoryofnetworksandtheirapplications.TheNetworksofEchoesis
ahybridofthesetwogenresbutismorereadilyidentifiedwiththelatter.
Thestrengthofthepresentbook,andwhatmakesitunlikeothersofitsilk,isthat
we discussonlya singledynamicmodelbutwe doso in averydetailedway.The
decision-makingmodelthat we introduceuses a minimal number of fundamental
assumptions that are based on observations considered to be foundational. The
intent is to communicate the excitement of scientific discovery with a level of
explanation usually restricted to science popularizations, while at the same time
retainingmathematicalrigor.Consequently,itcouldserveasanexcellentsubsidiary
text to almost any technical interdisciplinary program. The book would appeal to
the technically trained through the emphasis on dynamics that is typically absent
from other texts addressing the same and related material. At the same time,
we believe it would draw the attention of a more general audience interested
in the social and cognitive applications of networking through the large number
of computationally generated figures accompanied by extensive discussion of the
social/cognitive implications of mathematics. Much of the formal mathematical
detailismadeavailableinaseriesofchapter-endappendicesinordernottointerrupt
the narrativeflow, which we hope is a way to communicatemoreeffectivelywith
theamateurwhilesimultaneouslyholdingtheinterestoftheprofessional.
Usingthedecision-makingmodel,weshowthroughacombinationofnumerical
computation,formalanalysis,andreasonablespeculationthatthemostinteresting
v
vi Preface
processesfoundinreal-worldnetworksareemergentpropertiesofthissinglemodel.
This approach has the advantage of tracing multiple complex phenomena, which
ariseinsystemsasdifferentassocietyandthebrain,backtoasinglegenericsource.
Thatsourceisthephasetransitioningobservedintheevasiveflightpatternsofbirds
andschoolsoffish,documentedintheconnectionsmadebetweenviolentmobsand
peacefuldemonstrations,andrecordedintheconsensusreachedbyheterogeneous
groups.Thecriticalcomplexityinthesephenomenaisshowntobeinextricablytied
to network dynamics and not necessarily dependent on the detailed mechanisms
operatingintheseparatedisciplines.
Thenetworkswediscussarebasedonthesimpleideathatallpeopleeverywhere
imitate one another.We raise this assumptionto the levelof a hypothesisbecause
we find the implications of imitation to be truly remarkable. The story of those
implicationsiswhatmakesthisbookworthreading.Thenetworksofechoesisthe
tenuousstructurethatindividualsconstructthroughtheirimperfectimitationofone
another. This imitation is found to create a new kind of leadership, one in which
leadersareinvisible.
Whoaretheinvisibleleaders?Theshortansweristhattheinvisibleleadersare
those that stand in the shadows but who determinewhat happensin the spotlight.
Theyarethedecisionmakersinthebackroom,somewouldsaytheyarethetop1%
of income earners, and others would see them as the protagonistsin a conspiracy
theory.Evenwhentheyarenotidentifiedtheyarepostulated,becausesocietydoes
notbelievethatthepersonoutinfrontisthe“real”leader;theyfeelthattheremust
besomeonebehindthatpersonwhoismorecompetent.Thethesisofthisbookand
theresultofourresearchconstitutealongeranswer,thatbeingaleaderisoftennot
voluntary and that the leadership role is always transient. Leaders emerge within
a complex network, guide its behavior for varying lengths of time, and then are
silentlyreplacedbyotherequallyinvisibleleaders.
Literature is filled with invisible leaders from those who employ the direct
strategyofLadyMacbethconvincingherhusbandtokilltheking,tothedeviousand
shroudedsuggestionsof Iagowhisperedin Othello’searabouthiswife. Butthese
dark literary figures have their brighter counterparts in the real world. President
RonaldReaganoncesaid:“Itisamazingwhatyoucanaccomplishin Washington
ifyoudon’tcarewhogetsthecredit.”Heunderstoodverywellthatthetruegame-
changing ideas often come from people we never heard of. The ideas from this
selectgroupareunceremoniouslyimplementedbypoliticiansandCEOsinpositions
of power and control. A person who does not seek recognition for an idea, but
is satisfied with seeing it implemented, can have a long career as an invisible
leader. But to understand this role requires that we examine how individuals and
organizationsareintraconnectedandinterconnected.
Preface vii
This book is written from the perspective of three physicists, and therefore we
develop a model, a simple model from which we can wring out every ounce of
insight.
ResearchTrianglePark,NC,USA BruceJ.West
Durham,NC,USA MalgorzataTuralska
Denton,TX,USA PaoloGrigolini
October2013

Contents
1 NetworkingPerspective ..................................................... 1
1.1 ALittleHistory ......................................................... 4
1.1.1 LinkingPhysicalandHumanNetworks....................... 7
1.1.2 OurStrategyforUnderstanding................................ 9
1.2 ChoiceandLeadership.................................................. 12
1.2.1 StochasticDecisions............................................ 13
1.2.2 Conformity...................................................... 14
1.2.3 CutMeaSlice .................................................. 16
1.2.4 DecisionMaking................................................ 18
1.3 TieingItAllTogether................................................... 21
Bibliography................................................................... 24
2 ComplexityPrimer........................................................... 27
2.1 ThreeRoadstoComplexity ............................................ 27
2.2 ComplexityProperties.................................................. 33
2.2.1 UncertaintyandChaos ......................................... 35
2.3 EntropyandInformation................................................ 38
2.3.1 PhysicalEntropy................................................ 41
2.3.2 InformationEntropy............................................ 43
2.3.3 InformationandMaxwell’sDemon............................ 44
2.4 QualitiesofComplexity ................................................ 47
2.4.1 SimplicitytoComplexity....................................... 49
2.4.2 StatisticsthatwillMatter....................................... 51
2.5 AViewfromAbove..................................................... 52
2.6 Appendix2.............................................................. 54
2.6.1 DiffusionEntropyAnalysis .................................... 54
2.6.2 GeneratingInformation......................................... 57
2.6.3 DistinguishingChaosfromNoise.............................. 58
2.6.4 TwoKindsofAverages......................................... 61
Bibliography................................................................... 62
ix